Oil Prices Rise 1% on Hopes For China Demand And Supply Worries

Oil prices gained over 1% on Monday, supported by confidence over Chinese demand, sustained output limits by major producers and Russia's promises to rein in supply.

Brent crude closed up $1.07, or 1.3%, at $84.07 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for March, which expires on Tuesday, last increased 85 cents, or 1.1%, at $77.19.

Monday volumes were subdued due to the Presidents' Day market vacation in the United States.

When the United States reported larger crude and gasoline stocks, both crude benchmarks finished $2 lower on Friday, a fall of around 4% for the week.

Experts anticipate that China's oil imports will reach a record high in 2023 due to rising demand for transportation fuel and the introduction of new refineries.

China is the world's largest importer and is projected to recover rapidly from the COVID transition, so it makes sense that the country's optimism has contributed to crude's recent advances, according to Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA in London.

China and India have become big customers of Russian crude amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and more recently, embargoes and price controls due to the Ukraine crisis.

In India, the third-largest oil importer in the world, crude imports reached a six-month high in January, according to government data.

According to five sources familiar with the situation, the Chinese commerce ministry has met with independent oil refiners to discuss their dealings with Russia, imports that have saved Chinese buyers billions of dollars.

"The government wants to know how much independent refiners may potentially purchase and their genuine demand for such imports," said a source familiar with the discussions.

Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), corresponding to around 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price limitations on Russian oil and oil products.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed in October to reduce oil output objectives by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2023. Russia is a member of the OPEC+ producing group.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts said in a 19-Feb-2019 note that future oil supply shortfalls will likely push prices toward $100 per barrel by the end of the year.

Prices will increase "when the market returns to deficit as a result of underinvestment, shale restrictions, and OPEC discipline," they concluded.