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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire and peace talks emerged, leading to a strengthening of precious metals overnight. London spot gold rose steadily, returning to $4,500/ounce in early trading on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.19%, and SHFE gold rose 0.37%. The US government is seeking a one-month ceasefire for negotiations. While proposing a ceasefire, it is also accelerating troop buildup. As of press time, Iran has not responded, but on the evening of the 24th, Irans Bushehr nuclear power plant was attacked again by the US and Israel. A key turning point in geopolitical events has emerged, causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices and a rebound in gold prices. However, uncertainty remains in the US-Iran negotiations, leading to increased volatility in gold prices during the day. 2. The market continues to focus on the US-Iran conflict. The US president stated that US-Iran negotiations "may be quite close to reaching an agreement," and Iran agreed never to possess nuclear weapons. Reports indicate that the US intends to implement a one-month ceasefire and has proposed a 15-point peace plan. The expectation of a de-escalation in US-Iran relations has been a major factor in the recent market sentiment recovery, highlighting the markets sensitivity to geopolitical situations. However, the future of US-Iran negotiations and conflict remains uncertain, meaning gold prices may remain highly volatile. Conservative investors may continue to observe, while aggressive investors are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, especially after the rapid release of short-selling sentiment, which presents better buying opportunities. Silver, platinum, and palladium are currently fluctuating in tandem with gold, increasing the difficulty of trading. Gold plays a significant role as a "ballast" among precious metals; attention should be paid to when gold prices return to an upward trend, and investors should wait for the right opportunity to act.The White House announced that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) review board will continue operating for another 10 days, or until May 29, 2026, whichever is earlier, after submitting the required report to the President.A White House executive order extends the operating period of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) review board.SK Hynix: HBMs total shipments will remain stable this year.On March 25th, Moodys analyst Sunny Nguyen stated that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may have "not many reasons" to ease its hawkish monetary policy stance. She pointed out that Australias non-tradable inflation rate remains around 5%, rents have risen slightly, and the oil shock triggered by the Middle East conflict has not yet affected Marchs inflation data. Furthermore, she noted that the Australian Bureau of Statistics unusually explicitly stated that fuel prices had already fallen "before the Middle East conflict." "This wording is deliberate," Nguyen said. "The situation in March will be very different." She indicated that Australias overall inflation rate could surge to around 4.5%.

In anticipation of UK Retail Sales, the British Pound falls to a new monthly low near 1.1900

Daniel Rogers

Aug 19, 2022 12:01

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On Friday's Asian session, the pound to dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) accepted offers to reaffirm its monthly bottom at 1.1905, falling for a third consecutive day on concerns about the UK economy, aggressive Fedspeak, and upbeat US data.

 

Bloomberg reports that Indonesian President Joko Widodo has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Group of 20 Summit in Bali later this year. Recent market movement in favor of the US dollar may have this explanation. This was the first time the leader of the world's fourth-most populous nation had announced that both of them will be attending the November conference, according to the news.

 

August's record low for the GfK Consumer Sentiment Index in the United Kingdom was even lower than July's record low of -41. Following the release of the data, Reuters said, "British consumers are experiencing a'sense of aggravation' about the growing cost of living, according to the country's longest-running research of household finances.

 

British employment and inflation figures were reported earlier in the week, but this did not help the GBP/USD as the strong US economy and aggressive Fed talk encouraged pair bears.

 

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 250K from 265K market consensus and 254K correction, whilst the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August rose to 6.2 from -5 expected and -12.3 before.

 

The Fed will keep raising interest rates to "right-size" the economy, according to Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The policymaker indicated that a move of 50 basis points or 75 basis points would be acceptable for the September rate decision. But Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve reportedly does not think a recession is happening in the country at the moment. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and self-proclaimed "lifelong hawk" James Bullard is considering a further rate hike of 75 basis points in September. According to Reuters, investors expect a hike to a range of 3.50–3.75 percent by March of next year, based on trade in futures contracts related to the Fed's policy rate. As a result, the Federal Reserve target rate is between 2.25 and 2.50 percent as of right now.

 

Finally, Wall Street ended with a lackluster performance, putting pressure on S&P 500 Futures, while US 10-year Treasury rates rebounded from their previous day's drop from the monthly high to 2.891% as of press time.

 

For new guidance, GBP/USD traders will focus on August UK Retail Sales, which are predicted to be -3.3% YoY compared to -5.8% in July.