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On April 3rd, Futures News reported that silver prices have been trending downwards and rebounding since March. As of April 2nd, the domestic spot price of #1 silver was 18,150 yuan/kg, a cumulative decrease of 25.7% compared to the beginning of March. The main driver was negative news, specifically the turmoil in the Middle East, which led the market to price in expectations of subsequent energy supply tightening, thus increasing concerns about inflation. The Federal Reserve shifted its stance from one rate cut this year to the possibility of a rate hike, putting pressure on silver. However, Powells subsequent statement suggesting maintaining interest rates and the release of some conciliatory signals between the US and Iran led to a correction in market expectations for rate cuts. Domestically, with the export tax rebate period for photovoltaic modules approaching, the downstream rush to produce and export has largely ended. Coupled with the weakness in new energy vehicles and price volatility weakening market investment demand, the fundamentals are under overall pressure. Going forward, continued attention needs to be paid to the direction of the Middle East situation and its impact on the Federal Reserves interest rate path. Silver volatility may increase, and it is recommended to invest cautiously based on ones own risk tolerance.April 3 - According to a CNN report on April 2, US intelligence assessments indicate that despite five weeks of US-Israeli military action against Iran, approximately half of Irans missile launchers remain intact, and it possesses thousands of suicide drones. The report, citing sources, states that the main reason Irans missile launchers have not been severely damaged is their ability to be moved underground. Furthermore, Irans use of mobile platforms for "hit-and-run" tactics makes tracking these launchers extremely difficult. Sources say that in addition to existing missile launchers, Iran still maintains a large stockpile of missiles. Moreover, the operational capability of Irans coastal cruise missiles is likely largely intact.On April 3rd, Xiaomi announced that due to the continued sharp rise in the prices of key components such as global memory chips, after careful evaluation, the company will adjust the suggested retail price of some of its products starting from 00:00 on April 11, 2026. Xiaomi President Lu Weibing stated on social media that the current round of memory price increases far exceeded expectations, with the price of the same version of memory soaring nearly four times compared to Q1 of last year. The 12+512GB version has increased by approximately 1500 yuan, and the 16+1TB version has seen an even more outrageous increase, which has significantly impacted REDMI, a brand that has always been known for its extremely cost-effective pricing. Therefore, we have had to make a slight increase or restore the original price for some models.On April 3rd, it was reported that the National Innovation Center for Optoelectronics, the National Key Laboratory of Optical Communication Technology and Networks, and Pengcheng Laboratory jointly developed a multifunctional programmable optoelectronic fusion gate array system (P-FPGA) – LightIN. This system consists of a programmable photonic chip, an electronic control module, and a test-compile-adjust (TCA) intelligent configuration framework, enabling multiple functions such as photonic computing acceleration, signal processing, network switching, and security encryption. The related findings were published in Nature sub-journal Light: Science & Applications 15:165.On April 3rd, Xiaomi announced that due to the continued sharp rise in the prices of key components such as global memory chips, and after careful evaluation, the company will adjust the suggested retail price of some of its products starting from 00:00 on April 11, 2026. This adjustment involves three models: the REDMI K90 Pro Max will see a price increase of 200 yuan; the Turbo 5 and Turbo 5 Max will have their Spring Festival special offers cancelled; and the 512GB version will continue to receive a 200 yuan subsidy.

Silver Price Prediction: XAG/USD falls below the 200-day moving average after US Retail Sales

Alina Haynes

Feb 16, 2023 14:48

截屏2022-08-04 下午5.12.51_1024x576.png 

 

Silver price dropped for the second consecutive day, leaving the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $21.93 in the rearview mirror, as the Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales increased. The statistics supported a resurgence of the US Dollar (USD), putting downward pressure on Silver.

 

At the time of writing, the XAG/USD is trading at $21.50, having reached a peak of $21.87.

 

The XAG/USD exchange rate continues to decline, driven down by the strength of the US dollar, which, supported by rising US Treasury bond yields, advances 0.64 percent to 103.93 on the US Dollar Index. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has increased by three and a half basis points to 3.772%, which is negative for the non-yielding metal.

 

After two consecutive months of decline, January retail sales in the United States increased by an astounding 3.0% month-over-month versus expectations of 1.8%. The majority of the increase in sales can be linked to a tight labor market, which continues to create robust pay growth, while rising fuel prices may have contributed to a rise in revenues at service stations.

 

Recent Industrial Production (IP) in the United States remained constant, as reported by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), but output was weaker than anticipated due to increasing borrowing rates in the manufacturing industry.

 

The US Federal Reserve may continue to tighten monetary conditions, with markets anticipating two additional 25-bps rate hikes, which would push the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to the range of 5.00% to 5.250%.

 

A spate of Fed members remarked on Tuesday that the Fed is not done raising interest rates and echoed Fed Chair Powell's statement that rates will remain "higher for longer."

 

Consequently, Silver prices will stay under pressure, as a robust US Dollar will continue to harm the white metal. Silver could experience a rise once the Federal Reserve halts its tightening cycle, as it is expected to do so until 2024. Nonetheless, a hawkish Fed would boost the US Dollar's short-term prospects, which would impact on Silver.

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