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The Bank of Thailand stated that given the significant economic slowdown and increased risks, monetary policy could be further eased.December 17th - Analyst Justin Low commented on the UK CPI: Overall, there is some good news; price pressures are easing and beginning to show signs of further weakening, especially after months of no progress. However, unless services inflation also begins to slow more meaningfully, the Bank of England may still find it difficult to push for further rate cuts next year. At least for now, they can easily stick to their plan from this week. But looking ahead to next year, several months of inflation data will need to show a similar trend to support their view.According to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Region in the UAE, as of the week ending December 15, 2025, total refined product inventories at the Port of Fujairah were 20.142 million barrels, a decrease of 3.37 million barrels from the previous week. Specifically, light distillate inventories decreased by 431,000 barrels to 6.885 million barrels, middle distillate inventories decreased by 692,000 barrels to 2.576 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories decreased by 2.247 million barrels to 10.681 million barrels.December 17th - UK November CPI unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.6% in October, the lowest level in eight months, compared to market expectations of a 3.5% decline, although the Bank of England had predicted a slightly larger drop of 3.4% earlier this month. Financial markets had previously priced in a more than 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75% by the Bank of England on Thursday, although many economists believe this decision would be more balanced. Last month, the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep interest rates unchanged, breaking the quarterly rate-cutting rhythm that had been in place since 2024. Economists expect the Bank of England to cut rates by a narrow 5-4 margin in December.The governor of Central Bank Indonesia said that global economic growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2026 due to the impact of US tariff policies.

Gold Is at Risk As Treasury Rates Rise in Response to Powell's Efforts

Aria Thomas

Apr 02, 2022 09:52

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This environment may appear in two ways, both of which result in a lower gold price. Fixed interest assets' higher and growing nominal rates of return make them a more attractive alternative to non-yielding assets such as gold.


Second, if the Fed is regarded to be sincere in its efforts to lower gold price, market-priced inflation may decline. This results in an increase in the actual rate of return on debt investments. The real return is calculated by subtracting the nominal rate from the inflation rate over the same period.


As seen in the figure below, gold's recent gain corresponded with an increase in market-priced ten-year breakeven inflation. This resulted in a decline in ten-year real yields.


Following that gold high, the ten-year breakeven rate stayed reasonably stable, while nominal yields increased, raising real yields at the same time that gold plummeted.


If the Fed continues to see the necessity for rapid rate hikes, this might further damage gold.


The outlier to this view is the unknown effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, necessitating a deeper examination of the price action.


Gold, ten-year nominal US Treasury note, ten-year nominal US Treasury note inflation, and ten-year nominal US Treasury note real yield

Gold technical analysis

A double top and a head and shoulders configuration are also possible.


Gold reached an all-time high of 2,075.14 ounces in July 2020. Earlier this month, the price attempted but failed to reach it, instead reaching a height of 2,070.42, forming a double top. This inability to break higher may be seen as a negative indication.


A bearish head and shoulders pattern is developing, and a breach below the neckline might confirm it.


Risk management approaches are always critical and must be thoroughly examined.


This information was compiled by DailyFX, a Top 1 Markets partner site that provides premier currency news and analysis. This material is generic in nature and is not meant to influence anyone's investment or financial product choices.


The information on this website is not a record of trade prices, nor is it an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Top 1 Markets disclaims all liability for any use of these remarks and any resulting consequences. This material is provided "as is" with no guarantee or assurance as to its accuracy or completeness. As a result, anybody acting on it does so at their own risk.

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