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The Ukrainian military says it attacked an oil refinery in Russia’s Saratov region last night.On March 21, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, met with executives from renowned multinational corporations including HSBC, UBS, Louis Dreyfus, Siemens Healthineers, Schneider Electric, Rio Tinto, Prudential, Investor Services, Standard Chartered, Syzygium, and T.C. Pharmaceutical Industries at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. He Lifeng stated that Chinas economy is currently progressing steadily and towards new and better development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will unswervingly expand high-level opening-up and promote high-quality development, which will create broader market opportunities for multinational corporations. He welcomed multinational corporations to increase their investment in China and continuously deepen mutually beneficial cooperation.On March 21, a spokesperson for the Hatem Anbia Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that the United States and Israel are now targeting private vessels and passenger transport in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian Armed Forces warned the US and Israel that if such actions occur again, Iran will take strong and reciprocal retaliatory action.On March 21, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that at 3:45 a.m. that day, Irans new air defense system struck down Israels third F-16 fighter jet in central Iran. It is claimed that in the first three weeks of the conflict, Iran successfully intercepted and destroyed more than 200 aircraft, including drones, cruise missiles, refueling aircraft, and top-tier fighter jets.On March 21st, HSBC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, hinting at a "wait-and-see" approach. Persistent inflation and rising geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for the Fed. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Inflation risks have increased, particularly due to soaring energy prices, while labor market risks have slightly decreased. Energy price volatility and geopolitical risks should continue to support safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar.

Gold price forecast: US NFP, clear break above $1,717

Daniel Rogers

Sep 02, 2022 14:42

截屏2022-08-31 下午2.37.05_1024x576.png 

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) approaches $1,700 in Friday's Asian session, indicating a corrective pullback from the yearly low. Traders anticipate August's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate to determine gold's recovery.

 

XAU/USD pares recent losses at $1,698 and bounces off the lowest levels since July 21. Recent gains look to be pre-NFP market consolidation.

 

Hawkish Fedspeak and higher US data have weighed on XAU/USD values recently.

 

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August was 52.8, compared to 52.0 expected. S&P Manufacturing PMI for August rose from 51.3 to 51.5, compared to 52.2 in July. US Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 232K from 248K and 237K. Unit Labor Cost grew 10.2% QoQ in Q2 versus 10.7% expected, while Labor Productivity fell 4.1% versus 4.5% expected and -4.6% before.

 

A covid-led lockdown in Chengdu, China, and a dismal Caixin Manufacturing PMI provide a bleak picture for the world's second-largest economy. Escalating geopolitical tension between Beijing and Washington via Taiwan might be similar.

 

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation is 'far' from 2%. New Dallas Fed President Lory Logan said, "Restoring price stability is No. 1"

 

Wall Street closed neutral, but 10-year Treasury rates hit a high since late June. The 02-year rose to the 15-year top. CME's FedWatch Tool indicates 72% possibility of a rate hike in September, up from 69% earlier.

 

US Treasury rates and the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell from multi-year highs by press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate for August are significant for gold dealers.