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On May 4th, German Chancellor Merz stated on May 3rd that the recent US decision to reduce its troop presence in Germany was "unrelated" to his criticisms of the war with Iran. Speaking on German television channel ARD, Merz said he was not surprised by the US governments decision to reduce troop levels, adding, "What weve heard these past few days isnt all new. The situation may have indeed escalated somewhat, but this is not a new development." Merz stated that he would not abandon cooperation with US President Trump, saying, "For us, the United States remains the most important partner in NATO." He emphasized that the USs nuclear sharing arrangements have not been reduced in any way, and there are no restrictions on the US commitment to providing nuclear deterrence to the NATO region. Merz also stated that the Tomahawk cruise missiles promised by the US in 2024 will not be deployed in Germany for the time being, because "the Americans dont even have enough for themselves right now."According to the Financial Times, several banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, are looking to shift risk to avoid being “overwhelmed” by data center debt.On May 4th, an Al Jazeera reporter pointed out that regardless of what is currently being discussed at the negotiating table, Iranians and Americans are speaking two different languages. What we are seeing may simply be negotiations to maintain dialogue, but this does not guarantee that unexpected events will not occur, triggering a new round of intense conflict. He believes that the differences between the two sides are difficult to bridge. When the US sets "surrender" as its bottom line, while Iran rejects any proposals that approach this situation, he sees no substance in the negotiations. However, the current situation presents a two-way pressure scenario: the US is pressuring the Iranian economy, while Iran is pressuring the global economy. It remains to be seen who will back down first. The risk now is that this situation, perceived as pressure from both sides, could escalate into a stalemate. In this scenario, war would once again loom, especially if Israel were to intervene to break the deadlock.According to Israeli media outlet Ynet, Israel is preparing for an escalation of the situation and has expressed skepticism about the US strategy of containing Iran.On May 4th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held separate meetings with the Prime Ministers of Norway, Finland, the United Kingdom, and the Czech Republic in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, on May 3rd. During his meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is willing to launch the next round of trilateral negotiations, with achieving a just and dignified peace being its core demand. Zelenskyy and Starmer also discussed support for Ukraines energy sector. Zelenskyy briefed Starmer on the situation on the front lines and the Russian attacks on Ukraine, emphasizing the need for a unified European air defense system.

Stop Relying on Russia, Ukraine Tells Europe Following Gas Shutdown

Aria Thomas

Apr 28, 2022 09:35

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Europe should wean itself off Russia's commerce after Moscow cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland for failing to pay in roubles, Ukraine said on Wednesday, as the cut revealed the continent's shortcomings and divides.


The decision, described as "blackmail" by European leaders, comes as Russia's economy wilts under sanctions and Western countries continue to deliver additional armaments to Kyiv despite Kremlin warnings to back off.


Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), Russia's monopoly on gas exports, has paused gas supply "due to a lack of rouble payments," as required in a directive issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin to mitigate the impact of sanctions.


"The sooner everyone in Europe accepts that they cannot rely on Russia for trade, the sooner stability in European markets can be guaranteed," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated late Wednesday.


While the European Commission's president described Gazprom's plan as "yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as a tool of blackmail," EU ambassadors pressed the executive for further clarity on whether transferring euros violated sanctions.


On May 2, France will host a conference of the EU's energy ministers to decide how to respond to Russia's action.


Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said Russia remained a trustworthy energy source and denied engaging in blackmail.


He declined to disclose how many countries had agreed to pay for gas in roubles, although other European clients reported normal gas deliveries.


Ukraine claimed on the battlefield that Russian troops had achieved successes in the east.


Russia reported a series of explosions and a fire at an armaments storage on its side of the border. Kyiv referred to the blasts as "karma."


Ukraine claimed that Russian forces used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a pro-Ukrainian gathering in Kherson, Ukraine's first major city. The center of Kherson was struck late Wednesday by a succession of loud explosions produced by rockets, the Ria News agency said.


The invasion of Ukraine has turned towns and cities to rubble and driven almost 5 million people to go abroad in a conflict that has sparked fears of a wider battle in the West, something that has not been considered in decades.


Moscow refers to it as a "special operation" aimed at disarming Ukraine. Ukraine and its supporters have described the conflict as an unjustified act of aggression.

FEARS OF RECESSION

Given the EU's reliance on Russian energy, the European Commission has stated that EU gas importers may participate in Russia's payment plan if certain requirements are met.


Uniper, Germany's largest importer, stated that it could pay without violating any laws. Austria and Hungary, among others, have shown a willingness to follow this path.


Bulgaria and Poland, both former Soviet satellites that have since joined the EU and NATO, are the only two European countries whose Gazprom contracts are set to expire at the end of 2022, signaling the start of their quest for alternatives.


Warsaw has been one of the Kremlin's most outspoken adversaries during the war.


Bulgaria has enjoyed warmer relations with Russia for a long time, but Prime Minister Kirill Petkov, who assumed office last year, has condemned the invasion. He was scheduled to meet Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Wednesday.


The cut-off occurs when the weather warms and the demand for gas-heated homes decreases. Poland asserts that it has adequate gas reserves, while Bulgaria seeks supplies from Greece and Turkey.


However, if the cut-off continues for several months or spreads to other countries, mayhem might ensue.


Germany, Russia's largest energy consumer, intends to phase out Russian oil imports within days, but weaning itself off Russian gas will be a much tougher issue.


Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that a Russian energy embargo or blockade would push Germany into recession, Europe's largest economy.


According to a Russian economy ministry study, Russia's GDP could contract by as much as 12.4% this year.

KARMA OF THE 'CRUEL'

Since the Russian invasion army was repulsed last month on the borders of Kyiv, Moscow has shifted its focus to eastern Ukraine, launching a fresh attack to entirely take two provinces known as the Donbas.


Authorities reported hearing explosions early Wednesday in three Russian districts that border Ukraine, and an ammunition storage in the Belgorod area caught fire.


Kyiv has not admitted responsibility for this or previous acts, but has framed them as retaliation. On social media, presidential advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak wrote, "Karma is a nasty thing."


According to an assistant to the mayor of Mariupol's destroyed port city, Russian soldiers have resumed their assault on the Azovstal steel complex, where fighters and some civilians have taken refuge.


Concerns have grown about the violence spreading to neighboring Moldova, where pro-Russian rebels have blamed Ukraine for reported attacks this week in their territory, which has been held by Russian soldiers since the 1990s.


Transdniestria's authorities reported that shots were fired across the border from Ukraine on Wednesday.


Ukraine has accused Russia of attempting to orchestrate 'false flag' assaults in the region, while Moldova's pro-Western government has accused separatists of inciting war.