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On April 15th, Futures News reported that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark contract down 0.4%, mainly reflecting weaker international crude oil prices and the record-breaking pace of US soybean planting for this time of year. US President Trump stated that negotiations with Iran might resume later this week. This led to a significant drop in international crude oil futures, with Brent crude futures falling 4.6%. The plunge in crude oil futures put pressure on the soybean and soybean product markets. The US Department of Agricultures weekly crop progress report released Monday showed that as of April 12th, soybean planting was 6% complete, 4 percentage points higher than the five-year average, setting a record for the fastest pace for this time of year. Analysts pointed out that the rapid progress of soybean planting has strengthened market expectations of ample new soybean supply, putting additional pressure on soybean prices. Furthermore, South America also brought bearish news. Brazils National Supply Company (Conab) released its latest forecast, raising its 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production estimate from 177.85 million tons last month to a record 179.15 million tons. Soybean exports were also revised upward by about 1 million tons to 115.4 million tons.1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.66% to 48,535.99 points, the S&P 500 rose 1.18% to 6,967.38 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.96% to 23,639.08 points, marking its tenth consecutive day of gains. Amazon and Nvidia led the gains, rising nearly 4%. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 2.83%, Facebook rose more than 4%, and Google rose more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 2.35%, iQiyi rose more than 11%, and JD.com rose nearly 8%. 2. European stock indices all closed higher. The German DAX rose 1.27% to 24,044.22 points, the French CAC40 rose 1.12% to 8,327.86 points, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.25% to 10,609.06 points. Although the US and Iran did not reach a final agreement, the ceasefire proposal significantly eased market concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced the risk of disruptions to European energy supplies. 3. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed down 7.08% at $92.07 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract fell 4.05% to $95.34 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 2.04% to $4,864.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.23% to $79.62 per ounce.Japans Reuters Tankan non-manufacturing business sentiment index for April was 31, down from 25 in the previous month.Japans Reuters Tankan Manufacturing Sentiment Index for April was 7, down from 18 in April.April 15th - Optimistic expectations of renewed US-Iran peace talks have depressed oil prices, causing the S&P 500 to rebound sharply and approach its all-time high. This is expected to boost Asian stock markets at the open. Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick stated, "The key is not whether the talks have made substantial progress, but whether we can reasonably expect progress. Emotions are often more powerful than reality." Strategist Michael Ball analyzed that the S&P 500s rise stems from the markets belief that a war with Iran will not cause a full-blown economic shock. With the ceasefire agreement maintained, Saudi Arabias east-west oil pipeline resuming operation, and Iran considering suspending shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to advance negotiations, every headline of diplomatic efforts has given traders a sense of reduced tail risk.

Price Prediction for Silver - Silver Prices Face Downward Pressure Due to a More Hawkish Federal Reserve

Daniel Rogers

May 19, 2022 11:23

Due to a stronger currency and more aggressive Fed monetary policies, silver prices are expected to decline. The dollar rises to levels not seen in two decades as investors put dollar-bearing wagers. As investors flocked into bonds in response to the sell-off in equities, benchmark rates lost ground.

 

The Dow Jones and Nasdaq had significant daily drops as inflation fears increased in response to earnings announcements. Today, the yield on ten-year bonds fell by 9 basis points. Oil prices decrease as US corporations expect to expand output, mitigating the impact of the Russian oil embargo on supply concerns.

 

In April, house starts decreased by 0.2% due to higher mortgage rates. The 30-year loan rate rose to 5.3% last week, up from 2.94 percent a year ago. Inflationary spirals and high material costs have weighed on the housing market.

 

Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, predicted that the Fed will implement two 50-basis-point rate hikes in June and July during FOMC meetings.

Technical Evaluation

Despite a risk-averse mindset, silver prices could not surpass $21.50. Prices stay above the critical $21 threshold. However, XAG/USD faces a gloomy outlook due to Fed rate hike predictions.

 

There is support near the $21.00 level. A breach of this level would reduce support to the low from May 16 of 20.84. Near the 10-day moving average near the 10-day moving average of 21.49, there is observed resistance.

 

Momentum on the short term may turn positive as the fast stochastic may generate a crossover buy signal.

 

The medium-term momentum turns bullish as the MACD histogram becomes less adversely skewed (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is moving in a positive direction, indicating an upward trend in price movement.

 

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