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Susquehanna International: Raised the target price for Micron Technology (MU.O) to $200, from $160 previously.Gold options data show that before the Feds decision, the Put/Call ratio continued to rise but was still below 1, indicating that bullish expectations still prevailed, but short- and medium-term precautions against pullbacks increased; the transaction ratio returned to around 0.5, the short-term short-selling momentum weakened, and the market was more inclined to oscillate or slowly rise. The high probability range rose from 15% to nearly 19%, and the slope became steeper, especially above 3680-3700 (spot price of about 3673-3693), indicating that "high prices mean strong waves", and once it breaks through, it is easy to trigger a rapid saw-saw and a false breakthrough. Strategically, pay attention to the gains and losses of 3680-3700: if the position ratio is greater than 1 and the implied volatility continues to rise and approaches 20%, tend to reduce positions at highs and defend retreat; if the transaction ratio continues to weaken toOn September 17th, ahead of the Federal Reserves interest rate decision (widely expected to be a 25 basis point rate cut), long-term U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield approaching 4%. Short-term Treasury yields were largely unchanged, as the market has already priced in a rate cut. However, if the decision includes any comments on future interest rate trends, yields could fluctuate. "Bond investors remain cautious, and we expect yields to react," said Frank Walbaum of Naga in a report. The market analyst noted that weakening economic expectations or policy guidance for further rate cuts could lead to further declines in Treasury yields and the US dollar; however, a more cautious signal could provide temporary relief.Novo Nordisk (NVO.N): Trials of semaglutide for Alzheimers disease are "like a lottery."Kremlin: (Regarding the EUs plan to accelerate the phase-out of Russian energy) Russia defends its own interests and will not be affected by sanctions.

Oil Rises As Bulls Look Beyond China's Weakness and US Data

Skylar Williams

Jan 18, 2023 11:23

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Crude oil futures performed inconsistently on Tuesday due to a barrage of bad data as markets reopened after a U.S. holiday; nevertheless, a frenzied late push by oil bulls resulted in a solidly higher ending.


The most actively traded contract for New York West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in February closed at $80.18 a barrel, an increase of 32 cents, or 0.4%. Before continuing its upward trajectory, the contract fluctuated between $81.23 and $78.53 intraday. In recent weeks, this was one of the more tumultuous trading sessions for oil. Meanwhile, WTI for March closed up 34 cents, or 0.4%, at $80.45 a barrel.


Brent crude for delivery in March traded in London increased $1.46, or 1.7%, to $85.92 after ranging between $86.75 and $85.


Last week, oil bulls added more than 8% to both WTI and Brent to counteract the fall of the previous week.


As the markets reopened for the week on Tuesday following the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday, it got more challenging for long crude investors to retain an optimistic view as a barrage of mixed economic data from the world's largest oil importer, China, arrived.


Beijing released dismal data for its full-year GDP, December retail sales, and industrial output on Monday.


On Tuesday, the New York Federal Reserve released an extremely poor NY Fed Manufacturing report, with a reading of -32.9%, compared to a prediction of -8.6% and a previous reading of -11.20.


In the next few days, it is expected that U.S. retail sales would tumble by 0.8% in December, compared to November's 0.6% decline, which was already the largest drop in 11 months.


Typically, weak GDP, employment, and retail sales numbers have a negative impact on the price of oil, as they are structurally vital data that drive more energy usage when they are good.


While this week's China data are certainly awful, oil bulls are putting a positive spin on this week's dismal U.S. data by linking them to the potential that the Federal Reserve may impose the smallest rate hike in eight months if the numbers are weaker than anticipated.


Nearly 92% of money market participants think that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the conclusion of its February 1 policy meeting. Prior to that, the central bank raised interest rates by fifty basis points in December, following four increases of seventy-five basis points between June and November.


US consumer prices declined in December for the first time in over two and a half years, adding to optimism that inflation is on a lengthy downward trend that could allow the Fed to delay rate hikes.


Ed Moya, an analyst at the online trading platform OANDA, said, "Crude prices continue to surge on confidence for China's reopening." However, the U.S. industrial sector is rapidly deteriorating, which might undermine the current oil rise.


Moya added, "The China reopening optimism-induced oil increase may have a little more room to run, but it should halt quickly." Energy traders are likely within a few bucks of significant technical resistance.


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