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On September 18th, TD Securities strategists wrote in a report that the slight decline in the British pound following the Bank of Englands decision to hold interest rates steady likely reflects the unchanged language of its forward guidance. The Bank of England reiterated that a "gradual and cautious" approach to future rate cuts remains appropriate, with subsequent decisions dependent on economic data. The strategists noted that this further reinforces the view that another Bank of England rate cut remains possible this year, with TD Securities predicting a November cut. They suggest that the British pound may decline against the euro ahead of the UKs Autumn Budget in November, but given that the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts on Wednesday, further downside for the British pound against the US dollar is unlikely.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukrainian troops are launching a counteroffensive near Dobropolya and Pokrovsk in the east.On September 18th, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stated that the Federal Reserves policy is leaning toward being "too accommodative," and emphasized that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy lies in inflation, not the job market. Summers stated, "If I were in Chairman Powells shoes, my biggest concern would certainly be inflation." Regarding the Feds interest rate cuts, Summers said, "I dont think theyre being forced to do so by political pressure, but I do think that at this moment, the (Fed) must be pulling out all the stops (to maintain an anti-inflation stance). And Im not sure theyve pulled out all the stops as Id hoped."On September 18th, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves stated that the government is exploring measures to reduce inflation and will announce them in the next budget in November. In a correspondence with Bank of England Governor Bailey, Reeves described current inflation as "excessively high," adding, "The Prime Minister and I are both clear that we must do everything in our power to control costs and reduce spending." Regulations require written communication between the Chancellor and the Bank of England Governor when inflation deviates by more than one percentage point from the 2% target. The Bank of Englands forecast indicates that inflation is currently at 3.8%, above the 2% target, and is expected to rise to 4% next month. On Thursday, the day of the Bank of Englands monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain interest rates at 4% to continue to curb price increases.The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Shipping Index was 26.1 in September, compared with 4.5 in the previous month.

Prediction for Silver Prices - Silver prices will rise when the dollar falls on bad employment reports

Alina Haynes

May 20, 2022 10:12

As poor employment data pointed to a possible slowdown of economic development, silver prices increased. Due to gold's attraction as a safe haven, its price rises when rates and the currency fall.

 

The dollar declines due to weaker-than-expected employment statistics. In the midst of a market sell-off, investors flocked to bonds, causing benchmark rates to decline. Today, the yield on ten-year bonds fell by 7 basis points.

 

Oil prices increase in anticipation of a European embargo on Russian oil. This circumstance has thwarted proposals to loosen limits in Shanghai, which would have boosted demand.

 

Unemployment claims unexpectedly reached their highest level since January last week. Initial claims increased by 21,000 from the previous week, reaching 218 000. In contrast, ongoing claims fell to 1.32 million, the lowest level since 1969.

 

Greater interest rates lower labor demand. The Fed's intentions to quickly raise rates to rein in inflation may loosen the labor market, leading to an increase in demand relative to job supply.

Technical Evaluation

The price of silver has reached a one-week high and is approaching the $22 mark. A fall in prices will find support at the $21 midpoint, which would benefit optimistic traders. A bigger breach below that level might alter the picture to negative.

 

Near the 10-day moving average of $21.5, there is support. Near the $22 level, we see resistance. The short-term momentum is bullish, since the fast stochastic signaled a buy crossing.

 

The medium-term momentum turns positive when the histogram and MACD both show positive values (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is moving in a positive direction, indicating an upward trend in price movement.

 

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