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On December 21, the French presidential palace stated that it would determine the "best way" for French President Macron to hold dialogue with Russian President Putin "in the coming days." The French presidential palace welcomed Russias statement that Putin was willing to engage in dialogue with Macron, and that France believed the aim of such dialogue was to achieve a "stable and lasting peace," and that the content would be "transparent" to Ukraine and Europe.December 21 - According to a report released by the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, a 5.6-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of North Maluku province, Indonesia, at 19:21 local time on December 21. The epicenter was located at 1.47 degrees north latitude and 126.34 degrees east longitude, with a focal depth of 27 kilometers.December 21 - On December 21, MiniMax, a general artificial intelligence company, published its post-hearing information set prospectus for the first time.On December 21, Russian Presidential Aide Ushakov told the media that the proposal to hold trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine has not yet been put on the agenda or discussed. He also pointed out that the modifications proposed by Ukraine and Europe to the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" are not conducive to advancing the agreement. Ushakov confirmed that Russias Special Representative for Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation, Dmitriev, is currently in Miami holding talks with the US. He revealed that Dmitriev will report on the results of the talks with the US after returning to Moscow. On the same day, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov told the media that President Putin has no plans to speak with US President Trump before the end of the year, but arranging a call would be easy.On December 21st, according to Japanese sources, during a debate program, Itsunori Onodera, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Partys (LDP) Security Research Council, proposed that it is necessary to discuss the definition of the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles." He discussed Japans current reliance on the US "nuclear umbrella," stating, "This is one of the issues that should be discussed." Onodera said the LDP plans to submit a related motion to the Cabinet in February next year to promote discussion in the Diet. The "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" refer to not possessing, manufacturing, or introducing nuclear weapons. Recently, several political parties, politicians, and numerous civic organizations in Japan have called for adherence to the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" to avoid a repeat of the tragedy of war.

Gold Analysis – A Dreadful Forecast for the First Quarter of 2022 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Drake Hampton

Mar 31, 2022 10:10

Analysis of the Gold Price 

Gold prices rose today after falling to a low of roughly $1886.90 yesterday. This price point is crucial because it correlates to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level. The data set used to calculate the Fibonacci retracement series begins in late January with gold trading at $1779.10 and ends on March 8, with gold trading at $2078, just $10 below the record high. Between the end of January and the first week of March, gold gained around $300.

 

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Gold was able to gain $300 in the face of a tremendously aggressive Federal Reserve that is expected to intervene to stop inflation from spinning out of control.

Forecasts for Federal Reserve Actions, Inflation, and Interest Rates

Chairman Jerome Powell noted during his most recent press conference that the present level of inflation needs a significant adjustment to their current monetary policy on two fronts. To begin, they have committed to increase the Fed Funds rate at each of the remaining six Federal Open Market Committee meetings this year. Initially, it was anticipated that each rate increase would be 14%. Recent data, however, indicate that inflationary pressures are continuing to spiral faster than expected, with no indications of abatement imminent.

 

Today, the FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a 12% rate hike has decreased somewhat to 66.6 percent, while the probability of a 14% rate hike has increased slightly to 33.4 percent. That may all change tomorrow, when the government announces the February PCE inflationary index.

Forecasts for the PCE and CPI Indices 

Currently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has provided its PCE and CPI index estimates and predictions. Their projection implies a 0.62 percent year-over-year increase in PCE. Additionally, they issued a forecast for March's consumer price index, which will be revealed next month. Their projection is based on statistics from the Labor Department, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Energy Information Administration, the Financial Times, and Haver Analytics.

 

According to their analysis, they forecast that the March CPI index would grow 8.41 percent year over year and that the March PCE index will increase 0.75 percent year over year. However, the most worrying prognosis is for inflation in the first quarter of 2022, which they believe would be 9.01 percent more than in the first quarter of 2021.

 

The Federal Reserve is confronting an uncontrollable level of inflation. The war in Ukraine has significantly harmed Russia's and Ukraine's ability to produce and sell grains to the European Union, which will almost surely increase food prices. Russia sends a significant portion of energy goods to the European Union, which will also see significant reductions as a result of Russia's continued pressure on crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas prices.

Impact of Crude Oil on Inflation

Crude oil prices continue to trade comfortably above $100 per barrel, with the most actively traded crude lite futures contract up 3.04 percent to $107.41 per barrel today. Costs will almost surely climb as long as energy and food supplies continue to dwindle. This can only result in an escalation of inflationary pressures.

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