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U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Oil prices will fall if the war with Iran ends in five days.The SC crude oil futures contract plunged 10.00% intraday, currently trading at 721.80 yuan per barrel.On March 23, according to Axios, US President Trump told reporters that his special envoys had met with a senior Iranian leader and claimed that the two sides had reached an agreement on many issues. Iran denied having held such talks, claiming that Trumps move was merely aimed at stabilizing the energy market. An Israeli official told Axios that US envoys Witkov and Kushner had spoken with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. However, Trump did not reveal the identity of his Iranian counterpart, saying he did not want them to be killed, but he stated that the US and Iran were aligned on many key issues. Notably, Trump said, "I think the person were facing is the most respected person right now, but not the Supreme Leader, and we havent received a message from him yet." Trump indicated that the two sides would continue their talks by phone on Monday, followed by a possible face-to-face meeting. Israeli officials revealed that the mediators are attempting to convene a meeting in Islamabad—with Ghalibaf and other officials representing Tehran, and Witkov, Kushner, and possibly Vice President Vance representing the US—which could take place later this week. The official also stated that Israel was aware of the indirect communication between the US and Tehran, but was surprised by Trumps remarks on Monday. "We didnt know things were progressing so quickly."The Eurozones preliminary consumer confidence index for March was -16.3, compared to a forecast of -14.4 and a previous reading of -12.2.U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: There are several other measures that can be used to lower gasoline prices.

AUD/USD falls to 0.68 on dismal Aussie/China statistics and risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Sep 01, 2022 15:16

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As bears cheer on weak Australian statistics and a risk-off mindset on Thursday, the AUD/USD drops to a new 1.5-month low near 0.6800. Yet, adverse concerns about China, its major customer, may also be to blame for the current weakness of the Aussie pair.

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.5 from 50.2 predicted and 50.4 earlier, signaling the steepest decline in activity in three months.

 

In other news, Home Loans in Australia dropped by -7.0% in July, worse than the -3.0% drop forecast and the 3.3% drop seen in June. For the same time period, Investment Lending for Homes fell by -11.2%, compared to a drop of 6.3% in the previous month. It should be noted that contrary to projections of a 1.5% expansion, private capital expenditure in Australia shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter (Q2).

 

The risk premium on 10-year US Treasuries has risen to a two-month high of about 3.21 percent, and the risk premium on 2-year bond coupons has risen to its highest level since at least 2007. The S&P 500 Futures were trading at 3,930, down 0.36 percent intraday, their lowest level since late July as of publishing.

 

Recent market sentiment has been pushed down by worries about another ship blocking the Suez Canal, skepticism about China's covid circumstances, poor data, and conflicts with the United States over Taiwan. The president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-Wen, has recently expressed an interest in bolstering ties with the United States in the semiconductor industry.

 

In light of the Fed's recent aggressive posture, despite conflicting data, AUD/USD bears are likely to hold control as China-related news is also unfavorable. Before Friday's release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, traders may find some diversion in today's release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August, which is expected to be 52.8 from 52.0 before (NFP).

 

If the AUD/USD drops below May's low at 0.6830, the next major support is seen in early July near 0.6760. Alternately, a support-turned-resistance line from early August, near 0.6850, will join the 0.6830 barrier to probe the pair's corrective slide.

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