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July 2, Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva wrote in a report that oil futures may trade in a narrower range this week as OPEC+ is widely expected to agree to increase production by another 411,000 barrels per day in August. OPEC+ supply is under the control of investors; however, prices seem to have digested the increase in production and are unlikely to catch the market off guard again in the short term. However, a weaker dollar could prolong any upward momentum.July 2, Goldman Sachs said that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react much, because the general market expectations have shifted to this result. Goldman Sachs expects the August production increase to be the last, as the large influx of shale oil from non-OPEC countries affects the supply and demand balance, but the risk tends to be a further increase in OPEC+ quotas after August.Canada remains committed to removing all Trump tariffs in its trade deal with the United States, the country’s ambassador to Washington said.Goldman Sachs: If OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react much as the general market expectations have shifted to this outcome.July 2, Kenanga economists said in a report that Indonesias recent export performance is expected to remain resilient, partly due to early shipments ahead of possible U.S. tariffs and a lower base than last year. Exports have grown 7.3% so far this year, reflecting strong momentum driven by strong U.S. demand. They expect Indonesias export growth rate to rise to 6.1% in 2025 from 2.3% in 2024, despite continued uncertainty in global trade.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Continues to Consolidate Just Above Trend Line

Skylar Shaw

Feb 28, 2023 15:50

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, as we are sitting just below a couple of major moving averages in the form of the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA. They both attract a lot of attention, so it is worth paying attention to the fact that the market does not seem to be in a hurry to get above those moving averages, which of course could be a bit of a head. We are also right around the psychologically important 4000 level, so a lot of traders will be looking to go in both directions at this point. Adding even more volatility to the mix is the fact that we are in the midst of earnings season, and recently there has been a lot of games played with the “zero day to expiration” options market, meaning that people are placing extremely short-term options trades that are kicking the market around.


If we were to break down below the lows Friday, that would show a significant continuation to the downside, perhaps opening up the downside all the way to the 3900 level, possibly even the 3800 level after that. Keep in mind that interest rates continue to rise, therefore putting a little bit of an anchor on the stock market. However, if we do see interest rates are to fall again, and we can break above the moving averages, then it’s possible that we could see the S&P 500 try to reach towards the 4100 level.


That being said, the last couple of weeks have been shaky to say the least, and therefore we could see a continuation of this overall negativity. I think the only thing you can probably count on at this point in time is going to be an extreme amount of volatility, because of this, it’s very possible that we could see more choppiness, instead of less. Make sure you keep your position size reasonable because things could get ugly rather quickly.

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