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August 18th - Foreign investors holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds declined in June, primarily due to reductions in holdings by Japan and China. According to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on Monday, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by $72.1 billion month-on-month to $9.3 trillion in June. Foreign holdings have declined in three of the past four months since reaching a record high in February. During this period, U.S. Treasury bonds fell as investors worried about the massive fiscal deficit and above-target inflation. Japan, the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, saw the largest reduction in June, decreasing its holdings by approximately $26.4 billion to $1.12 trillion. The yen has been under continued pressure in recent months, prompting Japan to intervene to stabilize its exchange rate. The U.S. also participated in intervention at the end of July. Some market observers believe the underlying reason is concern that Japan might sell U.S. Treasury bonds to defend the yen, thereby pushing up U.S. borrowing costs. "Japans actions are clearly driven by the need for foreign exchange intervention," said Paresh Upadhi, a strategist at Vanguard Investments. He pointed out that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant not only intervened in July but also suggested that Japan might utilize the Federal Reserves tools to avoid directly selling its government bonds. It goes without saying that we will not see Japan selling U.S. Treasury bonds again.BHP Billiton: The cost environment has "significantly changed" due to the conflict in the Middle East.BHP Billitons revenue for the fiscal year was US$58.76 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year. Capital and exploration expenditures for the fiscal year were US$10.26 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year.BHP Billitons net profit for the fiscal year was US$9.83 billion, up 9% year-on-year. BHP Billitons underlying profit for the fiscal year was US$13.2 billion, up 30% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of US$12.66 billion.August 18th - A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 17th showed that US President Trumps approval rating has dropped to 33%, a new low during his second term. The poll indicated that 64% of Americans disapprove of Trumps performance in the White House, and approximately 80% expect the conflict between the US and Iran to "last a long time." The survey was conducted online nationwide, collecting feedback from 1,166 American adults.

Stock Markets Continue to Put Up a Fight

Cory Russell

Jul 18, 2022 15:12

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Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has declined considerably over the last week, but it's important to remember that the previous three candlesticks have all been hammers, which does indicate that a balance or perhaps a breakout to show signs of life is very approaching. Having said that, I believe the market will, more often than not, exhibit a scenario in which there will be a brief rebound and maybe a bid to test the 4200 level. If we could break through the 4200 level, which has served as a big area of resistance as well, the general trend would alter.


On the other side, this market is likely to crash very severely if we reverse course and break down below the 3640 level and, therefore, the 200 day EMA. Given everything being equal, I think this market is a touch oversold, so a little rebound makes some sense. The market will likely continue to be choppy and noisy, and you should be concerned about the fact that we are almost certainly heading into a recession, despite what some people on Wall Street would have you believe. Keep in mind that we are about to enter the earnings season, so you need to pay close attention to pre-market volatility.


In the end, I believe fading rallies will continue to be effective, but we must wait for those rallies to take place in order to get some opportunity and a better risk-to-reward ratio.

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