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RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusueras: Warsh delivered the right hawkish signals at the press conference and attempted to reinforce the Fed’s credibility in restoring price stability, while also enhancing his own credibility.U.S. stocks continued to decline after the Walsh press conference, with the S&P 500 falling 1%, its biggest drop since July 29, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.65%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%.On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh declined to answer questions at a press conference regarding his interactions with US President Trump. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates in recent months. Warsh stated, "I have no comment on my discussions with the president." White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Christopher Phelan said on Tuesday that raising interest rates would be a "mistake."On September 17th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated that he would not disclose details of future interest rate decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said, "I am not responsible for providing forward guidance. Our decision today (to raise interest rates) is a carefully considered, serious, and responsible one. We have been preparing for and thinking about this decision for the past 110 or 120 days." Warsh also stated that this decision was not market-driven. He said, "Our decision today is based on our assessment of the current situation, our judgment of the employment trend, and our assessment of the strength of the economy. Sometimes, the market tries to anticipate our decisions. I watch market prices to see what information the market is sending. But todays decision is our own."On September 17th, Warsh stated that while the Federal Reserve cannot prevent price shocks in commodities such as oil on its own, the central bank can use policy tools to prevent further spread of inflationary pressures. Warsh said, "We cannot influence the price of any single commodity, such as oil or groceries." However, he pointed out, "We can and will ensure that any changes in relative prices do not spread further, and do not have second- or third-order effects on the economy. Thats our responsibility, and thats what were doing." Warsh made these remarks as U.S. diesel prices hit a record high due to the Iran war.

Natural Gas Prices Continue to Rise, Reaching a Multi-Month High

Drake Hampton

Mar 31, 2022 10:17

Significant Insights

  • Natural gas prices have surged significantly.

  • Prices finished close to a four-month high.

  • The weather is forecast to be typical.

 

Natural gas prices spiked on Wednesday, ahead of the Energy Information Administration's inventory update on Thursday. Estimize, a survey provider, anticipates a 14 Bcf drop in inventories. The weather is forecast to remain normal during the next six to ten and eight to fourteen days, with high temperatures along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

 

Residential and commercial sectors drive reduce natural gas consumption in the United States. Natural gas usage in the United States decreased by 18.6 percent in the previous report week. Week over week, natural gas use for power generation decreased by 7.0 percent. Consumption in the industrial sector declined by 5.5 percent. Consumption fell by 37.1 percent in the residential and commercial sectors.

Technical analysis

Natural gas prices finished at a multi-month high on Wednesday and are ready to test new highs. Near the October highs of 6.46, resistance is present.

 

The short-term momentum indicator has turned positive as a crossing buy signal was given by the fast stochastic. Prices have re-entered overbought territory, with the Fast Stochastic reading 93, exceeding the overbought trigger level of 80.

 

The medium-term trend has shifted to the positive. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator generates a buy signal upon crossover. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average divided by the 26-day moving average) crosses over the MACD line's 9-day moving average.


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