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On November 24th, German Chancellor Merz stated on the 23rd that the core elements of the USs proposed "28-point" plan regarding fiscal arrangements were "unacceptable." Speaking after the G20 leaders summit, Merz said the US had no right to use Russian central bank assets frozen within the EU. Furthermore, the demand for an additional $100 billion in funding from Europe was also unacceptable to Germany. Merz stated that the EUs current plan to use frozen Russian assets within the EU to provide loans to Ukraine to support its further arms purchases was also unacceptable.BHP Billiton (BHP.N): The group is no longer considering a merger with Anglo American.November 24th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Anglo American has rejected BHP Billitons (BHP.N) latest acquisition offer. The sources stated that after evaluating the proposal, Anglo American determined it was not superior to its existing merger plan with Teck Resources Ltd. BHP Billiton attempted to acquire Anglo American last year for $49 billion, but was repeatedly rejected and ultimately withdrew from the acquisition. Since then, BHP Billiton has stated it will focus on its own business growth portfolio to avoid repeating the mistakes of overexpansion during the previous merger and acquisition boom.Market news: Anglo American has rejected the latest takeover offer from BHP Billiton (BHP.N).On November 24th, Alexei Pushkov, a member of the Constitutional Committee of the Federation Council of Russia, argued that the EUs plan to mediate the conflict in Ukraine is a carefully crafted scheme to perpetuate the conflict. Pushkov stated, "Europes peace plan is not a genuine peace plan, but a plan to continue the war. And it has been carefully considered and corrected." The supplementary plan on Ukraine proposed by the EU, released on Sunday, includes 28 points, including a suggestion that Ukraine could join NATO, a possibility unacceptable to Russia. The plan suggests that Europe proposes allowing Ukraine to join NATO if NATO member states reach a consensus. The European proposal does not specify a timeframe for holding elections in Ukraine. It also includes a statement that NATO will not deploy troops in Ukraine, though this is stated as "in peacetime." Furthermore, the European proposal does not include recognition that Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk are de facto "Russian territory."

On weaker China PMI, stimulus focus, and US NFP data, USD/CNH rose above 6.9100

Daniel Rogers

Sep 01, 2022 15:24

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While the USD/CNH halted its three-day rally on Wednesday, it has since recovered some of its lost ground during Thursday's Asian trading as risk aversion and disappointing activity statistics push the pair higher. The pair's purchasers, however, are treading carefully as they await the introduction of the Chinese government's stimulus plan.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months. In doing so, the private manufacturing index confirms the gloomy state of the world's largest industrial sector, just as the official NBS PMI does.

 

According to Reuters's citing of state-run media, the Chinese cabinet has announced that the country will unveil the specifics of a set of recently announced policy changes at the start of September. According to the report, China's cabinet also plans to instruct commercial banks to make available medium- and long-term loans for infrastructure development and modernization.

 

Their power is bolstered by factors like China's covid-led lockdowns and rising tensions with Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

The USD/CNH exchange rate also appears to be driven by central bankers' aggressiveness and strong US Treasury rates notwithstanding deteriorating data. Nonetheless, US 10-year Treasury rates have increased to a two-month high of around 3.21 percent, and 2-year bond coupons have increased to their highest levels since 2007 at around 3.51 percent. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

The US ADP Employment Change rose by 132K on Wednesday, below the 288K forecast and the 270K prior reading. However, year-over-year wage growth in August was 7.6 percent in the United States, which put Fed policymakers on edge. Following the release of the statistics, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester told Reuters on Tuesday that she did not anticipate a rate cut from the Fed in 2019. Further, Lory Logan, the recently installed president of the Dallas Fed, has joined the ranks of hawkish central bankers by declaring, "Restoring price stability is our primary aim."

 

High inflation numbers and hawkish pronouncements from European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers highlight the central bankers' typically hawkish posture not only in the United States, but also in the Eurozone and Japan.

 

Positive news about the Chinese stimulus and the expected increase in the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August from 52.0 to 52.8 on Friday should attract traders ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday (NFP).

 

At the time of writing, a USD/CNH decline seems unlikely until a support line near 6.8850 is broken. Even still, Monday's multi-month high of 6.9326 seems to have drawn buyers.