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July 17th - According to industry sources, Kazakhstan exported its first batch of gasoline to Russia in July, supplying approximately 1,000 tons to central Russia. Due to Ukraines continued escalation of drone attacks on oil refineries across Russia, the country is facing a gasoline shortage. Russian authorities are seeking to increase fuel supplies from Kazakhstan and Belarus and have begun importing gasoline from India by sea.On July 17, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and five other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Ecological and Environmental Protection of Soil, Groundwater, and Agriculture and Rural Areas." The plan outlines five key tasks: strengthening risk management of construction land, enhancing ecological and environmental protection of agricultural land, deepening collaborative prevention and control of groundwater pollution, promoting the construction of beautiful villages, and improving governance efficiency. The plan includes major projects such as soil pollution source control projects and special remediation projects for soil pollution in 1-kilometer stretch of former chemical plant sites along the Yangtze River, as well as special tasks such as conducting the second national soil pollution survey and a national groundwater pollution investigation and assessment.July 17th: Building materials transaction volume 84,000 tons, up 9.95% from the previous trading day. July 16th: Building materials transaction volume 76,400 tons, down 18.2% from the previous trading day. July 15th: Building materials transaction volume 93,400 tons, down 4.6% from the previous trading day. July 14th: Building materials transaction volume 97,900 tons, up 44.18% from the previous trading day. July 13th: Building materials transaction volume 67,900 tons, down 9.1% from the previous trading day. Last weeks average: Building materials transaction volume 90,000 tons. This weeks average: Building materials transaction volume 80,000 tons.British Labour Party leader Burnham: How can we control inflation if we don’t have enough public control over the cost of basic necessities?Labour Party leader Burnham: I have not yet decided on cabinet members.

Gold Analysis – A Dreadful Forecast for the First Quarter of 2022 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Drake Hampton

Mar 31, 2022 10:10

Analysis of the Gold Price 

Gold prices rose today after falling to a low of roughly $1886.90 yesterday. This price point is crucial because it correlates to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level. The data set used to calculate the Fibonacci retracement series begins in late January with gold trading at $1779.10 and ends on March 8, with gold trading at $2078, just $10 below the record high. Between the end of January and the first week of March, gold gained around $300.

 

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Gold was able to gain $300 in the face of a tremendously aggressive Federal Reserve that is expected to intervene to stop inflation from spinning out of control.

Forecasts for Federal Reserve Actions, Inflation, and Interest Rates

Chairman Jerome Powell noted during his most recent press conference that the present level of inflation needs a significant adjustment to their current monetary policy on two fronts. To begin, they have committed to increase the Fed Funds rate at each of the remaining six Federal Open Market Committee meetings this year. Initially, it was anticipated that each rate increase would be 14%. Recent data, however, indicate that inflationary pressures are continuing to spiral faster than expected, with no indications of abatement imminent.

 

Today, the FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of a 12% rate hike has decreased somewhat to 66.6 percent, while the probability of a 14% rate hike has increased slightly to 33.4 percent. That may all change tomorrow, when the government announces the February PCE inflationary index.

Forecasts for the PCE and CPI Indices 

Currently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has provided its PCE and CPI index estimates and predictions. Their projection implies a 0.62 percent year-over-year increase in PCE. Additionally, they issued a forecast for March's consumer price index, which will be revealed next month. Their projection is based on statistics from the Labor Department, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Energy Information Administration, the Financial Times, and Haver Analytics.

 

According to their analysis, they forecast that the March CPI index would grow 8.41 percent year over year and that the March PCE index will increase 0.75 percent year over year. However, the most worrying prognosis is for inflation in the first quarter of 2022, which they believe would be 9.01 percent more than in the first quarter of 2021.

 

The Federal Reserve is confronting an uncontrollable level of inflation. The war in Ukraine has significantly harmed Russia's and Ukraine's ability to produce and sell grains to the European Union, which will almost surely increase food prices. Russia sends a significant portion of energy goods to the European Union, which will also see significant reductions as a result of Russia's continued pressure on crude oil, gasoline, and natural gas prices.

Impact of Crude Oil on Inflation

Crude oil prices continue to trade comfortably above $100 per barrel, with the most actively traded crude lite futures contract up 3.04 percent to $107.41 per barrel today. Costs will almost surely climb as long as energy and food supplies continue to dwindle. This can only result in an escalation of inflationary pressures.

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