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September 6th - Japans opposition Democratic Party for the People held its leadership election on the 6th, with incumbent leader Yuichiro Tamaki defeating his rival, House of Representatives member Mikihiko Hashimoto, to be re-elected. His term will run until the end of September 2029. After his election, Tamaki stated that he will listen to opinions from all sides, strengthen ties between the party headquarters and local councilors and supporters, and begin preparations for the unified local elections next spring.On September 6, local time, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement saying that it had launched airstrikes on southern Lebanon that day. The IDF statement said the airstrikes were a response to Hezbollahs actions. Earlier that day, Hezbollah militants launched two drones at IDF soldiers operating in the southern Lebanon "safe zone." The IDF opened fire and shot down one of the drones; no IDF personnel were injured in the incident. According to the Lebanese Civil Defense, the attack has resulted in at least two deaths.According to Al Arabiya TV, the Israeli Defense Minister stated that Israel will not withdraw its troops from the safe zone in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms.September 6th - To further enhance the informatization and intelligentization of efforts to prevent telecommunications and online fraud and help the public effectively identify and prevent fraud, the "National Anti-Fraud AI" APP, independently developed by the Shanghai Municipal Public Security Bureau under the guidance of the Criminal Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, was officially launched recently. The "National Anti-Fraud AI" APP integrates big data, multimodal models, and intelligent agent technology. Users can input suspicious scenarios through their mobile phones, and the APP can complete risk assessment, identify fraudulent tactics, and push typical cases. It dissects fraud methods from multiple dimensions, including text, voice, and video, and provides identification and prevention strategies.On September 6, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that its navy struck a U.S. unmanned surface vessel attempting to enter Irans "protected zone" in the Strait of Hormuz. This came hours after the U.S. and Iran exchanged military strikes. The IRGC had previously warned all vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz not to be deceived by the U.S. military and to avoid conducting any "suspicious activities" in unauthorized routes, or they would become targets. The IRGC has repeatedly emphasized that control and management of the Strait of Hormuz is "solely the responsibility of the IRGC Navy," and any disruption to order in the strait will be met with a firm response.

Gold Price Prediction: XAUUSD bears eye a break beneath crucial support. $1,750

Alina Haynes

Nov 21, 2022 11:41

截屏2022-09-15 下午3.06.36.png 

 

Gold is trading flat at the open and straddles the $1,751 mark, having been lately pressured by the US Dollar, which posted its largest weekly gain in over a month as investors monitored rising bond yields and continued to wager on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike path.

 

The US Dollar index DXY, which compares the dollar to a basket of major currencies, increased by 0.03% to 106.93 and has recouped the losses sustained when US inflation data prompted the indicator's steepest weekly drop since March 2020. Friday was the second consecutive day of rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield closing at 3.821%.

 

Last week's earlier-than-anticipated US Retail Sales data put cold water on rumors of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. In addition, hawkish comments from Fed officials such as James Bullard helped dispel rumors that the central bank was nearing a pause, boosting the US dollar and yields. Kit Juckes, an economist at Societe Generale, stated that the process of reducing positions prior to the end of the year may have begun in earnest. He said, "2022 was a near-perfect storm favorable to the U.S. dollar, as it surged due to greater GDP, higher interest rates, favorable terms of trade, and geopolitical concerns. The liquidity situation is deteriorating, and positions are being reduced.

 

In the coming week, the Fed's minutes will give insight on the FOMC's deliberations regarding the anticipated slowdown in rate hikes. "However, officials will also underline that the terminal rate is expected to increase relative to previous projections if the labor market continues to be extremely tight. In terms of the data, experts at TD Securities anticipate a minor decline in the manufacturing PMI in November, with the index remaining above 50.

 

Regarding gold, researchers stated, "money managers continued to grow their net long in gold markets aggressively. The aggressive increase in net length is more likely attributable to weakening downside momentum signals than to a growing belief in the Fed pivot narrative, given that trend following remains the dominant return engine among money managers trading in the yellow metal, as demonstrated by the strong correlation between CFTC money manager positioning and our independent estimates of CTA positioning.

 

"In fact, money managers significantly covered short positions while adding just marginally to their long positions. Given that non-CTA money managers were also likely net short, this lately popular story may have played a part in explaining the magnitude of short covering in this week's data, noted the analysts.

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