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June 12th - In May, the total amount of cross-border RMB settlement under current account items was RMB 1.67 trillion, of which goods trade, services trade and other current account items were RMB 1.28 trillion and RMB 0.39 trillion respectively; the total amount of cross-border RMB settlement for direct investment was RMB 0.58 trillion, of which outward direct investment and foreign direct investment were RMB 0.22 trillion and RMB 0.36 trillion respectively.June 12th - At the end of May, the outstanding balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 284.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The outstanding balance of RMB loans at the end of May was 281.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. RMB loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan in the first five months. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 694.2 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and institutions increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. At the end of May, the outstanding balance of foreign currency loans was 553.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Foreign currency loans increased by 8.2 billion US dollars in the first five months.June 12th - At the end of May, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits reached 352.38 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of May was 344.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In the first five months, RMB deposits increased by 15.77 trillion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 5.63 trillion yuan, non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 1.91 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-bank financial institutions increased by 5.64 trillion yuan. At the end of May, the balance of foreign currency deposits reached 1.16 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. In the first five months, foreign currency deposits increased by 103.2 billion US dollars.June 12th - Preliminary statistics show that the total social financing scale for the first five months of 2026 reached 17.48 trillion yuan, 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, 1.38 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 115.3 billion yuan (equivalent to RMB), 211.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, 91.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, 57 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, 151.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of corporate bonds reached 1.67 trillion yuan, 757.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of government bonds reached 5.67 trillion yuan, 634 billion yuan less than the same period last year; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises reached 230.5 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year.June 12th - Preliminary statistics show that as of the end of May 2026, the outstanding amount of total social financing was 458.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Specifically, outstanding RMB loans to the real economy totaled 277.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; outstanding foreign currency loans to the real economy (converted to RMB) totaled 1.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%; outstanding entrusted loans totaled 11.22 trillion yuan, unchanged year-on-year; outstanding trust loans totaled 4.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; outstanding undiscounted bank acceptance bills totaled 2.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%; outstanding corporate bonds totaled 35.69 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; outstanding government bonds totaled 100.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%; and outstanding domestic shares of non-financial enterprises totaled 12.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.

Gold Price Decline Has Affects Technical Charts Significantly

Larissa Barlow

Apr 26, 2022 10:08

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Technical Analysis of Gold

As of 4:00 p.m. EDT, the most actively traded June 2022 gold futures contract was trading just under $1900 at $1899.40. This represents a net decrease of $35, or 1.82 percent. Metal's spectacular selloff today did cause major chart damage, as the gold opened and closed below its simple 50-day moving average. Market analysts use the 50-day moving average to determine the short-term market mood of a stock or commodity.

 

Gold traded down on Friday and finished just above the 50-day moving average, which is currently locked at $1936.60. Today, gold began at $1931.90 and went down to $1891.80 before modestly recovering. As of this writing, gold is barely holding on to the psychologically significant level of $1900 per ounce.

 

Throughout December and January 2021, gold prices consolidated and traded within a small and defined range both above and below three significant moving averages, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. All three moving averages were extremely close in price, with a difference of just under $10 per ounce between the shortest-term 50-day moving average and the longest-term 200-day moving average. The 50- and 100-day moving averages are now around $100 apart.

Fundamentals

This all changed in February, when two key variables shifted market sentiment from extremely positive to extremely bullish for gold. Genuine concerns about soaring inflation affected the financial scene in early February. In response to rising inflation, market participants began bidding up the price of safe-haven assets such as gold. The Labor Department's December 2021 CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data showed a year-over-year increase of 7%, 7.5 percent in January, and 7.9 percent in February.

 

At the moment, inflationary pressures are increasing, with the latest CPI data for March revealing that inflation is currently at 8.5 percent year over year, with food, energy, and housing expenses continuing to be the key commodities and services seeing price rises.

 

Second, on February 24, Russia began a massive invasion of Ukraine's sovereign state. Prior to February 24, Russia had stockpiled over 180,000 troops along its Ukrainian border. On the morning of the 24th, Russia moved forces into Ukraine from three fronts. Gold rose from January lows of $1779 to only $10 below the record high of $2088 as a result of these two factors. Gold prices reached their highest level this year on March 8, when they touched $2078 per ounce. Ukraine's invasion has escalated into a serious conflict between the two countries.

 

In the first week of March, market players began bidding down gold prices in expectation of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike since 2020, when the fed funds rate was cut to near zero. On March 17, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to increase interest rates by 14%. The Federal Reserve's new monetary policy has become highly aggressive, with rate hikes expected at each of the following FOMC sessions this year. Additionally, there is a good likelihood that two of the remaining rate hikes will be 12 percent apiece.

 

While the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, market participants in the United States have shifted their focus to rising yields on US debt instruments such as bonds and Treasuries, dimming gold's appeal as a non-interest bearing commodity.

Forecast of Prices

Our technical analysis indicates that gold's current support begins at $1885 per ounce, with strong resistance at the 100-day moving average, which is currently anchored at $1871.50.

 

Although gold prices are currently below their 50-day moving average, indicating that short-term market sentiment has switched from bullish to bearish, market technicians utilize the 200-day moving average to determine a stock's or commodity's long-term market mood. As long as gold prices continue above their 100- and 200-day moving averages, both short- and long-term market sentiment is bullish.

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