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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair recovers from $1,755 as Fed and US-China-inspired risk aversion subsides

Daniel Rogers

Aug 03, 2022 14:44

 截屏2022-08-02 下午5.45.57_1024x576.png

 

During Wednesday's Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) regains its intraday high above $1,765 while consolidating the largest daily decline in two weeks. In doing so, the yellow metal applauds the US dollar's retreat from its weekly high amid a lackluster Asian session. The recovery steps also take into account the more robust activity statistics from China.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls from the weekly high around 106.55 to 106.34 at press time as market risk aversion decreases in response to July's stronger China Caixin Services PMI. Consequently, the private services index for the dragon country increased to 55.5% from 48 predicted and 54.5 before.

 

Intraday, S&P 500 Futures increase 0.10 percent, while 10-year US Treasury rates decline 1.5 basis points (bps) to 2.72 percent at the latest.

 

Earlier in the day, the US-China spat over Taiwan attracted significant attention and prolonged the previous day's risk-averse sentiment, which impacted on gold prices. Recently, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense stated that China's drills surrounding Taiwan reflect the country's will to undermine regional peace and stability. It should be emphasized that China's warning to the United States not to play the Taiwan card and its pledge to punish Taipei independence advocates, as well as its restriction of natural sand shipments to the Asian economy, appeared to amplify the risk-averse sentiment and sink the US dollar. Concerns that squabbles between the world's top two economies may have further negative effects on the global economy exacerbated recession worries.

 

James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, dismissed worries of a US recession while supporting a 50 basis point (bps) rate rise. According to Reuters, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, stated that she is awaiting incoming data to determine whether the Fed should slow the rate rises or maintain the present pace. Reuters reported that Chicago Fed President Charles Evans expressed support for a 50 basis point (bps) rate rise at the September meeting if inflation does not improve. In addition, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, stated that she does not believe the US is experiencing a recession and that the job market is in excellent condition. She acknowledged, though, that inflation has not dropped "at all."

 

US Factory Orders for June and ISM Services PMI for July will combine headlines on China and the Federal Reserve to influence short-term XAU/USD movements.


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