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On May 16, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 63.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 34.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.6%.On May 16, Macquarie Group expects OPEC+ to continue to increase production in July to punish those member countries that produce beyond their quotas and actively respond to US President Trumps call for lower oil prices. Macquarie energy strategist Vikas Dwivedi said that OPEC+ is expected to increase crude oil production by another 100,000-400,000 barrels per day in July, after the oil-producing alliance agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels in June, exceeding expectations and exacerbating market concerns about oversupply of crude oil this year. OPECs push for increased production is aimed at punishing "quota violators" such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPECs production increase may also prompt the US shale oil producing areas to slow down their expansion.The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has initiated a more enhanced and systematic review process for food chemicals in the marketplace.In late New York trading, spot gold hit $3,240 an ounce, up nearly 2% on the day.Agency data shows that since January, the number of full-time employees in the SECs offices responsible for legal affairs, investment management, and trading and markets has decreased by 15%-19%. The number of employees in the SECs Chicago and Denver offices has dropped by nearly 20%.

The international gold price is bearish and will not be short for the time being. After it falls below $1738, the short position will enter the market.

Oct 26, 2021 10:57

On Friday (October 1), the spot gold price was basically stable, not far from the one-week high of US$1,764.26 per ounce recorded on the previous trading day. Because of the unexpected increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced overnight, and some Fed officials said the need to maintain low interest rates.

At 15:15 GMT+8, spot gold fell 0.04% to 1756.25 US dollars per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.02% to 1756.7 US dollars per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 94.284.


On Thursday (September 30), the gold price rebounded sharply from the low point of $1,721.76 per ounce set on August 10 the previous day, and closed up nearly 1.8% in the final trading; because the U.S. dollar index fell back to a new high of 94.504 since September 28 , The final trade closed down more than 0.1%.

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said on Thursday (September 30) that he believes that the current supply shocks pushing up prices will be eased next year, and the United States still needs to maintain low interest rates in order to bring the inflation rate back to 2% for a long time.

Data released on Thursday showed that as of the week of September 25, the seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose to 362,000, higher than market expectations of 330,000 and higher than the previous value of 351,000. .

The U.S. Congress passed a provisional bill on Thursday to avoid a government shutdown, but as the House of Representatives prepares to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, President Biden’s agenda is facing another test.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans continue to quarrel over whether to grant the Treasury Department a debt authorization that exceeds the current legal debt ceiling of $28.4 trillion. Treasury Secretary Yellen estimated that if Congress does not take action, the United States may have an unprecedented debt default around October 18.

Standard & Poor's Global Ratings warned on Thursday that if the United States defaults on debt, it will have "serious and extraordinary" consequences for financial markets. However, the agency added that it is expected that the US Congress will eventually resolve the debt ceiling issue in time.

On the daily chart, the price of gold fell below the 38.2% target of the downward (3) wave that started from $1834 at $1744. The market outlook is expected to further drop to the 61.8% target at $1688. (3) Wave is a sub-wave of the downward ((Y)) wave that started from 1917 USD, and ((Y)) belongs to the adjusted IV wave that started from 2075 USD 5.

On the hourly chart, the price of gold is expected to start a five-wave downward trend from US$1,764. It is expected to fall below the 38.2% target of US$1748, and further drop to the 61.8% target of US$1738. Wave 5 is the sub-wave of (3) Wave.

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