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March 6 news, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, returning to the moderate level at the beginning of the year. As of the week of March 1, the number of initial unemployment claims fell by 21,000 to 221,000, lower than the expected 233,000. The number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits rose to 1.9 million last week. This figure is close to the three-year high set in January this year, indicating that the unemployed are having more difficulties finding new jobs. Economists are closely watching the number of people applying for unemployment benefits each week for signs of a deterioration in the job market. The Trump administration is currently taking actions to reduce the size of the federal government, and concerns about the impact of tariffs are also affecting corporate decisions.March 6, MHA economic adviser Joe Nellis said that the European Central Bank seems to be very concerned about the risks to economic growth and will further cut interest rates. On Thursday, as widely expected by the market, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%. However, Nellis said that the future policy path remains uncertain as the ECB has to balance the continued risk of inflation and the troubled economy. Economic growth is likely to remain the focus, and the upcoming import tariffs in the United States have exacerbated the weakness of the eurozone economy. The European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates this year as concerns about inflation shift to the need for economic stimulus.A draft document shows that the European Council asks the Commission, Slovakia and Ukraine to step up efforts to find viable solutions to transit issues, including restoring transport.On March 6, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at its March meeting. Gone is the description of the policy "still restrictive" in the statement, replaced by a softening of the wording to "substantially less restrictive". This suggests that either the ECB will pause rate cuts or that interest rates are already approaching the point where the ECB pauses. There is no new information in terms of forward guidance, as the statement retains both the data-dependent statement and the statement that decisions will be made meeting by meeting. There is no mention of fiscal policy in the statement, but there is no doubt that ECB President Lagarde will be asked about it. Market expectations for a pause in rate cuts and a 25 basis point cut at the April meeting remain "half and half".The U.S. crude oil import price was $67.66 per barrel in January and $66.16 per barrel in December, up 2.2% from $66.18 per barrel in January 2024.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD stabilizes solidly above $1,750 as DXY retreats in front of Jackson Hole

Daniel Rogers

Aug 25, 2022 14:45

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During the Asian trading session, the gold price (XAU/USD) reached a fresh four-day high of $1,756.77. Prior to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing a self-off, which is favorable for the precious metal. The DXY has showed a gloomy initial trading session and has fallen to approach Tuesday's low of 108.36.

 

The foreign exchange (FX) market is anticipated to continue volatile as investors receive contradictory comments from analysts regarding Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Undoubtedly, the data indicate that price pressures are close to peak, and the loss in private sector activity causes the Fed to decrease the rate at which it is increasing interest rates.

 

However, the inflation rate is above 8%, and the Fed's onerous task of raising interest rates will continue for some time.

 

In addition, investors will focus on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for the second quarter, which is anticipated to remain unchanged at 4.4%.

 

On an hourly scale, gold prices are seeking to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1,758.40 (set from Monday's low of $1,727.87 to August 10's high of $1,807.93). At $1,756.20, the precious gold has pierced the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In addition, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1,748.46 is rising, adding to the upward filters. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (14) has moved into the bullish zone of 60.00-80.00, indicating further gain.