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August 18th - Foreign investors holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds declined in June, primarily due to reductions in holdings by Japan and China. According to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Monday, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by $72.1 billion month-on-month to $9.3 trillion in June. Foreign holdings have declined in three of the past four months since reaching a record high in February. During this period, U.S. Treasury bonds fell as investors worried about the massive fiscal deficit and above-target inflation. Japan, the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, saw the largest reduction in June, decreasing its holdings by approximately $26.4 billion to $1.12 trillion. The yen has been under continued pressure in recent months, prompting Japan to intervene to stabilize its exchange rate. The U.S. also participated in intervention at the end of July. Some market observers believe the underlying reason is concern that Japan might sell U.S. Treasury bonds to defend the yen, thereby pushing up U.S. borrowing costs. "Japans actions are clearly driven by the need for foreign exchange intervention," said Paresh Upadhi, a strategist at Vanguard Investments. He pointed out that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant not only intervened in July but also suggested that Japan might utilize the Federal Reserves tools to avoid directly selling its government bonds. It goes without saying that we will not see Japan selling U.S. Treasury bonds again.BHP Billiton: The cost environment has "significantly changed" due to the conflict in the Middle East.BHP Billitons revenue for the fiscal year was US$58.76 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year. Capital and exploration expenditures for the fiscal year were US$10.26 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year.BHP Billitons net profit for the fiscal year was US$9.83 billion, up 9% year-on-year. BHP Billitons underlying profit for the fiscal year was US$13.2 billion, up 30% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of US$12.66 billion.August 18th - A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 17th showed that US President Trumps approval rating has dropped to 33%, a new low during his second term. The poll indicated that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trumps performance in the White House, and approximately 80% expect the conflict between the US and Iran to "last a long time." The survey was conducted online nationwide, collecting feedback from 1,166 American adults.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Have Quiet Return

Florala Chen

Jan 18, 2023 16:26

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

As traders returned to work after the United States' Martin Luther King Jr. Day vacation, the S&P 500 E-mini contract fluctuated throughout trading on Tuesday, with regular hours and normal volume. It's remarkable that the markets did not soar higher, and of course, we must be concerned about the thought of the beginning of the earnings season. Banks are the subject of our present negotiations, and several of them have reported abjectly poor financial results.


Looking at this chart, it is important to note that we may reach the 4200 level if we break above the channel's downtrend line. The 50-Day EMA, which is slightly above the 3900 level, might be reached if we reverse course and break below the bottom of the hammer for the previous trading session.


To put it mildly, the markets will continue to seem quite loud and will fluctuate quite a bit depending on what we observe on results calls. In the end, I believe you should size your positions extremely carefully since there will probably be a lot of back-and-forth trading. You must be aware that the earnings season may be quite loud, and that the most recent "story" can often obscure the truth.


A significant amount of selling would begin if the price fell below the 50-Day EMA, however I don't anticipate this to happen quickly. Anything over the 4200 mark would indicate that a new bullish trend is likely to be starting in the market. I still lean toward the negative at this time, but the situation is definitely becoming fascinating.