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On March 23, Morgan Stanley analysts stated in a research report that if oil prices rise to $120 per barrel, it could pose a significant threat to economic growth in Asia. These analysts believe that a sustained increase of $10 per barrel in oil prices could directly negatively impact Asian GDP growth by 20 to 30 basis points. They pointed out that if oil prices reach $120 per barrel, Asias oil and gas spending will account for 6.3% of its GDP. If the conflict continues and commodity prices remain high, the effectiveness of policy buffers will also be weakened. If the conflict persists, central banks in the Philippines, Indonesia, India, and South Korea may have to raise interest rates starting from the end of the third quarter or the fourth quarter.The local governor said fuel storage tanks in the port of Primorsk on Russias Baltic coast caught fire after a drone attack.London police have launched an investigation into an arson attack on ambulances in Golders Green. Four ambulances belonging to the Jewish community emergency services center in Golders Green were destroyed by fire. The arson attack has been classified as an anti-Semitic hate crime.March 23rd - Lei Jun, during a live-streamed delivery of the new Xiaomi SU7 this morning, revealed that pre-orders for the new generation SU7 have exceeded 30,000 units. Test drives have officially begun at 492 stores in 143 cities nationwide. Lei Jun said that many people came to see the car over the weekend. From March 20th to 22nd, more than 50,000 people test drove the new generation Xiaomi SU7.On March 23, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), stated that the national passenger car wholesale growth rate for 2025 was 9%, and the new energy passenger car wholesale growth rate was 25%, successfully achieving the growth expectations for the new energy vehicle market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. With the expiration of the purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles at the end of the year, 2026 will see a period of sluggish new energy vehicle sales and a pre-Spring Festival rush to buy gasoline vehicles. However, the implementation of trade-in policies in most provinces and cities is slow, leading to weak demand from low- and mid-range consumers and a significant divergence in market trends. In February 2026, passenger car retail sales fell by 25%, significantly lower than the 14% decline in wholesale sales. The suspension of trade-in subsidies led to a drop in retail sales in January and February. Retail sales of A00-class sedans and economy MPVs were both low in February, with A0-class sedans and high-end SUVs becoming the main drivers of retail sales, and mid-to-high-end SUVs performing strongly.

Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD Is Being Offered and Is Approaching Critical Support

Larissa Barlow

Apr 25, 2022 10:17

Gold prices have been under pressure in Tokyo and have fallen to a new Asian session low of $1,927.50c, down 0.2 percent at the time of writing. The US dollar is firming at an hourly support level as the euro begins to stall on its opening bid following the French election results.

 

The XAU/USD bears are in early doors as the focus continues on the Federal Reserve, with market investors bracing for a faster-than-expected rate of reversion to neutral rates by the central bank.

 

"Rates continue to reprice higher as the market pencils in another rate hike in 2022, pricing in 10 additional hikes over the course of the year, implying a bigger overshoot of neutral. While gold prices have remained extremely resilient in the face of an aggressively hawkish Federal Reserve, as a protracted war in Ukraine simultaneously increased geopolitical uncertainty and inflation risks, fueling demand for safe havens, we see few participants remaining with an appetite to buy gold," TD Securities analysts said.

 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell proposed a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate hike in his presentation to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday. This has increased the likelihood of the Fed announcing a big rate hike in May monetary policy. Additionally, Powell stated that the US economy's multi-decade high inflation requires a rapid pace of interest rate hikes, implying that investors should brace for more than one 50 basis point rate hike announcement this year. Additionally, the market's risk-aversion trend is supporting the greenback versus the precious metal.

Technical Analysis of Gold

On an hourly basis, XAU/USD is bouncing below the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level at $1,931.56 (which corresponds to the March 29 low of $1,890.21 and last week's high of $1,998.43). The 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are contracting, confirming the downside tendency. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into a bearish area of 20.00-40.00, indicating the possibility of a new bearish impulsive wave. 

Gold Hourly Chart

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