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On April 3, Morningstar Information (MORN.N) released its 2024 financial report. The companys full-year revenue in 2024 was US$2.3 billion, an increase of 11.6% over the previous year; consolidated operating profit reached US$484.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 110.2%; cash flow from operating activities was US$591.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 87.0%; free cash flow reached US$448.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 127.5%. In terms of business, credit business is the main driving force for the companys revenue growth, achieving a 35.1% increase, and the adjusted operating profit margin rose to 26%, an increase of 15.9 percentage points over the previous year. In addition, in 2024, the companys investment management and consulting assets increased by 12.3% and 19.7% respectively over the previous year. At the same time, the companys investment advisory accounts achieved double-digit growth in 2024.Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoji Muto: We are strongly concerned about whether the US tariff measures are in line with WTO agreements.Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoji Muto: We will strongly request the United States to exempt Japan from tariff measures and set up a special working group to provide information and grasp the impact.Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoji Muto: The content of (US tariffs) needs to be analyzed and the impact on the Japanese economy examined.Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto: We have told the United States that the new tariff announcement is "extremely regrettable."

Global Macro Analysis

Cory Russell

Apr 07, 2022 11:35


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The S&P 500 index fell 1.0 percent on Wednesday. US 2s10s steepened even further, with 10yr rates rising 5 basis points to 2.6 percent, the most in three years, and 2yr yields falling 5 basis points to 2.47 percent. The price of oil has dropped by 4.7 percent.


I won't go into detail about the FED minutes since Vice-Chairman Brainard has previously laid the groundwork.


The global bond market resumed its sell-off after a March respite, causing a worsening in cross-asset risk sentiment, with global tech equities suffering the brunt of the fallout.


In a high-inflation climate, reducing the balance sheet is a substantial source of market uncertainty. However, despite the build-up of economic and geopolitical headwinds over the previous several weeks, stock markets were overbought to a great extent, so this is simply a corrective move to a more sensible level.


The major source of worry seems to be rates, so if rates manage to stabilize, we may see a systematic bid return. However, if interest rate volatility remains high, stocks may continue to be under pressure.


The overnight movement in US transport equities is the latest in a long line of smoke signals the market is sending about recession fears. No market analyst is predicting a recession with too much speed in the economy, but that does not rule out the possibility that some of the signs of one are beginning to appear.


The overall picture has shifted from a certain mid-cycle situation a month or two ago to a late-cycle likelihood presently. I've been preaching about the compressed nature of market cycles since Covid's inception, and the most recent adjustment took weeks rather than a year. Another illustration of the ticker tape's ruthlessness and the speed with which key pivots are priced.


The point is that, similar to the 2's10's inversion, although we may argue about the likelihood of a recession and if the Transports move is a signal for one, the viciousness of pricing actions has pushed people's hands whether they believe in them or not.


Even though one swallow does not make a spring, it seems that the market is concerned that the Fed is behind the curve, and that something like the Volcker adjustment is in the cards with that proviso in mind.