October 11-17, heavy economic data and risk event forecast: FED meeting minutes and "terrorist data" strike

The next week is obviously another "super week". In terms of data, China's CPI, PPI data, and import and export data will be ushered in. The United States will announce heavy economic data such as CPI, PPI, and retail sales. In terms of risk events, OPEC , EIA and IEA will release monthly reports on the crude oil market. Several Fed vote committee and ECB officials will speak. In addition, the Fed will also release the minutes of the September monetary policy meeting.

Monday (October 11) Keywords: China's September social financing scale, Columbus Day in the United States;

The market on Monday may be relatively quiet, mainly paying attention to the influence of weekend news on the market and the further influence of non-agricultural data. In addition, China may release data on the scale of social financing and new RMB loans in September, and investors need to pay attention to it.

As the government increases credit support for the economy, the growth rate of China's social financing scale in September may increase from the August basis. The year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing may continue to slow down, but as the issuance of local government special bonds accelerates, the fourth quarter may begin to stabilize.

Economists expect the scale of social financing to increase by 3.11 trillion yuan in September, up from 2.96 trillion yuan in August. It is estimated that new RMB loans will be 1.82 trillion yuan, up from 1.22 trillion yuan in August. The year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing is expected to slightly decrease from 10.3% in August to 10.2%.

The year-on-year growth of new RMB loans may basically stabilize in September, and the growth of corporate loans has largely offset the decline in household mortgage loans caused by the tightening of the real estate market.

The issuance of local government special bonds for infrastructure project financing should increase relative to August, but given the relatively high base of comparison, the year-on-year growth rate may still slow down. As the base effect becomes more favorable, we expect the pace of special bond issuance to accelerate in the fourth quarter.


(Picture: China's social financing scale and new loans)

What needs to be reminded is that Monday coincides with Columbus Day in the United States, and the US financial market is closed on Monday. Affected by this, this week’s API crude oil inventory data and EIA crude oil inventory data are delayed by one trading day. API crude oil inventories will be GMT+8 10 It will be released at 4:30 am on the 14th. EIA crude oil inventory data will be released in Beijing at 23:00 on October 14.

Tuesday (October 12) Keywords: UK unemployment rate in September, US job vacancies in August

During the European session on Tuesday, we need to pay attention to the September employment data in the UK and the Eurozone prosperity index in October.

The market is more concerned about job vacancies in the United States during the New York session in August.

Vacancies, a leading indicator of employment growth, are likely to remain strong in August. In July, job vacancies surged to new highs, and demand in the manufacturing, other service industries, and leisure and hospitality industries hit the strongest since February 2020. Inability to fill vacancies will keep demand near record levels. ?

According to the Challenger report, recruitment in September is usually seasonal, but many announcements are for permanent rather than seasonal.


In terms of events, investors need to pay attention to the US House of Representatives voting on the temporary increase in the debt ceiling bill.

On October 8th, the U.S. Senate passed the debt ceiling increase bill by 50 votes to 48 votes. The House of Representatives will vote on the temporary debt ceiling increase bill on October 12. At present, it is more likely to pass. U.S. President Biden The bill will be signed after the House of Representatives passes the provisional debt ceiling bill.

The bipartisan leaders of the U.S. Senate reached a consensus on temporarily raising the debt ceiling, which seems to have temporarily escaped the federal government’s debt default for the first time in history. However, this move essentially only delayed the problem until December to be resolved.

An aide to the senator said that the short-term agreement raised the debt ceiling by $480 billion, enough to enable the Treasury Department to meet various payment requirements until December 3, thereby enabling the federal government to avoid the prospect of default around October 18.

Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities, said, "If it is really $480 billion, that is a considerable number. The Treasury should have enough room to reset their special measures and postpone the'x day' that may run out of cash to 2022. February or even March of the year."

However, after that, Congress still needs to vote to resolve the debt ceiling. Although the alarm is lifted, the December default crisis is already looming.

In addition, on Tuesday , there will be a speech by European Central Bank chief economist Lien and other officials , and investors also need to pay attention.

Wednesday (October 13) Keywords: China September Trade Account, September CPI of the United States, Fed Meeting Minutes, EIA and OPEC Monthly Report

During the Asian session on Wednesday, we first need to pay attention to China's September trade data . Analysts predict that China's import and export growth rate in September may slow down from August, but it may still maintain healthy growth.

Bloomberg Economic Research predicts that exports will increase by 18.0% year-on-year, which is lower than the 25.6% increase in August. The high comparison base a year ago and the impact of power shortages may lead to a slowdown in export growth.

The new export orders index in China's official PMI data in September fell for the sixth consecutive month. South Korea's export growth, a leading indicator of Chinese exports, has also slowed down significantly.

According to analyst estimates, import growth in September may slow to 20.2% from 33.1% in August.

Weak domestic demand caused by power shortages may affect imports. However, rising oil prices and other commodity prices may push up import costs to offset the slowdown. The import index in the official PMI data for September is still in a shrinking range.



During the European session on Thursday, investors need to pay attention to the UK GDP data for August . With output almost stagnating in July, UK GDP growth may accelerate again in August. Entering the fourth quarter, supply constraints and weak demand indicate that it is difficult for GDP to return to the level before the epidemic.

Analysts expect GDP to grow 0.5% in August, which is higher than the 0.1% increase in July.

The recent revision of the GDP growth path indicates that since the third quarter, economic growth momentum may increase slightly, which means that the forecast of 1.6% GDP growth in the third quarter faces certain upward risks. The Bank of England’s forecast is for an increase of 2.1%.

However, the potential slowdown in economic growth means that our forecast for the fourth quarter has downside risks.


The September CPI data for the United States will be released in the New York session on Thursday, which will be the focus of market attention. Analysts expect the US CPI in September to rise slightly to 5.4% year-on-year, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 5.3%. Due to the spread of natural disasters and the new crown pneumonia in the United States and Asia, the bottleneck of the interrupted supply chain has increased again and put pressure on manufactured products in September.

Given that salary growth is rising and work returns are still in progress, a key factor to pay attention to is housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI. After a moderate increase in 2021, growth will accelerate by 2022.


Analysts predict that the CPI will increase by 0.4% month-on-month in September, and the core CPI will increase by 0.3% month-on-month. Gasoline prices adjusted for seasonal factors are expected to rise by about 1.4%, which is enough to make the month-on-month increase by about 10 basis points.

The rise in prices of home appliances, consumer electronics and other non-essential consumer goods affected by rising international transportation costs and port congestion in September will push up the core inflation rate.

Economists’ view is that supply chain bottlenecks persist, and rising energy prices will push the inflation rate to more than 2% in the second half of 2022. With the normalization of the upper limit of the 2.0%-2.5% range in 2023, the Fed will begin to raise interest rates for the first time.

In terms of events, first of all, you need to pay attention to the OPEC crude oil market end-of-month report and the EIA crude oil market monthly report. Pay attention to the latest status and expected changes of the energy agency’s demand and supply of the crude oil market, as well as changes in crude oil inventories. If the report is optimistic, it may further impact oil prices. Provide opportunities for high; on the contrary, you need to beware of the risk of oil price correction or even peaking.

Secondly, investors need to focus on the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting . The interest rate decision in September is biased towards the hawks and basically finalized the schedule for reducing the scale of bond purchases in November. However, the meeting minutes are more likely to be hawkish than expected.

The minutes of the September 21-22 meeting showed that just before the release of the latest employment report, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was on the verge of reducing debt purchases. Fed Chairman Powell said in a post-meeting press release that “many on the committee believe that the test of substantial further progress in employment has been reached”, thus avoiding the information that might normally be included in meeting minutes.

Analysts believe that the monthly reduction of holdings will reach 15 billion US dollars, allowing asset purchases to end in mid-2022. In order to minimize accidents, the minutes of the meeting may provide more clues in order to get more support in which aspect of the narrow options.

The Fed has the ability to maintain a monitoring model for inflation concerns in the short term, but the discussion in the meeting minutes will clarify that despite the decline in economic growth forecasts, how and whether inflation concerns will lead to a higher dot matrix.

Thursday (October 14) Keywords: China September CPI and PPI, US September PPI data

During the Asian session on Thursday, investors need to focus on China's September CPI data and PPI data.

China's September Consumer Price Index (CPI) may remain sluggish, but it rebounded slightly from the August low. The overall CPI is expected to increase by 1.0% year-on-year, which is higher than the 0.8% in August.

Rising non-food prices may boost inflation. The prices of services, especially entertainment and transportation prices, may have risen further. Energy price inflation may also accelerate due to rising global oil prices and recent power shortages.

Looking in the opposite direction, the fall in food prices in September seems to have intensified, dragging down inflation. The price of pork has fallen faster. In September, the Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs fell, reversing the August increase.


As the price trend of bulk commodities rises, China's September industrial producer ex-factory price increase may accelerate. The producer price index (PPI) of industrial producers is expected to rise 10.2% year-on-year, which is higher than the 9.5% increase in August.

The PPI tracking indicator of PPI rose further in September, reflecting the increase in commodity prices. Rebar prices rose 47% year-on-year, which was higher than the 39% increase in August. Domestic oil and coal prices have risen by more than 50% over the same period last year.

The input and output price sub-index in the official PMI data rose relative to August, further entering the expansion area, indicating that the upward pressure on the overall PPI has increased.



During the New York session on Friday, investors need to focus on the weekly changes in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States and September PPI data.

Analysts expect that the initial number of initial jobless claims will continue to decline, because the surge in delta variant cases has subsided and economic activity has rebounded. It is estimated that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time will decrease by 26,000, and the decrease of 38,000 at the beginning of October will completely reverse the temporary increase of 52,000 in the previous three weeks.

The seasonal adjustment process may have played a huge role, as seasonal factors are expected to increase the number of unadjusted claims this week by 52,000. This runs counter to the recent tightening of the labor market, which analysts believe will hit a new pandemic low.

In terms of PPI data, the US August Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.7% month-on-month in August. The U.S. August PPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since the data was compiled in 2010. Excluding the prices of food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year in August, a record high since 2014.

Although economists expect the month-on-month growth rate will slow down, the year-on-year growth rate will still further refresh the historical maximum growth rate. In September, the ISM manufacturing survey showed that due to the interruption of the storm, transportation chaos and shortage of parts and components, the supply bottleneck intensified.

The September PPI will further prove that the continued imbalance between supply and demand is causing prices to rise and ultimately leading to more risks transmitted to consumers.

In terms of events, during European time, the IEA will publish a monthly report on the crude oil market , and investors need to pay attention. In addition, during the New York time, the Fed’s vote committee, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic and Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin ’s speeches will also be heard by investors. Need to focus on.

Friday (October 15) Keywords: US September terrorist data

There are relatively few market data during the Asia-Europe period on Friday. The main focus is on the September retail sales data of the United States during the New York period. This data has a greater impact on the market and has a high degree of market attention. It has the common name of "horror data". Investors need Focus.

As most sales categories increased in August to offset the impact of weak auto demand, the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in August was much better than expected. Specific data show that the US retail sales in August increased by 0.70% month-on-month, expected -0.7%, and the previous value -1.8%; core retail sales in the US, excluding automobiles, gasoline and food, increased by 1.80% month-on-month, expected to be 0.0%, the previous value Value -0.4%, the largest increase in five months.

The US August retail sales data improved more than expected, partly due to back-to-school shopping and financial subsidies received by millions of families with children, which also showed the tenacity of demand for goods. The report shows that retailers without stores, grocery stores and furniture stores have stronger revenues. In addition, the Delta mutant strain is suppressing demand for service industries such as tourism and leisure. Statistics show that income from restaurants and bars stagnated in August, compared with a 2.1% increase in grocery store income.

Nevertheless, the surge in new crown cases in the United States in August, rising prices and continuing supply chain challenges have prompted analysts to lower their third-quarter economic growth forecasts for the United States.

Analysts pointed out that the retail industry is still facing the problem of supply chain disruption, and many retail executives said that this problem is more serious than this time last year. This makes people increasingly worried that holiday goods from overseas will be delayed, and the surge of Delta mutant strains in parts of the United States may also change consumer behavior.

Analysts estimate that the modest decline in retail spending in September will reflect the uneven performance of various industries, which has been the theme since the surge in stimulus measures in March. From an inflation-adjusted perspective, the decline will be even greater, which further proves that consumer spending will be difficult to achieve growth in the third quarter GDP data scheduled for release later in October.