International gold prices turn up and the U.S. index weakens; but investors are hoping for new clues from the FED

On Thursday (October 7) European time, international gold prices rebounded and turned up due to the weakening of the US dollar index. However, investors generally remained cautious before the release of the US non-agricultural data in September. They are seeking new clues from the Federal Reserve on reducing the pace of debt purchases.

At GMT+8 16:08, spot gold rose 0.08% to US$1,764.25 per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract rose 0.19% to US$1765.2 per ounce; the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 94.157.


Faced with concerns that upward pressure on prices may last longer, the Fed will have to act faster to normalize monetary policy. Boosted by this expectation, the U.S. dollar recorded a high of 94.504 since September 28, 2020 last week, which suppressed the price of gold.

Data released overnight showed that private employment in the United States increased strongly in September. The upcoming US non-agricultural report on Friday (October 8) is expected to show an improvement in the labor market, which is an important criterion for the Fed to begin to reduce support measures during the epidemic.

Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management, said: "The central bank is watching inflation continue to rise, and the situation is precarious... Historically speaking, this is good for gold, but this is not the case in an environment where the central bank has begun to shift to an interest rate hike model. If the U.S. employment data is strong in September and the U.S. Treasury yield rises to 1.6%, gold may fall to $1,725."

Tai Hui, chief Asian market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said: "We expect that US Treasury yields will continue to rise in the context of the Fed's exit from QE and the US economic recovery, and this will also be the focus of the market in the near future. US Treasury yields. The rate will not rise endlessly. At some point they will stabilize and I think the dollar will face slightly greater downward pressure by then, which is why we still expect the dollar to weaken."

The U.S. Senate minority leader and Republican Congressman Mitch McConnell proposed to Democrats on Wednesday to temporarily raise the U.S. government debt ceiling until December this year, in order to lift the imminent debt ceiling crisis and buy time for the final increase of the debt ceiling. According to Treasury Secretary Yellen’s previous estimates, if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in time before October 18, the US government will have its first debt default in history, with disastrous consequences.

According to reports, the Democrats will decide to accept McConnell’s proposal, and Congress can vote on it as early as Thursday. If McConnell’s proposal is passed smoothly, the tensions caused by a series of urgent fiscal issues in Congress between the end of September and the beginning of October will be postponed to December. Previously, Congress passed the bill on September 30, avoiding the government's shutdown at the last minute, and agreed to provide temporary funding for the government until December 3. Therefore, Congress will face the dual problems of debt ceiling and government shutdown from the end of November to the beginning of December.

Vincent Tie, sales manager of Singapore-based trader Silver Bullion, said: "We need to see the price of gold break through the major resistance levels before we can better understand whether the price of gold is about to end its short-term bearish trend."