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Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD Holds Steady Near $1,960 Amid Weaker US Treasury Yields

Alina Haynes

Mar 28, 2023 14:55

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The XAU/USD pair rebounded after hitting a low of $1,944 on Monday, following a significant drop from $2,000 on Friday. As concerns about a banking crisis subsided on Monday, investors shifted away from safe-haven assets such as gold and into speculative assets such as equities and petroleum oil.

 

Monday's acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) assets by a regional U.S. lender, First Citizens BancShares, led to the unwinding of Gold trades. First Citizens announced that it would expand its presence in California by assuming $110 billion in assets, $56 billion in deposits, and $72 billion in loans. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) holds approximately $90 billion in securities for sale.

 

In addition, Bloomberg reported that US regulators are contemplating expanding an emergency lending facility for banks so that First Republic Bank (FRC) has additional time to strengthen its balance sheet.

 

These banking sector developments have increased investors' risk appetite and instilled a sense of composure. Consequently, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds make sense during a relief rally. This new development encourages the Federal Reserve (Fed) to concentrate on the inflation outlook and contemplate rate increases if required.

 

Recent Fed commentary from members such as Kashkari (a voter), ultra-hawkish Bullard, and Fed Vice-Chair of Supervision Barr suggests that inflation is a higher priority than the banking crisis. Fed officials appear comparatively resilient in the face of banking stress, asserting that the US banking system's underlying fundamentals remain robust.

 

Monday's increase in U.S. Treasury bond yields can be attributed to a relief rally, but it is too soon to conclude that it represents a definitive yield shift. Any further deterioration of the banking liquidity crisis could cause yields to decline and gold to reclaim the $2,000 threshold. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for the United States are scheduled for release later this week.

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