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A fire has broken out at an oil refinery in Russias Bashkortostan and firefighting is underway, with the production site suffering minor damage, the regional governor said.British retailer Sainsburys confirmed it is in discussions to sell its Argos subsidiary to JD.com (JD.O).The Cyberspace Administration of China is soliciting public opinions on the "Regulations on Promoting and Standardizing the Application of Electronic Documents (Draft for Comments)".On September 13th, Trump released a letter to all NATO nations and the world. He stated, "I am ready to impose significant sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations agree and begin taking the same actions, and all NATO nations stop buying Russian oil." As you know, NATOs commitment to "winning this war" is far from 100%, yet some countries are still buying Russian oil, which is truly shocking! This significantly weakens their negotiating position and leverage with Russia. This is not Trumps war (if I were president, this war would never have happened!), but Biden and Zelenskys war. My sole purpose is to help end this war and save tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives. If NATO does what I say, this war will end quickly, and all these lives will be saved!On September 13, Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya revealed on the 12th that Poland acknowledged that a drone that recently entered Polish airspace may have originated from Ukrainian territory, stating that it was no secret that Ukraine "has been attempting to expand the geographical scope of the Russia-Ukraine conflict." This statement further complicates the Polish version of the Russian drones entry into Polish airspace. Several European and American experts, scholars, and politicians speculated that there may be a hidden story behind this incident.

Gold Price Prediction XAUUSD - Lower as Investors Seek Additional Clarity from the Federal Reserve

Alina Haynes

Nov 21, 2022 11:44

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After reaching its highest level in three months on Wednesday, gold futures declined on Friday and for the week. As hawkish Federal Reserve officials predicted additional interest rate hikes, investors began booking profits.

 

On Friday, Comex gold futures for February settled at $1769.00, a decrease of $8.80 or 0.50%. The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) closed at $69.04, down 1.10 points, or 1.57 percent.

 

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Fed Members Generate Uncertainty, Which Encourages Profit-Taking 

In response to a U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data that indicated an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate, gold futures have risen by over $100 this month since bottoming in the first week of November. The Fed's streak of 75 basis point rate hikes could come to an end if it decides to raise rates by 50 basis points in December, as a result of the unexpectedly low inflation report.

 

As hawkish comments from many Fed officials intensified last Wednesday, profit-takers began to enter the market. The central message from policymakers was that interest rates will rise.

 

In addition to reducing the rate of rate hikes from 75 basis points to 50 basis points, the Fed may also extend the duration of rate increases. This suggests that the terminal rate, or the rate at which the Fed finishes raising interest rates, could be significantly higher than anticipated.

 

The uncertainty regarding when the Fed will stop rising interest rates and how high they will be when they do is what encourages long speculations and drives prices lower. We are not observing the beginning of a trend reversal, but rather a "When in doubt, get out" mentality.

Bullard of the Fed Set the Bearish Tone 

Wednesday, as gold approached a three-month high, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard halted the rally with strong hawkish remarks.

 

Bullard stated that the Fed's target policy rate must increase to a range between 5.00% and 5.25% from its current level just below 4.00% in order to be "sufficiently restrictive" in containing inflation, though he would defer to Fed Chair Jerome Powell on how much higher to move rates in upcoming policy meetings.

Short-Term Prognosis

After reaching a high of $1791.80 last week, gold prices are currently dropping, with traders likely seeking a break into a value zone before re-entering the long side. Our goal zone is $1705.00 to $1684.60.

 

The market is expected to continue to be influenced by data, thus gold bulls will seek data that proves inflation is decreasing and the economy is faltering. This scenario will provide the Fed with more room to reduce its rate of tightening.

 

As Fed members stated, a single piece of data will not be sufficient to alter their hawkish tone. They want to see additional evidence that inflation is declining.