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March 16th - We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Tuesday, followed by another 25 basis point hike in May. We then expect the RBA to pause rate hikes to assess whether the increase in the cash rate is sufficient to curb inflation risks. We believe the risks to the 4.35% terminal interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. The Middle East conflict has now moved beyond a short-term geopolitical shock and entered a phase where oil supply shortages may be more prolonged. The most definite and immediate impact of the Middle East conflict on Australia is rising inflation. Demand will also be somewhat damaged by affecting disposable income, but the timing and extent of this impact are uncertain. Given that inflation is above target and the labor market is considered strained, inflation risks are likely more central to the Committee than risks to economic activity. Escalating inflation risks will exacerbate these concerns, thus increasing the urgency to curb inflation expectations.March 16th - According to the Financial Times, restaurants in India have stopped using frying as a cooking method due to the natural gas crisis. The war between the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted global energy supplies, and South Asia, heavily reliant on natural gas from Gulf states, is among the hardest-hit regions. Indian Prime Minister Modi told the Indian people "there is no need to panic," but reports of hoarding, theft, and price gouging are rampant in the worlds most populous country as people rush to buy increasingly scarce liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders (primarily used for cooking). Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif, in a national address, stated, "If this situation continues to worsen, these prices will certainly get out of control."The Philippine House of Representatives has authorized President Marcos to suspend the fuel tax.Sources say an airstrike on Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces positions northwest of Mosul has wounded three people.Indonesias Finance Minister: If oil prices remain high, Indonesia will cut budgets for some projects.

Stablecoin Tether hires BDO Italia for monthly proof-of-reserve reports

Florala Chen

Aug 19, 2022 15:19

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Because we are pressing into significant barrier, stock markets have been a little apprehensive throughout Thursday's trading session.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

One must now consider whether or not we are running out of momentum or whether we are merely anticipating a signal to go higher after the S&P 500 shown some hesitancy at the 4300 mark. I believe that in the long run, a temporary decline is probably advantageous for both buyers and sellers, thus I believe that it does make sense. The 4186 level, where the 200 Day EMA is located, would be a good target.

However, it's conceivable that we would move considerably higher if we were to break above the highs of the previous several days. It then becomes possible for a migration to occur to the 4500 level. Frankly, it's fascinating to see that not much has been accomplished since the FOMC Meeting Minutes were made public. The could be the strongest message from that show by itself.


The 4100 level would be a good place to start if we were to break down, which may increase selling pressure significantly. We must, of course, keep a tight eye on the bond market. We have a big struggle on our hands since many traders in the Eurodollar futures think the Federal Reserve will need to start easing monetary policy sooner rather than later. I believe that the majority of traders just don't know what to do with themselves right now. That shouldn't come as a great surprise given that the majority of the financial media rely on confusion to generate revenue, and given that the noise is at an all-time high right now. The US economy has many drawbacks, but that was also true 500 points ago.