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July 1st - The World Gold Council released its "2026 Global Gold Market Mid-Year Outlook" today. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold valuation framework indicates that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macroeconomy, with three main possible scenarios. At current price levels, gold prices are largely in line with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will all tighten policy; and US inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter, approaching 3.9%. If these conditions remain largely unchanged, gold prices may trade around $4,100/ounce this year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or interest rate expectations shift, gold is expected to resume its upward trend; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown could drive gold prices to break upwards. On the downside, a stronger dollar, larger-than-expected interest rate hikes, and a recovery in market risk appetite are the main obstacles to gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/ounce, it could trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it could trigger "buy the dip" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Raising interest rates would be a mistake.UK Maritime Trade Organization: A tanker reported that a small vessel approached it from its port aft side at a distance of 2 nautical miles. The crew is safe and the vessel is continuing its voyage.Ukrainian President Zelensky: I hope that during Irelands EU presidency, I can open up all areas of discussion in the negotiations for Ukraines accession to the EU.British Prime Minister Starmer: The £1 billion annual funding gap in defense spending has been covered by budget "spare space".

S&P 500, NASDAQ Pressured by Fed Rate Hike Fears Amid Hot US Labor Market

Cory Russell

Jan 06, 2023 14:38

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The main U.S. stock indexes are set to start Thursday's trading day down after a closely watched private sector employment data revealed further evidence of a robust labor market, igniting concerns that the Federal Reserve would continue raising interest rates for longer than anticipated.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 32872.70 at 14:42 GMT, down 397.07 points or -1.19%. The NASDAQ Composite is trading at 10309.03, down 149.73 or -1.43%, while the S&P 500 Index is at 3807.02, down 45.25 or -1.17%.


ADP claims that in December, private payroll growth increased by 235,000.


Private payroll growth in the United States exceeded expectations in December, showing that there is still a significant demand for workers despite rising interest rates.


According to the ADP National Employment report released on Thursday, private employment climbed by 235,000 jobs in the last month. Unrevised data for November showed 127,000 new jobs gained. Reuters questioned economists, who predicted a 150,000 increase in private employment.


US Weekly Jobless Claims Reach Three-Month Low; December Saw Fewer Layoffs

Layoffs decreased 43% in December while the number of Americans submitting new unemployment benefit claims plummeted to a three-month low last week, indicating a strong job market that may need more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.


The Labor Department said on Thursday that initial applications for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 204,000 for the week ending December 31, the lowest level since late September. 225,000 claims were predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters for the most recent week.