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With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ will make monthly production decisions based on market conditions.

Hang Seng Index, ASX200, Nikkei 225: Markets Find Brief Relief

Jimmy Khan

Feb 28, 2023 15:37


Industry Snapshot

Tuesday's early trading period for the Hang Seng Index and the larger Asian markets was positive. This morning, the Asian markets followed the Dow and the NASDAQ Composite Index into the green.


Riskier assets received support from US economic data on Monday, as the crucial Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Aviation increased by 0.8% in January, correcting a 0.3% decline from December.


The recent decline in crude oil prices has given rise to expectations that US inflation will experience a brief hiccup in January. However, with the US jobless rate at 3.4% and high US inflation, the Fed's conservatives will have a strong influence in the upcoming sessions. Anxiety of making a mistake would prefer an over-tightening and a gentle landing over abandoning the fight against inflation, which would support a more aggressive direction for interest rates.


Growing global conflict between the US and China has dampened expectations for a strong first quarter for the Hang Seng Index based on the China reopening narrative. Russia-China relations over Ukraine continue to be of worry.


Mixed regional economic data this morning limited the gains due to persistent challenges in the global stock markets. Consumer purchasing pleased, continuing a pattern seen in Europe and the US, while industrial sector statistics showed warning.


The NASDAQ Composite Index increased by 0.63% on Monday, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 both saw increases of 0.22% and 0.31%, respectively. The US Futures provided assistance this morning. The NASDAQ mini increased by 41 points while the DJI mini gained 50 points.



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