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On January 7th, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly in the morning, while the ChiNext Index rose and then fell back. By midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.29%, approaching 4100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index was up 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index was up 0.41%. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 1.84 trillion yuan in the morning session, an increase of 53.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Across the board, over 2500 stocks rose. The memory chip sector saw a major surge, with multiple stocks, including Nanda Optoelectronics and Hengkun New Materials, hitting their daily limit. The semiconductor sector strengthened, with Xinyuan Microelectronics and Hengkun New Materials hitting their 20% daily limit. Rare earth permanent magnet concepts were active, with China Rare Earth, Tongcheng New Materials, and GEM hitting their daily limit. In addition, minor metals, coal, energy metals, tourism and hotels, insurance, and lithography machine concepts were among the top gainers; while mining, shipbuilding, aerospace, beauty and personal care, petroleum, titanium dioxide, and digital currency concepts were among the top losers.On January 7th, DBS issued a research report raising its target price for China Taiping (00966.HK) from HK$23 to HK$25, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The report noted that 2025 is a transitional year for China Taiping. Currently, over 90% of the companys new business is insurance policies, and its investment strategy has shifted from high-yield to a barbell strategy. With the adjustment largely completed by 2025, management is optimistic about growth in fiscal year 2026. Regarding dividends, the company is focusing on dividend growth to enhance its core solvency.On January 7th, UOB Kay Hian issued a report raising its target price for Baidu (09888.HK) by 9.9%, from HK$151 to HK$166, while also raising its target price for its US-listed shares and maintaining a "Buy" rating. The bank is optimistic about Baidus proposed spin-off of Kunlun Core for a Hong Kong main board listing, believing it would help unlock Baidus financial value and enhance its AI ecosystem. Baidu announced earlier this month that it would spin off Kunlun Core, which, after listing, would remain a consolidated subsidiary of Baidu, with Baidu retaining a 59% stake. Based on these factors, the bank maintained its revenue forecasts for Baidu in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026, but lowered its adjusted net profit margin forecasts by 3% and 1%, respectively, projecting adjusted net profits of RMB 4.1 billion and RMB 19.1 billion.Futures News, January 7th: Post-holiday, the residual fuel oil market saw limited fluctuations. As of January 6th, the price of low-sulfur residual fuel oil in Shandong was 3910 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday. The price of medium-sulfur residual fuel oil was 3600 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.98% from before the holiday. Supply tightened in some areas, while downstream procurement was mainly based on immediate needs, limiting the extent of the price increase. Zhuochuang Information predicts that against the backdrop of weak fundamentals, crude oil prices will continue their downward trend, with weakening support from news. Downstream demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and residual fuel oil prices are expected to remain weak and stable, with the risk of further decline remaining.According to Futures News on January 7th, for the week ending January 3rd, Japanese commercial crude oil inventories increased by 586,212 kiloliters from the previous week to 10,353,413 kiloliters. Japanese gasoline inventories decreased by 17,333 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,695,758 kiloliters. Japanese kerosene inventories increased by 171,775 kiloliters from the previous week to 2,227,363 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 90.2%, unchanged from the previous week.

Oil Prices Are Low As Markets Assess Iran Tensions And China's Reopening

Haiden Holmes

Jan 30, 2023 11:30

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Oil prices remained in a tight range on Monday due to uncertainty around a drone strike on an Iranian plant and a Russia-led supply glut, despite optimism on a demand revival in China.


A U.S. official linked an Israeli drone strike on an Iranian defense site over the weekend, which might lead to an increase of political tensions in the Middle East and a disruption of global crude supply.


After the Lunar New Year vacation, Chinese markets resumed with a bang, with high expectations that the country's economic revival will be a main driver of oil demand this year. According to reports released over the weekend, travel in the country rebounded significantly during the weeklong holiday, and the government pledged to assist local economic growth.


By 21:33 ET, Brent oil prices increased 0.3% to $86.65 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 0.3% to $79.94 per barrel (02:33 GMT). However, both contracts suffered their first weekly loss in three weeks as data indicated a rise in January crude exports from Russia's Baltic ports.


Oil prices are expected to end the month of January roughly unchanged, as traders weigh a potential resurgence in Chinese demand against fears of a worldwide recession in 2019.


While a Chinese rebound is anticipated to finally help crude demand this year, the country is still battling its largest COVID-19 outbreak to date, which has created doubt regarding the timing of any recovery.


The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) are scheduled to meet on February 1 to determine the cartel's monthly output goals.


In spite of considerable uncertainty regarding the near-term course of oil demand, it is anticipated that the company will essentially sustain current production levels.


Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have fluctuated wildly, with fears of a global recession also playing a role. Despite the fact that the U.S. economy fared better than anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2022, investors are concerned that this momentum may wane as the consequences of tighter monetary policy and relatively high inflation persist.


The markets await this week's Federal Reserve meeting for additional guidance on the world's largest economy. This week also brings key economic statistics from China and the Eurozone.

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