International gold prices are under pressure, FED officials believe that the epidemic will lead to another economic recession

On Monday (October 11), international gold prices were under pressure, and the market worried that despite the weak September US employment data released last week, the Fed would still begin to reduce stimulus measures this year. Federal Reserve officials believe that the US job market continues to be affected by the new crown epidemic, but it will not cause an economic recession.

At GMT+8 16:07, spot gold fell 0.05% to US$1756.28 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.07% to US$1756.2 per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 94.128.


IG Market analyst Kyle Rodda said: "Employment data will not prevent the Fed from reducing the size of debt purchases... Labor shortages are boosting wage pressures, which may further increase inflation, which means they will eventually have to intervene."

Data released last week showed that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 194,000 in September, far below the 500,000 increase predicted by economists. But the unemployment rate fell to an 18-month low of 4.8%, and the hourly wage rate increased by 0.3 percentage points.

Despite the slowdown in employment growth last month, the Fed may begin to reduce its support to the economy next month. Rodda added: "The price of gold is having trouble deciding how to go next. My personal expectation is down, but the price of gold is currently stuck in a range."

OCBC economist Howie Lee said in a report: “Faced with the energy crisis and poor non-agricultural employment data in September, gold is still operating below the $1,800 mark, and the bulls have little confidence.” He also said that gold may be. It will fall to $1,500 by the end of 2022.

Goldman Sachs lowered its economic growth forecasts for the United States in 2021 and 2022 to 5.6% and 4%, respectively, on the grounds that financial support is expected to decrease by the end of next year, and the recovery of consumer spending is slower than previously expected.

According to a research report released by the company's chief economist Jan Hatzius and others on Sunday (October 10), the company previously expected the United States' gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.7% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.

San Francisco Fed President Daly said on Sunday that the U.S. job market will continue to feel the impact of the new crown epidemic and that the Delta mutant strain will bring headwinds to the economy, but she does not think it will lead to a recession, saying that the economy is "stalling." It's too early.

As U.S. companies begin to announce third-quarter financial reports in the coming week, investors are ready for another strong increase in U.S. corporate profits. However, as companies continue to emerge from the new crown epidemic, new problems such as supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures are also emerging, occupying the focus of Wall Street's attention.