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On September 17th, after nearly a decade of negotiations, the European Union and Indonesia concluded trade agreement negotiations. This move is part of the EUs efforts to diversify its supply chains and expand into new markets. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill stated that EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will visit Indonesia on September 23rd to formally announce the agreement. Indonesian Trade Ministry spokesperson Kusuma Dewi stated that the two sides will issue a joint statement confirming the "substantial completion" of the negotiations. Before the agreement can enter into force, it must be ratified by a majority of EU member states, the European Parliament, and the Indonesian legislature.On September 17th, Convera strategist Antonio Ruggiero wrote in a report that while this weeks UK inflation and employment data further reduced the likelihood of further Bank of England rate cuts, the British pound remains vulnerable. He noted that structural headwinds persist for the pound, and that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected but issues cautious guidance, the pound could face downward risks. Ruggiero said the Fed is likely to reiterate its willingness to cut rates, but given that price pressures remain a "real concern," uncertainty remains about the future policy path. In this scenario, he said, the pound could fall back below $1.36.On September 17, Slovakias Economy Minister Denisa Sakova stated that as an EU member state, Slovakia will resist Trumps demand to cut Russian oil and gas imports unless the country secures sufficient alternative energy supplies. The minister noted that sufficient infrastructure must first be built to support alternative energy transport routes. Her remarks came in response to Trumps latest pressure push: his demand that all EU countries stop importing Russian energy, a move that would impact Slovakia and Hungary. Sakova stated that she made Slovakias position clear during her meeting with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Vienna this week. She said the Trump administration official expressed understanding and acknowledged the need for increased US investment in energy projects in Europe.On September 17th, Bank of Americas September European Fund Manager Survey showed that as concerns about the impact of US tariffs subsided and expectations of US interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment, investors optimism about global economic growth was growing. Bank of America stated that the market expected the EU economy to accelerate growth. The survey noted that "the net percentage of respondents who believe the global economy will slow has fallen to its lowest level since February this year."Turkish Airlines Chairman: We are still in talks with Boeing (BA.N) about purchasing 250 aircraft.

Gold Is at Risk As Treasury Rates Rise in Response to Powell's Efforts

Aria Thomas

Apr 02, 2022 09:52

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This environment may appear in two ways, both of which result in a lower gold price. Fixed interest assets' higher and growing nominal rates of return make them a more attractive alternative to non-yielding assets such as gold.


Second, if the Fed is regarded to be sincere in its efforts to lower gold price, market-priced inflation may decline. This results in an increase in the actual rate of return on debt investments. The real return is calculated by subtracting the nominal rate from the inflation rate over the same period.


As seen in the figure below, gold's recent gain corresponded with an increase in market-priced ten-year breakeven inflation. This resulted in a decline in ten-year real yields.


Following that gold high, the ten-year breakeven rate stayed reasonably stable, while nominal yields increased, raising real yields at the same time that gold plummeted.


If the Fed continues to see the necessity for rapid rate hikes, this might further damage gold.


The outlier to this view is the unknown effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, necessitating a deeper examination of the price action.


Gold, ten-year nominal US Treasury note, ten-year nominal US Treasury note inflation, and ten-year nominal US Treasury note real yield

Gold technical analysis

A double top and a head and shoulders configuration are also possible.


Gold reached an all-time high of 2,075.14 ounces in July 2020. Earlier this month, the price attempted but failed to reach it, instead reaching a height of 2,070.42, forming a double top. This inability to break higher may be seen as a negative indication.


A bearish head and shoulders pattern is developing, and a breach below the neckline might confirm it.


Risk management approaches are always critical and must be thoroughly examined.


This information was compiled by DailyFX, a Top 1 Markets partner site that provides premier currency news and analysis. This material is generic in nature and is not meant to influence anyone's investment or financial product choices.


The information on this website is not a record of trade prices, nor is it an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Top 1 Markets disclaims all liability for any use of these remarks and any resulting consequences. This material is provided "as is" with no guarantee or assurance as to its accuracy or completeness. As a result, anybody acting on it does so at their own risk.