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According to Redfin, a US real estate company, US home prices rose 0.27% in July, essentially unchanged from the previous month.Futures Market Summary | Tuesday, August 18th, CCTV News Highlights: 1. Zhu Rongjis remains were cremated in Beijing. 2. Xi Jinping held a ceremony to welcome the Ecuadorian Presidents visit to China. 3. Xi Jinping held talks with the Ecuadorian President. 4. Li Qiang signed a State Council decree promulgating the "Decision of the State Council on Amending the Regulations on the Management of Housing Provident Funds". 5. Zhao Leji chaired the 71st meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress, deciding that the 24th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress will be held in Beijing from August 25th to 28th. 6. Multiple measures further stimulate the vitality of the lower-tier market. 7. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, my country will accelerate the construction of a modern oil and gas industry system. 8. The Yangtze River Deltas foreign trade scale reached a new high, with "new momentum" leading high-quality development. 9. The Macao SAR government officially announced its third five-year plan. 10. The overall marine ecological condition of the South China Sea is expected to remain stable by 2025. 11. Two departments allocated another 60 million yuan to support Henans flood control, disaster relief, and rescue work. 12. The multinational corporation cash pooling policy has been extended nationwide. 13. The annual target for real-time settlement of medical insurance funds has been achieved ahead of schedule. 14. my country has included 72 types of products in 6 major categories, including building doors and windows, into the green building materials certification scope. 15. The new passenger inspection area at Hengqin Port has seen over 110 million passenger trips. 16. Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant Unit 7 has entered the nuclear commissioning phase. 17. The core structure installation of the Qitai Radio Telescope in Xinjiang has been completed. 18. A 99,000-cubic-meter ultra-large ethane and ethylene transport ship was delivered today. 19. El Niño is rapidly developing and is likely to become the strongest in history. 20. The Russian Foreign Minister criticized Japan for attempting to cover up its aggressive military movements by attacking Russia. 21. The US says it will not extend the memorandum of understanding; Iran says it will not accept the ultimatum. 22. Meetings between the US special envoy and Hamas and the Israeli prime minister have made limited progress. 23. Russia warns Britain about Ukraines use of British drones to strike deep into Russian territory. 24. More than 220,000 Canadians petition to expel the U.S. ambassador.On August 18th, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) released a research report titled "Mainland Enterprises Global Expansion: Hong Kong as the Preferred Service Platform," showing a continued rise in the willingness of mainland enterprises to expand their international business. The report surveyed 2,015 mainland enterprises in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Central and Western regions, with 94% expressing interest in developing in countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, a significant increase from 73% in 2023. At a press conference, HKTDC Research Director Pang Ming pointed out that compared to three years ago, enterprises willingness to go global has increased substantially, targeting not only emerging markets but also traditional markets. The survey showed that 91% of surveyed enterprises intend to expand into the ASEAN market, while over 40% chose developed European countries, reflecting a more comprehensive internationalization strategy.August 18th - A joint analysis by the German credit reporting agency Credit Reform and the Centre for European Economic Research shows that more than 180,000 businesses in Germany will cease operations by 2025, an increase of nearly 10% year-on-year, the highest number in nearly 20 years. According to a report by the German Press Agency (dpa) on the 18th, the number of business closures in Germany in 2025 is second only to 2007, when nearly 208,000 businesses closed. Patrick-Ludwig Hanch, an economist at Credit Reform, said that the current "crisis is spreading throughout the entire economy," and unlike in the past, some previously well-performing businesses are now choosing to close. The analysis points out that the number of business closures increased in almost all sectors of German society last year, with approximately 15,000 catering and accommodation businesses ceasing operations, an increase of 15% year-on-year.August 18th - The accounting lobbying group ICAEW stated that UK employment data has reduced the likelihood of a Bank of England rate hike in September, given that labor market conditions appear poised to help curb inflation by suppressing wage growth. ICAEW Chief Economist Suren Thiru said, "The UK labor market remains in a state of low liquidity stagnation, with employers reluctant to hire, lay off, or significantly raise wages due to rising costs, exacerbated global headwinds, and increased policy uncertainty." The decrease in job vacancies indicates shrinking labor demand, and speculation about the autumn government budget may dampen employers hiring intentions.

Technical Market Outlook and Review – 9 February

Cory Russell

Feb 09, 2023 15:52

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S&P 500

Major US equity indices were on the ropes during the US morning session, with the S&P 500 trading as low as 1.0%.


The technical picture for the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes, however, remains interesting and largely supportive of further outperformance. The following is a reminder of where I left the bigger picture in recent analysis, albeit slightly modified to reflect current price movement:


The monthly chart has remained in a dominant uptrend since early 2009. We had two notable corrections in that time, one in early 2020 (COVID), dropping 35%, and one in play since early 2022 (27% from 4,818, as of writing) which was accompanied by negative divergence out of the Relative Strength Index (RSI).


The weekly chart connected with Quasimodo resistance at 4,177, closely shadowed by the 4,325 15 August high (2022). Should sellers take hold, a retest of the recently breached trendline resistance (taken from the high at 4,818) could unfold and offer support. However, backing further buying on this timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) ventured above the upper boundary of an ascending triangle between 53.72 and 30.47. This emphasises positive momentum until reaching the overbought threshold (70.00). While these triangles are generally found in uptrends, they can also forge reversal signals.


Out of the daily timeframe, 4,087 support had its upper space tested this week, a level that delivered strong resistance between September 2022 and January 2023. Given we are still holding ground north of the support, and a Golden Cross presented itself: the 50-day simple moving average (3,964) crossing above the 200-day simple moving average (3,946), price recoiling from its current location and running for the 4,325 15 August high mentioned on the weekly scale could materialise, closely followed by a daily 100% projection (AB=CD harmonic resistance) at 4,378.


H1 support from 4,100 and trendline support, drawn from the low 3,885, have withstood downside efforts. Beyond these levels point to support from 4,050 and a neighbouring trendline support, taken from the low 3,803, while pursuing higher ground focusses on Quasimodo resistance at 4,183, followed by a Quasimodo support-turned potential resistance at 4,219.