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Real-time News
On August 26, according to Axios, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told officials from several allied countries that the US is not currently expected to launch a new military strike against Iran. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administrations current policy is to "temporarily avoid military action against Iran," instead increasing economic pressure through a US naval blockade and a new round of Treasury sanctions, and pushing as much oil as possible through the Strait of Hormuz into the global energy market. US officials stated that clearing most of the mines from the Strait of Hormuz and the recent increase in oil tankers passing through the southern shipping lanes have "significantly weakened Irans influence in the global energy market." One US official stated, "Iran has lost control of the strait, and now the US controls it." The US believes that the naval blockade is cutting off a vital source of revenue for Iran, and almost no oil tankers have been seen near Kharg Island, Irans main oil export port, in the past two weeks. Rubio stated that the US currently has no plans to resume large-scale military action, but the US retains the option to strike if Iran launches a preemptive attack. Another US official stated that this policy is expected to continue at least until after the midterm elections, at which point new military action may once again become an option.On August 26th, according to South Koreas *Chosun Ilbo*, South Korean DRAM export prices continue to soar, with AI-driven HBM production squeezing the supply of conventional memory. Data shows that from August 1st to 20th, the export price of South Korean DRAM reached $92,183 per kilogram, a 401% year-on-year increase and approximately 12.5 times higher than the low point in January 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts that the DRAM supply gap will widen from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year, and believes that "HBM required for AI servers and high-capacity server DRAM are absorbing limited production capacity, leading to a further tightening of conventional DRAM supply." TrendForce predicts that by the end of next year, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will account for 30% of total DRAM wafer input for HBM production, but HBM will only account for about 13% of actual DRAM bit supply. Memory manufacturers warn that the AI-driven DRAM and NAND supply shortage may continue beyond 2027. SK Hynix stated that from a supply perspective, 2027 could become "the most severe shortage year in the history of the memory industry." Goldman Sachs predicts that the supply shortage may continue until 2028.Conflict Situation: 1. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced its dissolution. 2. Russian media, citing sources, reported that the US and Iran have reached an agreement on the terms of a ceasefire, which includes freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated: "We have our own ways of dealing with any US proposal, including confrontation, escalation, and sanctions." Strait of Hormuz: 1. Only one commodity vessel passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, the lowest number since May 7. 2. Trump issued a stern warning to Iran: mine-laying ships will be destroyed, and the Space Force is closely monitoring the strait and nuclear facilities. 3. White House officials stated: There are no current negotiations between the US and Iran; the Strait of Hormuz remains open. 4. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated: No warships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 5. US President Trump stated: "I have been notified by the US Navy that all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been removed and/or detonated." 6. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Sources close to the negotiators said that Irans conditions included the restoration of the memorandum of understanding regarding Hormuz. 7. Iran and Oman issued a joint statement: proposing to establish a temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz and agreeing to implement a joint mine-clearing project in the strait. 8. Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will not open immediately, and Oman agreed to close the southern shipping lane of Hormuz, agreeing to finalize a new permanent shipping lane with Oman within 60 days. 9. According to Axios: US officials stated that over 500 ships have passed through the southern shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz in the past 30 days, with only about 2% of them being attacked by Iranian drones or missiles. Peace Talks 1. The Pakistani Army Chief of Staff held talks with Iran, focusing on preventing escalation of the conflict and reopening the strait. 2. Pakistani Interior Minister: Negotiations with the Iranian leadership have made significant progress. 3. US media: The US State Department is preparing to allow diplomats to return to embassies in the Middle East, indicating that Washington expects the conflict with Iran will not escalate again. 4. Saudi media: The US proposed lifting the blockade and sanctions against Iran in exchange for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi: In talks with Pakistan and Oman, he emphasized regional solutions. Other matters: 1. The US offers bounties for senior Iranian armed forces officials. 2. According to IRNA: The head of the National Oil Company stated that Iranian oil production is "in a favorable position." 3. Rezaei, Secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council: The US will have no future in West Asia. 4. Advisor to the UAE President: Irans attacks on Gulf states were a "serious miscalculation." 5. Pakistani Foreign Minister: Pakistan welcomes the US decision to lift all sanctions on Syria. 6. According to Iranian media Fars News: Iran has detected secret contacts between British MI6 spies and senior Israeli officials. 7. According to Al Jazeera: Israel expelled the Dutch representative of its Gaza International Support Center, citing "anti-Israel actions." 8. British Chancellor of the Exchequer: (Regarding Iranian sanctions) called on Iran to cease its destructive activities in the region, including the Strait of Hormuz. 9. US Treasury Secretary Bessant: The Iranian leadership has acknowledged that economic pressure is working, and the Trump administration will continue to cut off the economic lifelines supporting the Iranian regime until Tehran is isolated. 10. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi: If the United States continues its actions, Iran will demonstrate new capabilities. The Strait of Hormuz is not our only tool for confronting the United States. The United States should not assume that it alone can inflict economic damage.August 26th - According to Spanish government sources, the Spanish government plans to introduce stricter regulations on water, energy, and cybersecurity due to the surge in data center projects within the country. These new requirements have been incorporated into a draft decree, which will be open for public comment this week. Thanks to abundant renewable energy resources and vast tracts of open land, Spain has become one of Europes hottest hubs, attracting billions of euros worth of AI infrastructure-related projects. Sources indicate that the large number of projects allows Spain to select the most efficient and sustainable facilities in terms of sustainability and cybersecurity, which is the target of the upcoming regulations. According to the draft decree, data center operators must be established within the EU, and the data and metadata they process must remain within the EU. Mechanisms must be established to control access from third countries; stricter regulations will be implemented for data centers handling public data or data involving national security.Federal Reserve Bank of Barkin: If debt continues to increase, investors will eventually stop buying (US Treasuries) at some point.
