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The mayor of Moscow said Russian air defenses shot down a drone flying towards Moscow.On October 28, a senior Japanese government official stated that the Japanese and US governments are preparing to release a fact sheet including potential investment projects in the United States. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, among other companies, is expected to be mentioned. The list will cover potential investment projects in areas such as power generation and automotive-related products.On October 28th, HSBC Global Research reported that after Pop Mart (09992.HK) released strong third-quarter operating data, its share price fell 8%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index over the same period, and short selling on the stock reached a new high. Based on investor feedback, the bank believes the markets price reaction stems from diverging interpretations of the same data. The bank believes Pop Mart (09992.HK) is proactively de-bugging the secondary market by increasing supply to end users and cracking down on scalpers, thereby lowering resale prices and restoring the secondary markets function as an indicator. The bank believes Pop Mart is still in its growth phase and is promoting the globalization of its IP products. The stock is currently valued at 15.4 times its projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratio, with an expected 26% compound annual growth rate in earnings per share from 2025 to 2027. The bank maintains its target price of HK$392.5 (equivalent to a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.3 times this year and 26.6 times next year) and a "buy" rating.On October 28th, Goldman Sachs released a report stating that Anta Sports (02020.HK)s weak third-quarter results were in line with lowered market expectations and more conservative peers. While niche brands maintained solid performance, the Fila brand, impacted by mild winter weather, saw only low-single-digit year-over-year growth, maintaining its full-year revenue guidance at mid-single digits. Antas core brand also underperformed expectations with low-single-digit year-over-year growth in the third quarter. This, coupled with weak sales momentum so far in the fourth quarter, has led the company to further lower its full-year revenue guidance from mid-single digits to low-single digits. Goldman Sachs maintains a positive view on Antas long-term growth prospects, believing its multi-brand platform and strong cost control capabilities are sufficient to support this. The company lowered its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 by 3-4%, reflecting slower growth at the Anta and Fila brands. The target price was lowered from HK$121 to HK$115, with a "Buy" rating maintained.On October 28th, Nomura reported that Anta Sports (02020.HK) management lowered its full-year sales growth target for its core brand for the second time this year, impacted by weak industry sales. The company now expects year-over-year sales growth for its core brand to be in the low single digits in 2025, down from its previous forecast of mid-single digits. The report stated that despite the inevitable slowdown in the groups growth, sales performance in the third quarter of 2025 remained resilient. The report lowered the groups target price by 4%, from HK$121.8 to HK$117, while maintaining a "buy" rating.

Nine Reasons Why the S&P500 Should Continue to Rally

Skylar Shaw

Apr 07, 2022 11:11


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S&P 500 Technical Comparison With 2021 Rally

Although it is frequently said that "past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes," in this update, I will examine nine distinct TA items to determine whether, as Mark Twain famously remarked, "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes." Take a look at Figure 1.


Figure 1: Daily candlestick charts of the S&P500 using a variety of technical indicators and moving averages.


The comparison to November 2021 shows that increased costs are on the way.


I compare the present rally to the one that began in October 2021 and lasted until December 2021, since the SPX has already risen about 500 points from the February 24 low. In the Tas, I've numbered the similarities between then and today. This approach enables objective evaluation of the price chart:


  1. The Bollinger Bands expanded initially (black arrows), then the lower band bottomed, followed by a move back up, much like the index.

  2. The index is above its 200-day simple moving average (in red) (SMA)

  3. The Ichimoku Cloud is above the index.

  4. The index is above the 50-day SMA.

  5. The index is above the 20-day SMA.

  6. The index dropped slightly before rallying.

  7. The RSI5 dropped quickly, but did not go below 50.

  8. The MACD fell slightly, and the histogram crested, but it was still solidly going upward.

  9. MFI14 (Money Flow Indicator) remained around 70.

US Stock Market Technical Forecast

Since the notorious February 24 bottom, the S&P500 has rebounded almost 500 points. There are (at least) nine parallels between the most recent surge (October-December 2021) and presently, according to an impartial examination. The surge paused for a short while before adding 4.5 percent, followed by a more dramatic reversal (-5.3 percent).


The index experienced a brief pause in the middle of last week and has since resumed its upward trend. Similar to the surge in October and December of 21. Based on these nine comparable TA settings, the current rally has a good chance of reaching new uptrend highs (think SPX4750+/-50) before a more major pullback (think SPX4350+/-50).


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