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The SC crude oil futures contract hit its daily limit again, rising 13.99% to 641.1 yuan per barrel, after previously narrowing its gains to 5.64%.On March 4th, a research team at Natixis stated that under their baseline scenario, oil prices are likely to trade around $80 per barrel in the short term due to Irans limited ability to continue disrupting Middle Eastern oil flows. The team noted that current US and Israeli military actions against Iran are primarily focused on military and air transport facilities. Although Iran attacked a Saudi oil refinery and a Qatari liquefied natural gas facility earlier this week, there has been no substantial disruption to overall energy supplies. The report stated, "There are currently no significant disruptions to oil supply, only short-term disturbances in transport via the Strait of Hormuz."Iranian Foreign Ministry: German advisors are pressuring EU countries to conspire in acts of aggression against us.On March 4th, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if the economic and price outlook aligns with its expectations, while closely monitoring the impact of the Middle East conflict. Speaking in parliament, Ueda said that developments in the Middle East could significantly impact the global and Japanese economies through rising energy costs and financial market volatility. "Rising oil prices will worsen Japans terms of trade and drag down the economy, which in turn could put downward pressure on underlying inflation." However, he added that if oil price increases continue, they could also push up underlying inflation by raising medium- to long-term inflation expectations for households and businesses. When asked about the recent depreciation of the yen, he said the Bank of Japan is analyzing "very cautiously" how exchange rate fluctuations will affect current and future price trends.On March 4th, Daiwa Research reported that it expects Baidus (09888.HK) Kunlun Chip IPO valuation to be higher than its peers due to its larger revenue scale and better profitability. Currently, Kunlun Chip derives most of its revenue from external demand, with major clients including Tencent and a large telecommunications operator. Management stated that chip production capacity constraints are not a short-term concern for the company, as Kunlun Chip has secured sufficient supply to support development over the next two years. The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating on Baidu with a target price of HK$175 and maintained its earnings forecasts for this year and next. Recent catalysts include the Kunlun Chip listing and details of the 2026 dividend plan.

Natural Gas: XNG/USD bears continue to monitor $2.13 in advance of EIA inventories

Daniel Rogers

Mar 30, 2023 15:59

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Natural Gas (XNG/USD) price fluctuates near the intraday low of $2.23, declining the previous day's corrective rebound off a five-week low ahead of Thursday's European session. In doing so, the energy instrument fails to bolster expectations of increased demand from China in the face of inflation concerns, hawkish central bank actions, and a stronger US dollar.

 

China's willingness to import 65,000 tonnes of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Premier Li Qiang's upbeat comments have supported the XNG/USD. Premier Qiang of China stated that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. However, the policymaker also increased geopolitical tension by opposing trade protectionism and decoupling, which indirectly target the United States and stimulate the Natural Gas bulls.

 

On the other hand, rumors that German gas pipelines are once again reliable for transporting energy, following previous challenges from Russia, impact on the XNG/USD exchange rate. In addition, the majority of central bankers defend their prior bias regarding inflation, exerting downward pressure on the commodity. In addition, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, stated on Thursday, "Urgently need faster, more efficient mechanisms for providing debt support to vulnerable countries." Her remarks revive previously alleviated banking concerns.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) adheres to modest gains while S&P 500 Futures struggle around a one-week high set the day before. In addition, the yields on the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds grind higher after tantalizing bond purchasers the day before.

 

Moving forward, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), preceding -72B, may influence XNG/USD price action. Nonetheless, the headlines surrounding inflation and the banking system, as well as China, should be given the utmost focus for direction.