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September 11th - Bank of America points out that investors who have heavily bought European and UK government bonds in recent months may be regretting their decisions following a sharp sell-off in the bond market. A survey by the bank shows that although respondents have become more pessimistic about the interest rate outlook, they have increased their holdings of long-duration bonds and maintained these positions since early August. Bond yields have risen sharply as soaring energy prices have exacerbated inflation concerns; this trend has been further amplified by a sell-off in other global bond markets. Strategists, including Ralf Preusser, wrote in a report released Friday: "The divergence between duration exposure to euro and sterling bonds and investor sentiment has reached a record high. Buyers regret is palpable. This helps explain the extent of the sell-off in UK and German government bonds this week as markets repriced expectations of central bank policy, especially given that most investors still believe the ECB will have to reverse policy next year."On September 11th, Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo stated, "Todays CPI was largely in line with expectations, ostensibly the result investors hoped for, but it does significantly increase the suspense surrounding next weeks interest rate decision. The challenge is that the data doesnt fully reflect some of the recent inflationary pressures, and theres little evidence that inflation is returning to target in the near term. This reports survey period predates the latest round of energy price increases and the spread of commodity gains from energy to sectors like metals and agriculture. Todays inflation data doesnt eliminate the possibility of stronger price pressures in the future. In short, todays in-line data will allow the Fed to retain the option of raising rates, but wont force it to act. Therefore, the market may focus more on Warshs communications, energy prices, labor market data, and what happens next, rather than what was released today."German Chancellor Merz has decided to remain in power and plans to continue pushing forward with reforms in Germany.The Houthi rebels in Yemen stated that all shipping companies, except for Saudi vessels, can navigate safely.On September 11, the Houthi rebels officially announced that they would launch a large-scale and high-quality military operation against Saudi Arabia.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD falls toward $1,920 as the Fed appears poised to increase interest rates further

Daniel Rogers

Jan 31, 2023 16:13

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is falling towards the immediate support of $1,920.00. The precious metal has been demonstrating a topsy-turvy move with increased traction for the US Dollar Index (DXY) ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is slated for Wednesday. The Gold price is currently bidding in the range of $1,922-1,933 and is anticipated to continue volatile in the near future.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains following a massive sell-off on Monday, indicating confidence as the Fed is anticipated to pause the pace of increasing interest rates. Despite market pessimism, the USD Index is seeking to continue its breakout above the 101.80 resistance to near 102.00. In addition, the market participants' risk aversion is supporting the 10-year US Treasury yields, which have risen above 3.54 percent.

 

In addition to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, the release of United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data will heighten market volatility. The economic data is anticipated to be 170K, a decrease from the previous report of 235K.

 

The US labor market has remained exceptionally tight in CY2022 but the continuing of interest rate hikes by Fed chair Jerome Powell is denting the expression of optimism in producers. As a result of the bleak economic outlook, businesses are halting their recruitment efforts in an effort to maximize the utilization of their current workforce.