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On January 31st, a research report from CITIC Securities pointed out that the Trump administrations domestic and foreign policies are expected to profoundly impact global markets this year. CITIC Securities believes that one of the Trump administrations core objectives is to push down long-term interest rates through personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and a series of initiatives to boost the traditional economy and support the midterm elections. Success would be beneficial for global stock markets and commodities. However, its foreign policy focuses on domestic affairs and voter demands, and may only have a short-term impact on major asset classes. The extent of the fiscal deficit expansion remains uncertain, which is beneficial for gold and non-ferrous metals. The midterm election results are crucial; although Trump has tried his best to gain an advantage, a Republican defeat would be a short-term negative for risk assets other than US Treasuries.On January 31, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) held a video conference on January 30 to deploy the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush work. The meeting focused on studying and implementing the important instructions and directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping on Spring Festival travel rush and work safety, and mobilized and deployed the 2026 civil aviation Spring Festival travel rush work. CAAC Deputy Director Ma Bing attended the meeting and delivered a speech. The meeting emphasized the need to solidify work responsibilities and go all out to ensure the success of all aspects of the Spring Festival travel rush work. It stressed implementing all safety requirements for the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, as well as winter operations, focusing on key safety aspects, strengthening the investigation and rectification of hidden dangers and supervision and inspection, and ensuring aviation safety; providing special Spring Festival services, strengthening support for key groups, handling irregular flights properly, standardizing market prices, and optimizing the passenger travel experience; strengthening market dynamic monitoring and optimizing Spring Festival flight arrangements; ensuring sufficient and capable on-duty personnel, properly handling emergencies, and providing care and support for frontline staff.U.S. Border Affairs Director Homan: My message is consistent with the position that has been in place since President Trump took office on January 20: we will conduct large-scale deportations, but will prioritize arresting criminals and those who threaten public safety.On January 31, it was reported that on January 30 local time, the Director of the White House Office of Management and Budget issued a memo to department heads instructing agencies whose funding was due at midnight to begin preparing for a government shutdown. These agencies included the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, State Department, Treasury Department, Department of Labor, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Education, Department of Transportation, and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Russ Vought stated, “Given that Congress is clearly unable to complete its work before the funding expires, affected agencies should now implement orderly shutdown plans. Employees should report to work on time, fulfill their next regular work duties, and conduct orderly shutdown activities. The government will continue to work with Congress to address recently raised issues and complete the funding work for fiscal year 2026. We hope this shutdown will not be too long.”January 31 – According to a report in the New York Times, documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice on Friday show that billionaire businessman Howard Lutnick, who served as Commerce Secretary in the Trump administration, planned to visit Jeffrey Epsteins private island. This planned visit took place in 2012 – a time when Lutnick had previously claimed to have severed ties with Epstein. Records show that in December 2012, Lutnick emailed Epstein to inquire about his location, stating that he, his family, and another family were in the Caribbean and asking if he could join them for a meal. Epstein replied through an assistant with his location on Little St. James Island, near the coast of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the two sides finalized the arrangements for a luncheon. The documents confirm that the visit did take place: the meeting was scheduled for December 23, 2012, and the following day, Epsteins assistant forwarded Lutnick a message from Epstein that read, "Its a pleasure to see you." In recent years, the visits of prominent figures closely associated with Epstein to the island have been subject to public scrutiny, but Lutnicks planned itinerary for this trip had not been disclosed before.

Gold Remains Below $1,650, and Copper Awaits Important Production Reports

Skylar Williams

Oct 17, 2022 14:34

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On Monday, gold prices inched up, but stayed below important support levels as markets anticipated future Federal Reserve rate hikes. In the meantime, copper markets awaited quarterly output figures from several of the world's largest miners, scheduled for release later this week.


The price of gold saw its worst week in two months with the release of statistics indicating that it will likely take considerably longer than anticipated for U.S. inflation to decrease. The reading heightened anticipation for additional anti-inflationary rate hikes at the Federal Reserve's November meeting.


The market has priced in a nearly 100 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive month in November. The increase will place U.S. interest rates at almost 4 percent, their highest level since late 2007.


Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,646.02 per ounce at 19:25 E.T., while gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,651.35 per ounce (23:25 GMT). In the preceding week, both assets declined by more than 3 percent.


The yellow metal remained under pressure from the dollar's strength, which last month approached a 20-year high. Additionally, Treasury yields reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.


Rising interest rates have depressed gold prices and boosted the dollar this year, as the prospective cost of holding gold has climbed in step with lending rates. The trend has also significantly weakened gold's attraction as a safe haven, notwithstanding the deteriorating global economic situation.


Copper prices rose among industrial metals on Monday, but remained near two-year lows as the global economy stalled.


Copper futures per pound gained by 0.5% to $3.4220. The price of the red metal jumped by 1% last week, supported by a falling dollar and signs of a tightening supply due to Russia-related sanctions.


In the next months, however, the metal and the majority of its industrial counterparts may encounter formidable obstacles. During Sunday's 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping signaled that China, the world's top importer of metals, had no plans to pull back its economically damaging zero-COVID policy.


This year, the policy stalled economic activity in the world's second-largest economy, significantly reducing its appetite for imports of commodities.


This week, BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) will announce production figures for the third quarter, which will shed light on the copper supply side. In light of the fact that U.S. sanctions have blocked the exports of a number of Russian producers, a potential supply constraint could result in a price increase.


Rio Tinto's production figures will be released on Tuesday, while BHP's are expected on Wednesday.