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May 6th - According to data released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday, wage growth in the Eurozone is expected to slow this year, despite rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. The ECBs wage tracker shows wages are projected to rise by 2.6% this year, following a 3% increase in 2025. This figure for 2026 remains unchanged from the March forecast. ECB officials have emphasized that the outcome of wage negotiations is a key indicator for determining whether rising energy prices will trigger a sustained rise in inflation above its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB will closely monitor the data and conduct in-depth analysis of the wage agreement and collective bargaining agreement to be negotiated soon. The ECB kept its key interest rate unchanged last week but hinted that it might raise rates at its June meeting if the upward momentum in inflation since the start of the conflict in late February continues. The tracker indicates that there are currently no clear signs that the wage agreement will exacerbate inflation this year.European Central Bank: Wage growth is expected to reach 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.1. UniCredit: +55,000; Sparta Capital Securities: +55,000; Standard Chartered Bank: +70,000; ING: +75,000; 2. Bank of America: +75,000; Sumitomo Mitsui: +98,000; Bank of Montreal: +120,000; Deutsche Bank: +120,000; 3. HSBC: +120,000; Mizuho Securities: +145,000; Pansen Macro: +150,000; Scotiabank: +150,000; 4. BNP Paribas: +155,000; Oxford Economics: +160,000; Goldman Sachs: +170,000; [Reuters forecast: +99,000]On May 6th, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the final Eurozone PMI data for April confirmed previous signs of a recession. The ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted the recovery momentum that was forming before the conflict, and the Eurozone economy slipped into a downturn in April. While the data so far only shows a slight 0.1% decline in quarterly GDP, there is no indication that the crisis will ease in the short term, meaning the economic downturn could deepen soon. So far, the service sector has been hit the hardest, with consumer-facing industries particularly strained by the double whammy of soaring energy prices and travel disruptions. However, while the manufacturing sector has shown resilience so far, this reflects stockpiling by businesses fearing further price increases and supply shortages. This not only means that manufacturing growth will be subdued in the coming months as the stockpiling effect subsides, but also, if these supply and price concerns materialize, it will have a ripple effect on service sector businesses that rely on inputs for manufactured goods, especially food, and of course, refined fuels.German Engineering Federation: Orders for German construction machinery increased by 27% year-on-year in March.

Prediction for Silver Prices - Silver prices will rise when the dollar falls on bad employment reports

Alina Haynes

May 20, 2022 10:12

As poor employment data pointed to a possible slowdown of economic development, silver prices increased. Due to gold's attraction as a safe haven, its price rises when rates and the currency fall.

 

The dollar declines due to weaker-than-expected employment statistics. In the midst of a market sell-off, investors flocked to bonds, causing benchmark rates to decline. Today, the yield on ten-year bonds fell by 7 basis points.

 

Oil prices increase in anticipation of a European embargo on Russian oil. This circumstance has thwarted proposals to loosen limits in Shanghai, which would have boosted demand.

 

Unemployment claims unexpectedly reached their highest level since January last week. Initial claims increased by 21,000 from the previous week, reaching 218 000. In contrast, ongoing claims fell to 1.32 million, the lowest level since 1969.

 

Greater interest rates lower labor demand. The Fed's intentions to quickly raise rates to rein in inflation may loosen the labor market, leading to an increase in demand relative to job supply.

Technical Evaluation

The price of silver has reached a one-week high and is approaching the $22 mark. A fall in prices will find support at the $21 midpoint, which would benefit optimistic traders. A bigger breach below that level might alter the picture to negative.

 

Near the 10-day moving average of $21.5, there is support. Near the $22 level, we see resistance. The short-term momentum is bullish, since the fast stochastic signaled a buy crossing.

 

The medium-term momentum turns positive when the histogram and MACD both show positive values (moving average convergence divergence). The MACD histogram is moving in a positive direction, indicating an upward trend in price movement.

 

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