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Futures July 9, Economies.com analysts latest view today: Brent crude oil futures prices rose slightly at its latest intraday level, supported by its continued trading above the EMA50 moving average and trading along the bias line under the dominance of the main bullish trend in the short term. On the other hand, we noticed the beginning of a negative overlap signal on the relative strength index (RSI), which occurred after the overbought level, slowing down the recent intraday gains.July 9th, the recent dot plot shows a clear divide within the Federal Reserve. Some policymakers expect two rate cuts this year, while others predict no rate cuts at all. Morgan Stanley analysts said they will look for clues to this divergence. More hawkish members may say they are waiting for unemployment to rise, or that they need more time to assess the impact of tariffs and other fiscal policies on inflation. Powell has said he expects the inflationary effects of tariffs to emerge this summer, and hinted that the only obstacle between the Fed and easing policy is the uncertainty of these price pressures. If the minutes show partial agreement with this view, it may mark the Feds shift to a more proactive stance.Malaysian Trade Minister: So far, the United States has not imposed an additional 10% tariff on countries allied with the BRICS.July 9, Citi analysts said that compared with Powells press conference after the June interest rate meeting, the minutes of the Federal Reserves June meeting may read more dovish. At that meeting, Powell was heavily inclined to use neutral language and emphasized the Feds dual mission. But the minutes of the meeting may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly say: the threshold for rate cuts is falling.Malaysian Trade Minister: We dont want to make a deal just for the sake of making a deal, it must be fair and comprehensive.

The international gold price is bearish and will not be short for the time being. After it falls below $1738, the short position will enter the market.

Oct 26, 2021 10:57

On Friday (October 1), the spot gold price was basically stable, not far from the one-week high of US$1,764.26 per ounce recorded on the previous trading day. Because of the unexpected increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced overnight, and some Fed officials said the need to maintain low interest rates.

At 15:15 GMT+8, spot gold fell 0.04% to 1756.25 US dollars per ounce; the main COMEX gold contract fell 0.02% to 1756.7 US dollars per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 94.284.


On Thursday (September 30), the gold price rebounded sharply from the low point of $1,721.76 per ounce set on August 10 the previous day, and closed up nearly 1.8% in the final trading; because the U.S. dollar index fell back to a new high of 94.504 since September 28 , The final trade closed down more than 0.1%.

Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said on Thursday (September 30) that he believes that the current supply shocks pushing up prices will be eased next year, and the United States still needs to maintain low interest rates in order to bring the inflation rate back to 2% for a long time.

Data released on Thursday showed that as of the week of September 25, the seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly rose to 362,000, higher than market expectations of 330,000 and higher than the previous value of 351,000. .

The U.S. Congress passed a provisional bill on Thursday to avoid a government shutdown, but as the House of Representatives prepares to vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, President Biden’s agenda is facing another test.

Congressional Democrats and Republicans continue to quarrel over whether to grant the Treasury Department a debt authorization that exceeds the current legal debt ceiling of $28.4 trillion. Treasury Secretary Yellen estimated that if Congress does not take action, the United States may have an unprecedented debt default around October 18.

Standard & Poor's Global Ratings warned on Thursday that if the United States defaults on debt, it will have "serious and extraordinary" consequences for financial markets. However, the agency added that it is expected that the US Congress will eventually resolve the debt ceiling issue in time.

On the daily chart, the price of gold fell below the 38.2% target of the downward (3) wave that started from $1834 at $1744. The market outlook is expected to further drop to the 61.8% target at $1688. (3) Wave is a sub-wave of the downward ((Y)) wave that started from 1917 USD, and ((Y)) belongs to the adjusted IV wave that started from 2075 USD 5.

On the hourly chart, the price of gold is expected to start a five-wave downward trend from US$1,764. It is expected to fall below the 38.2% target of US$1748, and further drop to the 61.8% target of US$1738. Wave 5 is the sub-wave of (3) Wave.

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