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On August 26th, it was reported that in July, total electricity consumption in China exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours again, with electricity consumption for internet data services increasing by 40% year-on-year. Computing power is becoming a significant source of new electricity consumption. In August, the peak electricity load of a smart computing center in Changshu, Jiangsu Province, increased by over 70% compared to the same period last year. The peak electricity load of the computing power industry reached 200,000 kilowatts, accounting for approximately 4.1% of the citys total electricity load. The State Grid Changshu Power Supply Company stated that the computing power industry contributed nearly half of the citys increased electricity load, accounting for approximately 49%, reflecting that computing power load is gradually replacing seasonal air conditioning load as the core driver of electricity consumption growth this summer. In July, the electricity consumption of 106 computing power centers in Jiangsu Province exceeded 1.3 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with supercomputing and smart computing centers accounting for over 80% of the total.Dubai International Airport (DISA) reported on August 26 that passenger traffic fell by nearly a third in the first half of the year due to disruptions caused by the war in Iran, but expects demand to recover in the second half. DISA stated that passenger traffic reached 13 million in the second quarter, bringing the total for the first half of the year to 31.5 million. Despite a rebound in traffic in May and June, first-half traffic was still 31% lower than the record level set in the same period last year. The war in Iran has led to a global readjustment of air routes, repeatedly disrupting DISA. In May, the airport announced it had postponed its target of 100 million annual passengers by one year due to the significant drop in passenger traffic. Major Middle Eastern airlines Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways have all reduced operations and adjusted their international route networks to accommodate increased travel demand during the war. Several European airlines have also suspended flights to multiple destinations in the region and avoided the airspace of several Gulf states.August 26th - According to the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, the import and export volume of comprehensive bonded zones (including cross-border industrial zones and bonded areas) in Guangdong Province reached 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, setting a new record for the same period in history and surpassing the trillion-yuan mark two months earlier than last year. While Guangdongs foreign trade has exceeded one trillion yuan for two consecutive months, the provinces comprehensive bonded zones continue to play a driving role, contributing 23.3% to Guangdongs foreign trade growth in the first seven months of this year.Slovakian power company said that Unit 3 of the Mohawkwice nuclear power plant has been reconnected to the grid after a shutdown for fuel replacement.On August 26th, Citigroup predicted that South Korean companies will issue a record amount of money in global bond and stock markets in 2026. Companies are raising growth funds through international investors, most notably SK Hynixs $26.5 billion US IPO. Jangho Park, CEO of Citigroup Global Markets Korea, said on Wednesday that South Korea has a growing number of "world-class companies and emerging industry leaders who are increasingly leveraging capital markets with competitive financing terms to raise funds for their growth goals." Citigroups optimistic outlook comes as South Koreas two largest chipmakers are becoming major beneficiaries of global artificial intelligence infrastructure development. South Korea is seeking to encourage companies, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, to invest at least 1350 trillion won ($975 billion) in chip and data center construction, although many projects are still in the early planning stages.

International crude oil is falling, NYMEX oil price is expected to fall to 73.83 US dollars, OPEC+ may further relax the "oil brake"

Oct 26, 2021 10:57

On Friday (October 1), international oil prices fell because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) may increase the planned production increase to ease supply concerns. NYMEX crude oil is expected to fall to $73.83.

At GMT+8 16:09, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.76% to $74.46 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.65% to $77.80 per barrel.


All eyes in the market are now on the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners (OPEC+) to be held next Monday (October 4). In addition to the 400,000 barrels per day in November and December promised by the existing agreement, oil-producing countries are expected to discuss other options.

Four OPEC+ sources said that it is possible to further increase oil production, but no one gave a specific amount or specific month. Another OPEC+ source said that there may be an increase of 800,000 barrels per day in the next month, and there may be no increase in production in the next month.

It is still unclear what caused this change in tone, but before that, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) held a meeting to assess the market prospects, and it is expected that under its basic scenario forecast, the oil market will appear 140 next year. The surplus of 10,000 barrels per day is slightly lower than the previously predicted surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day.

Prior to the OPEC+ online meeting on October 4, negotiations between member states were still continuing, and there was no guarantee that they would agree to additional production. OPEC member states Iraq, Nigeria, and the UAE have stated in recent weeks that the organization does not believe it is necessary to take special measures to change the existing agreement.

Howie Lee, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, said: “Given that oil prices are so high, they are likely to further increase production. The last time we saw oil prices of US$80, there was much more supply than we are now. I think given that Global energy is tight, and the international market may now need more supply."

Energy Aspects, a consulting agency, expects OPEC+ to extend its decision to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from August to December. The agency's analyst Virendra Chauhan said that Brent crude oil needs to be maintained at more than $80 to prompt OPEC+ to make such a change.

ANZ Research analysts said in a report: "The OPEC+ meeting to be held next Monday will be critical to the direction of oil prices next week. If production increases by more than 400,000 barrels per day, it will ease the upward pressure on oil prices in the short term."

White House Press Secretary Psaki said that the US Biden administration has expressed concern about high oil prices, which was discussed when US National Security Adviser Sullivan met with Saudi Crown Prince Salman earlier this week.

As the global natural gas price soars, power producers have turned to using fuel oil or diesel to generate electricity, driving up oil prices. Power plants in Pakistan, Bangladesh and many countries in the Middle East have begun to replace fuel.

ING commodities analysts said in a report: "This shows that we should continue to witness strong oil demand in the next few months, which means that oil supply and demand will be tighter than expected before the end of the year."

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave starting from $61.74, and the recent resistance above it looks to the 23.6% target at $78.37. On the hourly chart, oil prices are in a downward (c) wave that started from 76.07 US dollars. The market outlook is expected to fall below the 61.8% target of 74.26 US dollars and drop to the 76.4% target of 73.83 US dollars. Wave (c) is a sub-wave of the downward ((iv)) wave that started from US$76.67, and wave ((iv)) is a sub-wave of three upward waves that started from US$67.58.

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