Oil prices are expected to rise steadily, bulls need to pay attention to this risk

Before winter in the northern hemisphere, the inventory of fuels such as natural gas gradually decreased, prompting people to switch to petroleum products such as diesel and kerosene. U.S. crude oil prices rose to their highest level since the end of 2014 and are expected to rise further. However, investors should pay attention to the impact of the expected slowdown in global economic growth on oil prices.

Natural gas inventories have reduced and prices have soared, and the market has turned to crude oil to push oil prices to new highs

Last week, Gazprom PJSC stated that it had raised its 2021 long-term natural gas contract price forecast with European countries by 30%. The company said its new price forecast for European countries (excluding the countries of the former Soviet Union) is $269.6 per 1,000 cubic meters.

Since mid-August, due to the intensification of the energy crisis, the benchmark US crude oil price has risen by nearly 30%. On the ICE European Futures Exchange, the December settlement price of Brent crude oil rose 1.6% to $83.71 per barrel. The spot premium of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose from 29 cents a week ago to 71 cents a barrel, and the recent price is higher than the forward price.

Saudi Arabia’s National Petroleum Corporation estimates that the shortage of natural gas has increased crude oil demand by about 500,000 barrels per day, while Goldman Sachs expects that oil consumption will rise further. Due to the global energy crisis, the price of US crude oil soared to US$80 per barrel, while OPEC+ only resumed production at a moderate rate.

Limited supply power will further promote oil prices, and pay attention to the slowdown in economic growth

OPEC+ decided last week to stick to its plan to restore only 400,000 barrels a day in November, which added to the momentum for rising oil prices because many analysts had expected the organization to increase production. After the U.S. Department of Energy stated that it currently has no plans to exploit U.S. oil reserves, this concern further intensified.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said: “OPEC+ decided not to increase production, which may lead to further tightening of the global oil market in the fourth quarter. As demand continues to grow, there is still good buying in the market.”

However, signs of a slowdown in global economic growth may ease the pressure on crude oil demand. Goldman Sachs lowered its expectations for economic expansion in the United States this year and next, blaming it on the lagging recovery of consumer spending. The bank said in a report that it currently expects a growth rate of 4% in 2022, which is lower than the previous estimate of 4.4%. The energy crisis in major Asian countries may also lead to a slowdown in the Asian economy.

As winter approaches, the global energy crisis has not yet been effectively resolved, and it is gradually spreading to more countries. On Monday (October 11), US crude oil once rose to $81.10 per barrel, a record high in nearly seven years.



(U.S. crude oil futures daily chart)

GMT+8 At 15:23 on October 11, the US crude oil futures price was quoted at US$80.92/barrel.