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On August 13th, Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Kaplan stated that the Federal Reserves decision not to raise interest rates in July was "absolutely" correct, and urged policymakers to remain open-minded until September, arguing that the factors influencing inflation are complex and that rigid forward guidance would be counterproductive. Kaplan stated, "If I see meaningful improvement, I might be willing to continue holding rates steady, but I want to make full use of every opportunity before September to make judgments, avoiding rigidity or preconceived notions." Kaplan believes current forces include: inflationary pressures from the development of artificial intelligence, tariffs, labor constraints, and soaring oil prices; meanwhile, AI applications are having the opposite effect, accelerating the downward trend in inflation. He suggested that Warsh should use his speech at this months Jackson Hole symposium to briefly explain the reasons for the Feds decision to hold rates steady in July, rather than giving a purely "philosophical" speech. Kaplan stated that his concerns about long-term US Treasury bonds outweigh his concerns about the federal funds rate itself. He stated that the global rise in long-term Treasury yields reflects a structural supply-demand imbalance driven by persistently large fiscal deficits, rather than Fed policy.An explosion occurred at a military factory near Rome, the Italian capital, on the 13th, according to Italian authorities. No casualties have been reported so far.The UK Maritime Trade Organization reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to harass and monitor merchant ships, although no attacks were confirmed in the latest reporting period.Sources say Ukraines proposal was conveyed to Russia through a third party, but no response has been received yet.Bank of England Chief Economist Peel: UK economic growth provides a reason to raise interest rates.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Pulled Back After Strong Jobs Demand

Florala Chen

Nov 02, 2022 16:51

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 E-mini contract initially rose during Tuesday's trading session to display symptoms of FOMO once again. Having said that, the market later handed up the gains when the number of job openings in the United States turned out to be 1 million more than expected. This demonstrates how difficult it will be to begin loosening monetary policy, and Wall Street had a little wake-up call during the day. It seems that we are prepared to go lower at this time, maybe endangering the 50-Day EMA. Additionally, we must bear in mind that Wednesday's Federal Reserve pronouncement will have a significant impact on what occurs next.


We are likely to drop much farther if we break down below the 3800 level. On the other side, if we turn around and break above the day's high for Tuesday, then makes a goal of 4,000 possible. Remember that Wall Street had been expecting the Federal Reserve to potentially tone down its hawkish tone, so if they do sound as aggressive as I anticipate, it's probable that we will have a little decline.


Even if there has been a great rebound over the last several weeks, we are still most definitely in a downturn. Although there has been speculation over the last two weeks that the Federal Reserve would let the Canadians and Australians tell them what to do, the economic situation does not seem to be good, and, to be very blunt, nothing has changed.

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