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On April 3, White House aide Peter Navarro said that US President Trump’s tariffs could increase revenue by three times the size of the World War II tax increase in 1942, and could become the largest tax increase in US history.On April 3, a research report by CLSA indicated that ChinaSoft International (00354.HK)s revenue fell 1% year-on-year to RMB 16.951 billion last year, and the first disclosed AI-related revenue was RMB 957 million, accounting for 5.6% of revenue. The companys price reduction strategy has led to a decline in gross profit margin, and the main reason for the lower-than-expected net profit is a one-time impact. The bank expects the companys fundamentals to improve this year, mainly because the number of employees increased in the second half of last year. The bank expects the companys net profit to reach RMB 748 million this year, up 45.8% year-on-year, and lowered the target price from HK$7 to HK$6.5, maintaining the rating of outperforming the market.On April 3, the Australian bond market has experienced a dovish turn since the White House announced its new tariff agenda. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that the market has priced in an 85% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May. Subsequent rate cuts are expected in August and November, with a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by November. He added that US tariffs have far exceeded expectations, increasing the likelihood of a trade war and recession in the United States. He also said that since goods from countries such as Vietnam are now effectively shut out of the United States, cheap goods are expected to flood other Asian markets.Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi declined to comment when asked about the possibility of retaliation against U.S. tariffs.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi: We believe that the recent US tariff measures may have a significant impact on the multilateral trading system, and we strongly call on the United States to exclude Japan from these measures.

S&P500 Forecast: Is 4300 the Next Stop on the Market’s Upward Climb ?

Steven Zhao

Feb 14, 2023 17:01



We said in a blog article ten days ago that the S&P500's (SPX) anticipated decline was probably over.


This was done on the assumption that the market will rise to the $4300–4500 range, which has been our major anticipation for months. We have used the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) in our study to influence our market prognosis, which we will go into more detail about in this post.


Yesterday, the S&P 500 touched the optimal third wave level: $4195 vs. 4199,... It should be on a modest fourth wave currently, hopefully reaching $4100+/-10, before a fifth wave aims for $4260+/-20. The index will then likely drop for many weeks before making a rebound to the optimal price of $4395+/-25. ”


Even though it fell short of our expectations, we were right since the index bottomed on Friday, February 10, at $4060, which is only 0.7% below the goal range we established ten days earlier.


The index is now in a rallying phase. In light of this, the green W-4 we predicted has probably reached its bottom, and the green W-5 to preferably $4260+/-10, maybe as high as $4295+/-10, should be under way. Look at Figure 1 below.

The $4300 is the main concern

According to the EWP, an impulse's third and fifth waves often reach the Fibonacci extensions of 161.8% and 200.00% of the length of the first wave, measured from the low of the second wave, respectively.


We concentrate on the green W-5 and the red W-iii in this instance. Red 161.80% extension is at $4295 and green 200% extension is at $4258. Therefore, we should anticipate W-5 of W-iii to target $4260-4295 as long as Friday, February 10, low at $4060 holds.

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