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On January 12th, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the threat of criminal prosecution against the Federal Reserve Chairman will exacerbate market concerns about the central banks independence, but he expects the Fed to continue making policy decisions based on economic data. Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Global Strategy Conference in 2026, Hatzius said, "Clearly, concerns about a potential blow to the Feds independence are increasing, and the latest news regarding the criminal investigation of Chairman Powell has further reinforced these concerns." He added, "I have no doubt that Powell will continue to make decisions based on economic data for the remainder of his term, and will not be swayed in any direction by pressure—whether its raising or lowering interest rates, it will follow data guidance."On January 12th, ABN Amro economist Roger Quedflich stated in a report that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could jeopardize the Feds prospects for interest rate cuts in the near term. He pointed out that the challenge to the Feds independence could prompt Fed governors to take a hardline stance, delaying rate cut decisions to "defend the Fed." The investigation concerns cost overruns in a Fed headquarters renovation project, which Quedflich believes is seen as a means to pressure the Fed chairman and force his resignation, thereby expanding government influence. He stated, "If the situation continues to escalate, rate cuts may be postponed."On January 12th, ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole stated in a report that the dollar faces a significant risk of decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Fed had received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice for overspending on its headquarters renovations. He pointed out that this move has reignited market concerns about the Feds independence and could trigger another "sell-America" trade. Pesole stated, "Any further signs of interference in the Feds independence will pose a considerable downside risk to the dollar."ECB Governing Council member Mueller: There is no reason for further interest rate cuts in the short term.ECB Governing Council member Mueller: ECB interest rates have been at a reasonable level for some time.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD edges lower on a stronger USD and Fed rate rise worries

Alina Haynes

Sep 05, 2022 16:23

截屏2022-06-07 下午5.15.32.png 

 

Gold dips lower on the first trading day of the week, erasing a portion of Friday's substantial gains. The XAU/USD is on the defensive during the early European session, but lacks follow-through selling and has thus far managed to maintain its position above the $1,700 round-figure level.

 

On Monday, the US dollar reaches a fresh 20-year high, which turns out to be a significant factor imposing downward pressure on dollar-denominated gold. Despite Friday's delivery of a mixed US employment data, a growing consensus that the Fed will adhere to its aggressive policy tightening course continues to support the dollar. In fact, the markets are putting in a larger likelihood of a 75-bps rate hike at the September 20-21 FOMC meeting.

 

Recent hawkish remarks by various Fed members reiterated the bets, signaling that interest rates are likely to continue climbing until inflation is much closer to the 2% target. In addition, it is anticipated that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England would continue to hike interest rates. This is regarded as an additional component that contributes to the diversion of gold flows away from non-yielding gold.

 

In addition, indications of equities market stability appear to diminish demand for traditional safe-haven gold. However, mounting concerns about a more severe economic crisis should temper any euphoria. This, coupled with relatively low trading volumes due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States, may discourage dealers from taking aggressive wagers on gold. This necessitates vigilance prior to positioning for additional losses.


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