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Samsung Electronics: System LSI business revenue hit a record high in the first half of the year.Samsung Electronics: Profits are expected to continue to grow in the second half of the year.On July 30th, Huatai Macro Research Report stated that the FOMCs decision to hold rates steady in July somewhat eroded the Feds credibility, leading to rising inflation expectations and higher long-term interest rates. We believe the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains high. The unexpectedly hawkish FOMC meeting in June resulted in tighter financial conditions, lower inflation expectations, and increased Fed credibility. However, with energy prices rising again, the market may have begun pricing in Warshs claim of zero tolerance for inflation as mere rhetoric. The subsequent rise in inflation expectations and long-term yields suggests that the Feds credibility may have been somewhat eroded. We reiterate our baseline forecast of a high probability of a September rate hike, 1-2 rate hikes this year, and 2 rate hikes before mid-next year. The risks remain: ① Warsh may have been merely bluffing; ② The AI boom may abruptly end, leading to tighter financial conditions and making a rate hike unnecessary. Pay attention to the July-August employment/inflation data and Warshs Jackson Hole speech on August 27th.Samsung Electronics reported a net profit of 71.3 trillion won for the second quarter, compared to market expectations of 68.5 trillion won. The chip divisions operating profit for the second quarter was 89.2 trillion won.On July 30th, according to foreign media reports, international oil prices rose nearly 7% on Wednesday. As large-scale airstrikes reignited in the Middle East, market hopes for an impending end to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran were dashed; meanwhile, US government data showed domestic crude oil inventories had fallen to multi-year lows, exacerbating concerns about supply reductions. UBS analyst Giovanni Staúnovo stated that the renewed military strikes in the Middle East and Iranian officials reiterating their intention to control shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz (despite a significant reduction in oil flow through the strait) further pushed up oil prices. On Wednesday, the US and Saudi Arabia launched strikes against Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, accusing them of drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Hours earlier, the US military announced it had successfully thwarted an Iranian raid targeting US forces in the region. Iran, in turn, stated it fired on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US bases in Jordan.

Hang Seng Index, ASX200, Nikkei 225: Hang Seng Leads a Mixed Session

Steven Zhao

Feb 20, 2023 16:10

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Market Overview

It was a mixed morning session. There were no US economic indicators from Friday to influence investor sentiment this morning. It was also a quiet session on the Asian economic calendar, with no material economic indicators for Investors to consider. Nonetheless, the Hang Seng Index was on the move.


The lack of stats left the markets in limbo. It is another busy week ahead for the global financial markets, with US stats likely to influence sentiment toward Fed monetary policy.


From Asia, the RBA could weigh on the ASX 200 again tomorrow, with the RBA meeting minutes out. Prelim private sector PMIs for February and inflation numbers from the major economies will also influence market risk sentiment.


However, the general theme remains a hawkish Fed that may be intent on hiking rates until cracks in the US economy begin to reappear.


In contrast, PBoC did provide Hang Seng Index support this morning by holding the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates steady at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 was flat. A bearish end to the week for the Dow Jones left the ASX 200 on the back foot this morning ahead of the RBA meeting minutes.


This morning, bank stocks had a bullish session. Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) and National Australia Bank (NAB) led the way, with gains of 1.10% and 1.21%, respectively. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and ANZ Group (ANZ) also found support, rising by 0.89% and 0.718%, respectively.


Mining stocks also had a bullish session. Rio Tinto (RIO) and BHP Group Ltd (BHP) were up by 0.12% and 0.87%, respectively, with Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) rising by 0.99%. Newcrest Mining (NCM) was up by 0.68%.


However, Woodside Energy Group (WDS) and Santos Ltd (STO) were down by 0.29% and 0.73%, respectively. A pullback in crude oil prices to sub-$77 weighed on the oil stocks this morning, despite WTI rising by 0.26% to $76.60.


On the earnings front, The a2 Milk Company Ltd (A2M) slid by 8.17% despite operating profits beating expectations. An uncertain outlook weighed, with the company stating,


“The business outlook is encouraging, but there’s still some noise around COVID-19, deferred medical treatment, and claims exposure. Our current provisioning is prudent, but it’s going to take a bit more time for this to settle.”

Hang Seng Index

The Hang Seng was up 0.41% this morning. The PBoC decision to hold Loan Prime Rates unchanged delivered support. However, geopolitical tensions continued to cap the upside ahead of the key economic indicators from the US this week.


According to Reuters, the White House has planned new sanctions on Russia while also warning Beijing of the consequences of supporting Moscow. Geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing remain an area of concern.


Tencent Holdings Ltd (HK:0700) was down 0.11%, with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (HK:9988) falling 0.30%


However, bank stocks found support. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (HK:1398) and China Construction Bank (HK: 0939) rose by 0.50% and 0.81%, respectively, with HSBC Holdings PLC up by 0.44%.


CNOOC (HK: 0883) also found morning support off the back of a pickup in crude oil prices, rising by 1.06%.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 was flat this morning, despite a stronger USD/JPY at 134.355.


Tokyo Electron Ltd (8035) fell by 1.80%, with SoftBank Group Corp. (9984) and Fast Retailing Co (9983) seeing losses of 0.82% and 0.34%, respectively. Sony Corp (6758) also struggled, falling by 0.52%.

However, KDDI Corp (9433) rose by 1.10%.


With the Fed and Bank of Japan in focus this week and rising geopolitical risk, investors took a more cautious position today.