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With a September Federal Reserve rate cut all but certain, options traders are widely betting on a stable stock market ahead of Thursdays CPI data. However, this bet could be risky if the data shows rising inflation. The markets rationale for a rate cut is straightforward: US job growth is stagnant and the economy needs stimulus. Fridays weak jobs data reinforced this expectation, prompting investors to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week. The markets reaction has been muted: US stocks fell slightly on Friday, and the fear gauge edged up slightly, but remains well below the critical 20 level, where it has mostly remained since June. Looking ahead, options traders are betting on a roughly 0.7% two-way move in the S&P 500 following Thursdays CPI release, below the 1% average realized move over the past year. However, this trade ignores a key risk: what if inflation figures significantly exceed expectations? "Its a very delicate balance right now," said Eric Teal, chief investment officer of Comerica Wealth Management. "Any data thats very positive or very negative could change the market outlook."On September 7, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeffrey Bessant stated that the United States and Europe are discussing a new round of sanctions and secondary tariffs against Russia, hoping that the "collapse" of the Russian economy will prompt Putin to engage in peace talks with Ukraine. "We are ready to increase pressure on Russia, but we need the cooperation of our European partners," Bessant said. He also stated that President Trump and Vice President Cyril Vance spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Friday, and that von der Leyen subsequently discussed sanctions with Bessant.Israel Airports Authority: The first flight from Ramon Airport to Tel Aviv will take off soon.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+s production increase plan is beneficial to the Russian economy.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: OPEC+ will make monthly production decisions based on market conditions.

Gold Prices Are at A 6-week Low as The FOMC Minutes Approach

Aria Thomas

Feb 22, 2023 11:57

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Gold prices stayed just above a six-week low on Wednesday, as markets remained cautious ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's February meeting and stronger-than-anticipated U.S. economic data bolstered the dollar.


In the wake of stronger-than-anticipated January inflation figures, bullion prices traded within a narrow band throughout the week. Along with indicators of resilience in the U.S. economy, they provide the Fed with sufficient space to continue rising interest rates.


At 19:13 E.T., spot gold was unchanged at $1,835.83 per ounce, while gold futures increased 0.1% to $1,845.70 per ounce (00:13 GMT). It is widely anticipated that the Fed's aggressive tone would be reaffirmed in the minutes due later in the day.


This week, the Fed's favored inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, will be released on Thursday. It is anticipated that the index stayed quite high in January.


Increasing interest rates are unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as gold and other precious metals because they boost the dollar and Treasury yields and the opportunity cost of owning gold.


The U.S. PMIs for February were also better than anticipated, according to statistics released on Tuesday. Any evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy offers the Fed greater room to continue raising interest rates, as the bank has said it would do in the near future.


But, fears about a potential U.S. economic downturn continued, especially in light of Tuesday's statistics showing a weakening housing market.


Other precious metals maintained a narrow trading range on Wednesday. Futures for platinum increased 0.1% to $945.95 per ounce, while futures for silver increased marginally to $21.900 per ounce.


Copper futures rose substantially on Tuesday as a result of the U.S. PMIs that were stronger than anticipated.


On Wednesday, high-grade copper futures stayed near a three-week high of $4.2170 per pound, following a 0.8% increase in the previous session.


The red metal was also boosted by confidence over China's economic rebound, particularly after the country maintained record-low interest rates this week.

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