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1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,033,142 lots, a decrease of 79,938 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,091,639 lots, an increase of 11,778 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 250,347 lots, a decrease of 2,621 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 239,842 lots, a decrease of 23,281 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 742,856 lots, a decrease of 1,166,358 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,655,969 lots, a decrease of 54,203 lots from the previous trading day.February 4th - Amundi Wealth Management stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on Thursday, but lower-than-expected inflation could lead to a rate cut later this year. The company noted, "The risk of lower-than-expected inflation at the start of the year reinforces our view that the ECB may cut rates again to 1.75% later this year." According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the money market has not yet priced in any ECB rate cut expectations this year. Currently, the ECBs deposit facility rate is 2.00%.On February 4th, Norwegian energy giant Aquino reported a 32% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter profits due to falling oil prices. As the first major European energy company to release its quarterly earnings report, Aquinos results may set the tone for the upcoming earnings season. Previously, crude oil prices declined amid ample supply. The companys adjusted operating profit after tax shrank to $1.55 billion from $2.29 billion in the same period last year, below the average analyst expectation of $1.59 billion. The company announced a share buyback program of up to $1.5 billion in 2026. Last year, crude oil prices experienced their largest annual drop since 2020, and a large-scale oversupply is expected to continue to weigh on prices in 2026. European natural gas prices also fell sharply last year due to a surge in seaborne supply. Within Aquino, increased production mitigated the impact of falling prices, with both its Norwegian and overseas oil fields increasing output.Japans Ministry of Finance: An agreement has been reached in principle with the Philippines on a new tax treaty.The yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 3.940%.

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bulls assault $1,750 as market participants prepare for Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 25, 2022 14:50

 截屏2022-08-24 下午3.50.19_1024x576.png

 

After a two-day rally, the gold price (XAU/USD) remains on the defensive at $1,752 during Thursday's Asian session. In doing so, gold reflects the market's nervousness in advance of significant data/events and in response to the mixed results of recently revealed information.

 

In spite of this, US Durable Goods Orders for July fell to 0.0%, compared to 0.6% projected and a revised up 2.2% prior estimate. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft, however, surpassed the 0.3% market consensus to reach 0.4%, up from 0.9% previously. Additionally, Pending Home Sales improved to -1.0% MoM in July, compared to -4.0% projected and -8.9% previously (revised down from -8.9%). Annually, Pending Home Sales declined by 19.9%, compared to the previous annual decline of 20%.

 

On the other hand, economic fears support the US dollar's safe-haven demand, as S&P Global Market Intelligence's Executive Director of Economic Research, Sara Johnson, said in a statement on Wednesday that global growth is expected to remain subdued in late 2022 and 2023, while inflation is anticipated to moderate over the next two years.

 

However, predictions that China will overcome its recessionary troubles and that Fed Chairman Powell will reiterate his cautious words at Jackson Hole appeared to have weighed on the DXY bulls. "Various Chinese official media organizations are defending the yuan following its recent fall, arguing that the country's robust exports could offset a stronger dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve rate hikes," Reuters reported on Wednesday. Due to China's role as one of the world's major gold consumers, gold traders are increasingly concerned about the dragon nation.

 

XAU/USD may experience a pullback if Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprises markets with a hawkish tone amid recession fears, given the current mixed market conditions and the US dollar's reluctance to re-establish its multi-year high.

 

The second edition of the US GDP for the second quarter will be added to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for the same period to beautify the calendar intraday. However, Jackson Hole will receive the most of the focus for new initiatives.

 

Despite recent inactivity, the gold price maintains the rebound above the prior resistance line from mid-April, suggesting more higher momentum towards a 10-week-old resistance line near $1,788.


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