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On June 16th, Tohru Sasaki, chief strategist at Fukuoka Financial Group and a former Bank of Japan official, stated that a minor surprise was the scale of Japanese government bond purchases. The market had expected the purchase scale to remain largely unchanged after April next year, but it was actually slightly reduced and will remain unchanged thereafter. Therefore, this differs slightly from market consensus. However, the focus is on how Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will articulate future monetary policy. Uchida needs to proceed cautiously at this press conference. It will be very difficult for him to express any major shifts in future policy. Therefore, I believe the market may interpret Uchidas press conference as a dovish signal. The Ministry of Finance may intervene on the day of the Bank of Japans interest rate hike due to the continued weakness of the yen. Looking ahead, I believe the health of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is crucial. If he needs to be replaced for health reasons, his successor will likely be a dovish governor.June 16 – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its key interest rate unchanged for the first time this year, given that the previous three rate hikes had begun to put pressure on the Australian economy. On Tuesday, all nine members of the committee unanimously voted to keep the cash rate at 4.35%, in line with expectations. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a press conference later, and investors will be watching to see if policymakers will enter a prolonged pause or continue their tightening stance. In its statement, the RBA said, “The cash rate target has been raised three times since the beginning of the year, and current financial conditions are tighter than before, with signs of an economic slowdown emerging as expected.” This pause in rate hikes marks a softening of the RBA’s aggressive tightening policy, which had previously made it stand out among major central banks. While policymakers continue to warn that inflation remains too high and that high energy costs related to the war with Iran pose upside risks, recent weaker data has provided the central bank with room to hold its position and assess the situation.June 16 – On the morning of June 16, President Xi Jinping held talks with Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing, who was on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Xi Jinping pointed out that President Min Aung Hlaing has long been a friend of China. Last year, we met twice and exchanged in-depth views on strategic and directional issues concerning China-Myanmar relations. I am willing to continue to strengthen guidance with you, carry forward the fraternal friendship, deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation, promote the building of a China-Myanmar community with a shared future to achieve more results, bring more benefits to the people of both countries, and make greater contributions to regional peace and development.Reserve Bank of Australia: Signs of economic slowdown are emerging as expected after the 2026 rate hike.Reserve Bank of Australia: The impact of high oil prices on goods and services is becoming apparent.

Stocks Will Sell Off on Inflation Data – Is a Temporary Bottom Ahead?

Alice Wang

Jul 14, 2022 14:56

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Following a 1.15 percent fall on Monday, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.92 percent on Tuesday. The general stock market reversed a recent advance from the neighborhood highs made last week. From the 3,900–3,950 level, the index once again bounced.


Despite the U.S. dollar's gain and the volatility of commodities last week, the S&P 500 almost fully recovered from its prior fall. But this week's early days saw sellers take the lead once again. Regarding inflation statistics, the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy, the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, and the impending quarter's earnings reporting season, there is still a lot of uncertainty and concern. And after a worse-than-expected CPI announcement this morning, the index is anticipated to start 1.4 percent down.

Conclusion

The Consumer Price Index announcement stated earlier caused investors' attitude to deteriorate, and as a result, the S&P 500 index is most likely to start 1.4 percent down this morning. Prior to Friday's publication of retail sales data and the next quarterly earnings announcements, the market might see an intraday bounce and more gyrations.