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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Oil Increases 1.5% And Achieves Another Weekly Increase Due to Supply Worries

Aria Thomas

May 07, 2022 09:32

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Oil prices surged over 1.5 percent on Friday, registering a second consecutive weekly increase, as expected European Union sanctions on Russian oil increased the likelihood of a tighter supply and traders shrugged off concerns regarding global economic growth.


Brent futures increased by $1.49, or 1.3%, to $112.39 per barrel. The price per barrel of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.51, or 1.4%, to $109.77.


Phil Flynn, an analyst with Price Futures Group, stated, "In the short term, the fundamentals for oil remain optimistic, and the only factor holding us back is the worry of a future economic slowdown."


WTI rose around 5 percent for the week, while Brent rose nearly 4 percent, after the EU imposed an embargo on Russian oil as part of its toughest-to-date package of sanctions in response to the situation in Ukraine.


Three EU sources told Reuters that the EU is modifying its sanctions strategy in an effort to win over recalcitrant governments and gain the necessary unanimity from the 27 member states. The initial proposal called for a stop to EU crude and oil product imports from Russia by the end of this year.


"The impending EU oil embargo against Russia has the makings of a severe supply crunch. In any event, OPEC+ is unwilling to assist, despite the fact that rising oil costs are causing inflation to rise to dangerous levels "Stephen Brennock, a PVM analyst, commented.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and allied producers (OPEC+) held to its decision to increase its June output target by 432,000 barrels per day despite appeals from Western nations to increase output more.


However, economists anticipate a far smaller increase in real production due to capacity restrictions.


According to Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at OANDA, "there is no possibility that certain countries would meet their quotas due to production difficulties affecting Nigeria and other African members."


A panel of the U.S. Senate adopted on Thursday a bill that could expose OPEC+ to lawsuits for colluding in raising oil prices.


On the supply side, the number of oil rigs in the United States increased by five to 557 this week, the highest level since April 2020. []RIG/U]


The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that hedge funds reduced their net long crude futures and options holdings in the week ending May 3.


As a result of the U.S. government's plan to purchase 60 million barrels of crude oil to replace emergency stocks, investors anticipate a rise in demand from the U.S. this autumn. However, indicators of a faltering global economy fueled demand concerns, so restraining oil price increases.


The Bank of England issued a warning on Thursday that Britain faces the double whammy of a recession and inflation above 10 percent. It increased interest rates by a quarter-point to 1 percent, the highest level since 2009.


China's strict COVID-19 restrictions are generating headwinds for the second-biggest economy and largest oil importer in the world.


The largest district of Beijing, Chaoyang, which is home to embassies and massive offices, will be devoid of any non-essential services.