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According to AFP, citing official sources, Israel has not yet decided on Hamas response to the ceasefire proposal.July 5th, on Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, further accelerating production increases. OPEC+ approved a monthly production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in May, June and July, and 138,000 barrels per day in April. Sources said that some member countries (such as Kazakhstan and Iraq) over-target production angered other member countries that insisted on production cuts. Sources said that OPEC+ hopes to expand its market share amid the increasing supply of competitors such as the United States. With the increase in production in August, the production released by OPEC+ since April will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day have not yet been restored. The organization is still implementing other production cuts totaling 3.66 million barrels per day. The next OPEC+ meeting will be held on August 3.On July 5, Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bologan said in an interview with the media that the recent claims that Romania might send troops to Ukraine are unfounded and Romania will not consider military intervention in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict under any circumstances. However, Bologan also pointed out that Romania will continue to gradually increase its military budget to meet NATOs requirements and be consistent with the EUs broader militarization agenda.According to the latest battle report from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian army lost about 1,265 soldiers during the special military operation in the past day and night.OPEC+ statement: Global economic outlook is stable and market fundamentals are healthy. The eight member countries will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August.

Gold Analysis – A Dreadful Forecast for the First Quarter of 2022 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Drake Hampton

Mar 31, 2022 10:10

Analysis of the Gold Price 

Gold prices rose today after falling to a low of roughly $1886.90 yesterday. This price point is crucial because it correlates to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level. The data set used to calculate the Fibonacci retracement series begins in late January with gold trading at $1779.10 and ends on March 8, with gold trading at $2078, just $10 below the record high. Between the end of January and the first week of March, gold gained around $300.

 

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Gold was able to gain $300 in the face of a tremendously aggressive Federal Reserve that is expected to intervene to stop inflation from spinning out of control.

Forecasts for Federal Reserve Actions, Inflation, and Interest Rates

Chairman Jerome Powell noted during his most recent press conference that the present level of inflation needs a significant adjustment to their current monetary policy on two fronts. To begin, they have committed to increase the Fed Funds rate at each of the remaining six Federal Open Market Committee meetings this year. Initially, it was anticipated that each rate increase would be 14%. Recent data, however, indicate that inflationary pressures are continuing to spiral faster than expected, with no indications of abatement imminent.

 

Today, the FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a 12% rate hike has decreased somewhat to 66.6 percent, while the probability of a 14% rate hike has increased slightly to 33.4 percent. That may all change tomorrow, when the government announces the February PCE inflationary index.

Forecasts for the PCE and CPI Indices 

Currently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has provided its PCE and CPI index estimates and predictions. Their projection implies a 0.62 percent year-over-year increase in PCE. Additionally, they issued a forecast for March's consumer price index, which will be revealed next month. Their projection is based on statistics from the Labor Department, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Energy Information Administration, the Financial Times, and Haver Analytics.

 

According to their analysis, they forecast that the March CPI index would grow 8.41 percent year over year and that the March PCE index will increase 0.75 percent year over year. However, the most worrying prognosis is for inflation in the first quarter of 2022, which they believe would be 9.01 percent more than in the first quarter of 2021.

 

The Federal Reserve is confronting an uncontrollable level of inflation. The war in Ukraine has significantly harmed Russia's and Ukraine's ability to produce and sell grains to the European Union, which will almost surely increase food prices. Russia sends a significant portion of energy goods to the European Union, which will also see significant reductions as a result of Russia's continued pressure on crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas prices.

Impact of Crude Oil on Inflation

Crude oil prices continue to trade comfortably above $100 per barrel, with the most actively traded crude lite futures contract up 3.04 percent to $107.41 per barrel today. Costs will almost surely climb as long as energy and food supplies continue to dwindle. This can only result in an escalation of inflationary pressures.

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