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On August 28th, Goldman Sachs stated that Persian Gulf oil exports have recovered to approximately two-thirds of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicated that driven by increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, total crude oil and petroleum product exports from the region have risen to 15-16 million barrels per day, still 7-8 million barrels per day lower than pre-conflict levels, but significantly higher than the March low of 5-6 million barrels per day. The volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz alone may have approached the 8-10 million barrels per day estimated by US officials. Goldman Sachs stated, "The increased number of professional carriers shutting down ship tracking signals and the increased ship-to-ship transshipment activities indicate that producers and carriers are adapting to the Middle East conflict." While large quantities of oil are being shipped out of the Persian Gulf, liquefied natural gas and refined product shipments remain low. Goldman Sachs stated, "Given the continued supply disruptions, we still believe that European gas prices and forward refined product prices have more upside potential than crude oil."August 28th - A Reuters poll shows that the vast majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive time next Wednesday, followed by another rate hike next quarter. The RBNZ implemented its first rate hike in over three years last month and hinted at further tightening of monetary policy to push inflation back to its target range of 1%-3%. Official data released subsequently showed that inflation rose to 4.1% last quarter, a two-and-a-half-year high. Economists expect inflation to remain within the target range this year, partly due to upward pressure on energy prices. The survey shows that about 90% of the 31 economists surveyed expect the RBNZ to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% next Wednesday. HSBCs chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham, said, "The main reason is that inflation is above target." Two-thirds of economists expect the RBNZ to raise rates by at least 25 basis points again next quarter, with a median forecast of 3.00% for the official cash rate at year-end.Nomura Securities lowered its target price for Bilibili (BILI.O) from $22.5 to $18.A Reuters poll shows that more than two-thirds of forecasters expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates at least once more after September, with the cash rate expected to reach 3.00% or higher by the end of the year.August 28th - Affected by Typhoon Saudel, Jiangxi and Hunan provinces experienced heavy to torrential rain, with some areas experiencing extremely heavy rain. According to the assessment of the Geological Disaster Technical Guidance Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources, the risk of geological disasters is relatively high in parts of western Jiangxi and central and southern Hunan. The Ministry of Natural Resources decided to activate a Level IV geological disaster prevention response for Jiangxi and Hunan at 10:00 AM on August 28th.

S&P Weekly Price Forecast – Stock Market Continues to Show Choppy Behavior

Alice Wang

Jan 09, 2023 16:22

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Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

Even though the S&P 500 experienced some slight losses during the trading week, it appears content to remain in the same consolidation range that we have been in for the past few weeks. This is especially true given that the Non-Farm Payroll report revealed that wage inflation is beginning to decline in the United States, which has led some investors to speculate that the Federal Reserve will change course. They are miles away from it, and nothing has changed. Rallies at this point continue to seem suspicious, particularly given that the 50-Week EMA is located directly at the downtrend line, close to the 4020 region.


We might clear the 3800 level and perhaps prepare to drop to the 200-Week EMA, which is exactly at the significant 3700 level, if the market were to reverse course and break down below the bottom of the previous two candlesticks. Even though there is still a lot of loud back-and-forth activity in this circumstance, I do think the market will ultimately make a greater move.


The quantity of "hopium" that appears to be present on Wall Street is quite amazing, while there are still several factors at play that continue to work against the strength of the stock market. At some point, the following week or two should start to heat up, and the next move may start to take shape.


Although I remain pessimistic, the fact that we are sandwiched between the 50-Week EMA and the 200-Week EMA suggests that some kind of squeeze is likely to occur sooner rather than later. In other words, before investing money, everyone at the market should notify me the way it intends to break.

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