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On September 19th, French President Emmanuel Macron stated on September 18th that France will push the EU to take action to address energy issues. He also believes that the US and Iran are unlikely to reach an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz in the short term. Macron stated that the sharp rise in fuel prices in recent weeks has created difficult circumstances for French citizens and families. Fuel prices at French gas stations have reached historic highs, causing considerable hardship and exacerbating purchasing power issues. Natural gas prices and the overall energy situation are also worrying, and these circumstances are entirely due to the war and the international situation. Macron said that France hopes to take action at the EU level and will communicate with the President of the European Commission on this matter.September 19 - Local time early on the 19th, Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, was attacked by airstrikes, and the sound of missile interception could be heard in the sky.Saudi civil defense officials said the danger in the Khairji area has been averted.Saudi Arabias Civil Defense Ministry said the danger alert for the Saudi capital, Riyadh, has been lifted.On September 19th, Reuters reported that Anthropic is considering launching a new AI model to counter the momentum gained by OpenAI since the release of GPT-6Astra, ahead of its upcoming IPO and following its CEOs call for an industry-wide slowdown. OpenAIs GPT-6Astra, released this month, has garnered significant attention in the enterprise market, raising concerns among some investors. They told Reuters they are reassessing Anthropics position as a leading provider of enterprise-grade AI tools. One source said Anthropic is evaluating the security of its next-generation model as one consideration before releasing it. Sources familiar with the companys thinking said some discussions involve balancing investment in a new model release with improving the companys profitability, as rising interest rates have made investors more focused on the timing of expected profit realization. Two other sources indicated that Anthropic may postpone its IPO until after the US midterm elections in November, with the elections not expected to significantly impact the offering. The IPO has already been delayed, with Reuters previously reporting that the roadshow was expected to begin as early as mid-October.

AUD/USD falls to 0.68 on dismal Aussie/China statistics and risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Sep 01, 2022 15:16

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As bears cheer on weak Australian statistics and a risk-off mindset on Thursday, the AUD/USD drops to a new 1.5-month low near 0.6800. Yet, adverse concerns about China, its major customer, may also be to blame for the current weakness of the Aussie pair.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months.

 

In other news, Home Loans in Australia dropped by -7.0% in July, worse than the -3.0% drop forecast and the 3.3% drop seen in June. For the same time period, Investment Lending for Homes fell by -11.2%, compared to a drop of 6.3% in the previous month. It should be noted that contrary to projections of a 1.5% expansion, private capital expenditure in Australia shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2).

 

The risk premium on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a two-month high of about 3.21 percent, and the risk premium on 2-year bond coupons has risen to its highest level since at least 2007. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

Recent market sentiment has been pushed down by worries about another ship blocking the Suez Canal, skepticism about China's covid circumstances, poor data, and conflicts with the United States over Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

In light of the Fed's recent aggressive posture, despite conflicting data, AUD/USD bears are likely to hold control as China-related news is also unfavorable. Before Friday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, traders may find some diversion in today's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to be 52.8 from 52.0 before (NFP).

 

If the AUD/USD drops below May's low at 0.6830, the next major support is seen in early July near 0.6760. Alternately, a support-turned-resistance line from early August, near 0.6850, will join the 0.6830 barrier to probe the pair's corrective slide.

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