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Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD edges lower on a stronger USD and Fed rate rise worries

Alina Haynes

Sep 05, 2022 16:23

截屏2022-06-07 下午5.15.32.png 

 

Gold dips lower on the first trading day of the week, erasing a portion of Friday's substantial gains. The XAU/USD is on the defensive during the early European session, but lacks follow-through selling and has thus far managed to maintain its position above the $1,700 round-figure level.

 

On Monday, the US dollar reaches a fresh 20-year high, which turns out to be a significant factor imposing downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. Despite Friday's delivery of a mixed US employment data, a growing consensus that the Fed will adhere to its aggressive policy tightening course continues to support the dollar. In fact, the markets are putting in a larger likelihood of a 75-bps rate hike at the September 20-21 FOMC meeting.

 

Recent hawkish remarks by various Fed members reiterated the bets, signaling that interest rates are likely to continue climbing until inflation is much closer to the 2% target. In addition, it is anticipated that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England would continue to hike interest rates. This is regarded as an additional component that contributes to the diversion of gold flows away from non-yielding gold.

 

In addition, indications of equities market stability appear to diminish demand for traditional safe-haven gold. However, mounting concerns about a more severe economic crisis should temper any euphoria. This, coupled with relatively low trading volumes due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States, may discourage dealers from taking aggressive wagers on gold. This necessitates vigilance prior to positioning for additional losses.


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