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On May 27, it was reported that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone on May 26 local time. An informed source stated that the two sides discussed the situation amidst regional tensions and as US-Iran diplomatic negotiations entered a crucial phase.On May 27th, according to Nikkei, Federal Reserve Chairman Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed may take a "series" of interest rate hikes to address inflation caused by the Middle East situation. During the FOMC meeting in late April, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Kashkari and two other officials objected to the Feds decision to include language in its statement hinting at future monetary easing. In a written interview, Kashkari stated, "I think the next rate adjustment could be a rate cut, or it could be a rate hike," expressing his differing opinion. Kashkari said the outcome depends on the trend of inflation, which in turn depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon or remains effectively closed due to further damage to the regions infrastructure, the latter exacerbating the global energy shortage. Kashkari expressed concern that long-term inflation expectations for businesses and households "could get out of control." He stated that the FOMC "will likely need to take strong measures," and that rate hikes, or even a series of rate hikes, may be necessary.Federal Reserves Kashkari: A protracted war with Iran could trigger a "series" of interest rate hikes in the United States.May 27th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract fell 1.15% to 988 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract fell 1.38% to 18,601 yuan/kilogram, and the SC Crude Oil futures contract rose 0.81% to 610 yuan/barrel.Micron Technology (MU.O) surged over 20%, marking its biggest single-day gain since 2011.

Gold price forecast: US NFP, clear break above $1,717

Daniel Rogers

Sep 02, 2022 14:42

截屏2022-08-31 下午2.37.05_1024x576.png 

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) approaches $1,700 in Friday's Asian session, indicating a corrective pullback from the yearly low. Traders anticipate August's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate to determine gold's recovery.

 

XAU/USD pares recent losses at $1,698 and bounces off the lowest levels since July 21. Recent gains look to be pre-NFP market consolidation.

 

Hawkish Fedspeak and higher US data have weighed on XAU/USD values recently.

 

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August was 52.8, compared to 52.0 expected. S&P Manufacturing PMI for August rose from 51.3 to 51.5, compared to 52.2 in July. US Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 232K from 248K and 237K. Unit Labor Cost grew 10.2% QoQ in Q2 versus 10.7% expected, while Labor Productivity fell 4.1% versus 4.5% expected and -4.6% before.

 

A covid-led lockdown in Chengdu, China, and a dismal Caixin Manufacturing PMI provide a bleak picture for the world's second-largest economy. Escalating geopolitical tension between Beijing and Washington via Taiwan might be similar.

 

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation is 'far' from 2%. New Dallas Fed President Lory Logan said, "Restoring price stability is No. 1"

 

Wall Street closed neutral, but 10-year Treasury rates hit a high since late June. The 02-year rose to the 15-year top. CME's FedWatch Tool indicates 72% possibility of a rate hike in September, up from 69% earlier.

 

US Treasury rates and the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from multi-year highs by press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for August are significant for gold dealers.