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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Stop Relying on Russia, Ukraine Tells Europe Following Gas Shutdown

Aria Thomas

Apr 28, 2022 09:35

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Europe should wean itself off Russia's commerce after Moscow cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland for failing to pay in roubles, Ukraine said on Wednesday, as the cut revealed the continent's shortcomings and divides.


The decision, described as "blackmail" by European leaders, comes as Russia's economy wilts under sanctions and Western countries continue to deliver additional armaments to Kyiv despite Kremlin warnings to back off.


Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), Russia's monopoly on gas exports, has paused gas supply "due to a lack of rouble payments," as required in a directive issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin to mitigate the impact of sanctions.


"The sooner everyone in Europe accepts that they cannot rely on Russia for trade, the sooner stability in European markets can be guaranteed," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated late Wednesday.


While the European Commission's president described Gazprom's plan as "yet another attempt by Russia to use gas as a tool of blackmail," EU ambassadors pressed the executive for further clarity on whether transferring euros violated sanctions.


On May 2, France will host a conference of the EU's energy ministers to decide how to respond to Russia's action.


Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said Russia remained a trustworthy energy source and denied engaging in blackmail.


He declined to disclose how many countries had agreed to pay for gas in roubles, although other European clients reported normal gas deliveries.


Ukraine claimed on the battlefield that Russian troops had achieved successes in the east.


Russia reported a series of explosions and a fire at an armaments storage on its side of the border. Kyiv referred to the blasts as "karma."


Ukraine claimed that Russian forces used tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a pro-Ukrainian gathering in Kherson, Ukraine's first major city. The center of Kherson was struck late Wednesday by a succession of loud explosions produced by rockets, the Ria News agency said.


The invasion of Ukraine has turned towns and cities to rubble and driven almost 5 million people to go abroad in a conflict that has sparked fears of a wider battle in the West, something that has not been considered in decades.


Moscow refers to it as a "special operation" aimed at disarming Ukraine. Ukraine and its supporters have described the conflict as an unjustified act of aggression.

FEARS OF RECESSION

Given the EU's reliance on Russian energy, the European Commission has stated that EU gas importers may participate in Russia's payment plan if certain requirements are met.


Uniper, Germany's largest importer, stated that it could pay without violating any laws. Austria and Hungary, among others, have shown a willingness to follow this path.


Bulgaria and Poland, both former Soviet satellites that have since joined the EU and NATO, are the only two European countries whose Gazprom contracts are set to expire at the end of 2022, signaling the start of their quest for alternatives.


Warsaw has been one of the Kremlin's most outspoken adversaries during the war.


Bulgaria has enjoyed warmer relations with Russia for a long time, but Prime Minister Kirill Petkov, who assumed office last year, has condemned the invasion. He was scheduled to meet Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Wednesday.


The cut-off occurs when the weather warms and the demand for gas-heated homes decreases. Poland asserts that it has adequate gas reserves, while Bulgaria seeks supplies from Greece and Turkey.


However, if the cut-off continues for several months or spreads to other countries, mayhem might ensue.


Germany, Russia's largest energy consumer, intends to phase out Russian oil imports within days, but weaning itself off Russian gas will be a much tougher issue.


Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned that a Russian energy embargo or blockade would push Germany into recession, Europe's largest economy.


According to a Russian economy ministry study, Russia's GDP could contract by as much as 12.4% this year.

KARMA OF THE 'CRUEL'

Since the Russian invasion army was repulsed last month on the borders of Kyiv, Moscow has shifted its focus to eastern Ukraine, launching a fresh attack to entirely take two provinces known as the Donbas.


Authorities reported hearing explosions early Wednesday in three Russian districts that border Ukraine, and an ammunition storage in the Belgorod area caught fire.


Kyiv has not admitted responsibility for this or previous acts, but has framed them as retaliation. On social media, presidential advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak wrote, "Karma is a nasty thing."


According to an assistant to the mayor of Mariupol's destroyed port city, Russian soldiers have resumed their assault on the Azovstal steel complex, where fighters and some civilians have taken refuge.


Concerns have grown about the violence spreading to neighboring Moldova, where pro-Russian rebels have blamed Ukraine for reported attacks this week in their territory, which has been held by Russian soldiers since the 1990s.


Transdniestria's authorities reported that shots were fired across the border from Ukraine on Wednesday.


Ukraine has accused Russia of attempting to orchestrate 'false flag' assaults in the region, while Moldova's pro-Western government has accused separatists of inciting war.