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On May 21st, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, stated that the UK economy is facing a "perfect storm" as escalating political uncertainty further amplifies the impact of the Middle East wars. Businesses reported declining output, soaring inflation, supply shortages, and frequent layoffs in May. Mays PMI data indicated that the countrys economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, a stark contrast to the strong growth earlier this year. While the primary responsibility lies with the Middle East wars, businesses also pointed to escalating domestic political problems, leading to increased uncertainty and consequently suppressing consumption, hiring, and investment. The situation could worsen in the coming months, as some support for manufacturing has been seen from precautionary stockpiling, but this support will inevitably weaken once warehouses are full. Meanwhile, prices are soaring as these costs are passed on to consumers, foreshadowing a significant rise in inflation in the coming months. This situation of weak economic growth and persistently rising price pressures puts the Bank of England in an extremely difficult dilemma: on the one hand, they urgently need to raise interest rates to curb inflation; but on the other hand, doing so would increase the risk of a recession.On May 21st, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported the following warehouse receipts and changes: 1. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 2. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts: 140,900 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day; 3. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 109,498 tons, an increase of 1,075 tons from the previous trading day; 4. Alumina futures warehouse receipts: 477,553 tons, a decrease of 4,813 tons from the previous trading day; 5. Nickel futures warehouse receipts: 79,737 tons, an increase of 470 tons from the previous trading day; 6. Gold futures warehouse receipts: 111,669 kg, an increase of 1,020 kg from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt plant warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 31,220 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Petroleum asphalt warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 21,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Copper futures warehouse receipts were 99,866 tons, a decrease of 1,148 tons from the previous trading day; 10. Lead futures warehouse receipts were 64,345 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous trading day; 11. Silver futures warehouse receipts were 989,688 kg, a decrease of 5,039 kg from the previous trading day; 12. Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts were 0 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons from the previous trading day; 13. TSR20 rubber futures warehouse receipts were 34,070 tons, a decrease of 1,311 tons from the previous trading day; 14. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 481,603 tons, an increase of 838 tons from the previous trading day; 15. Hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts were 577,327 tons, a decrease of 20,215 tons from the previous trading day; 16. Butadiene rubber futures warehouse receipts were 32,520 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous trading day; 17. 18. Pulp warehouse futures receipts: 201,824 tons, up 2,980 tons from the previous trading day; 19. Pulp mill warehouse futures receipts: 20,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Tin futures receipts: 8,341 tons, down 120 tons from the previous trading day; 20. Stainless steel warehouse futures receipts: 72,444 tons, down 184 tons from the previous trading day; 21. Fuel oil futures receipts: 47,160 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 22. Rebar warehouse futures receipts: 17,223 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 23. International copper futures receipts: 13,174 tons, down 349 tons from the previous trading day.The UK Office for National Statistics reports that net long-term migration to the UK will be 171,000 in 2025, compared to 331,000 the previous year.The onshore yuan closed at 6.7960 against the US dollar at 16:30 on May 21, up 100 points from the previous trading day.The UKs May composite PMI preliminary reading was 48.5, below the expected 51.6 and the previous reading of 52.6.

Gold Remains Below $1,650, and Copper Awaits Important Production Reports

Skylar Williams

Oct 17, 2022 14:34

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On Monday, gold prices inched up, but stayed below important support levels as markets anticipated future Federal Reserve rate hikes. In the meantime, copper markets awaited quarterly output figures from several of the world's largest miners, scheduled for release later this week.


The price of gold saw its worst week in two months with the release of statistics indicating that it will likely take considerably longer than anticipated for U.S. inflation to decrease. The reading heightened anticipation for additional anti-inflationary rate hikes at the Federal Reserve's November meeting.


The market has priced in a nearly 100 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive month in November. The increase will place U.S. interest rates at almost 4 percent, their highest level since late 2007.


Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,646.02 per ounce at 19:25 E.T., while gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,651.35 per ounce (23:25 GMT). In the preceding week, both assets declined by more than 3 percent.


The yellow metal remained under pressure from the dollar's strength, which last month approached a 20-year high. Additionally, Treasury yields reached their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis.


Rising interest rates have depressed gold prices and boosted the dollar this year, as the prospective cost of holding gold has climbed in step with lending rates. The trend has also significantly weakened gold's attraction as a safe haven, notwithstanding the deteriorating global economic situation.


Copper prices rose among industrial metals on Monday, but remained near two-year lows as the global economy stalled.


Copper futures per pound gained by 0.5% to $3.4220. The price of the red metal jumped by 1% last week, supported by a falling dollar and signs of a tightening supply due to Russia-related sanctions.


In the next months, however, the metal and the majority of its industrial counterparts may encounter formidable obstacles. During Sunday's 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping signaled that China, the world's top importer of metals, had no plans to pull back its economically damaging zero-COVID policy.


This year, the policy stalled economic activity in the world's second-largest economy, significantly reducing its appetite for imports of commodities.


This week, BHP Group (NYSE:BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) will announce production figures for the third quarter, which will shed light on the copper supply side. In light of the fact that U.S. sanctions have blocked the exports of a number of Russian producers, a potential supply constraint could result in a price increase.


Rio Tinto's production figures will be released on Tuesday, while BHP's are expected on Wednesday.