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97.466
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Real-time News
I. Raw Material Market Updates 1. On May 13th, NYMEX crude oil futures for June delivery fell $1.16 to settle at $101.02/barrel, while Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell $2.14 to settle at $105.63/barrel. Naphtha rose $1 to $1021/ton CFR Japan. 2. On May 13th, Asian isomeric MX rose $42 to $1096/ton FOB Korea. Asian PX fell $17 to $1182/ton FOB Korea and $1203/ton CFR China. 3. On May 13th, ethylene prices in Northeast Asia remained flat at $1200/ton; prices in Southeast Asia remained flat at $1250/ton CFR. 4. In the morning, PTA futures fluctuated lower, and the spot market trading atmosphere was generally weak, with a weak spot basis. Offers at major ports for May delivery were at 09+145, bids were at 09+130, and the price negotiation range was 6410~6510. Next weeks warehouse receipt offers are expected to be around 06-10 or 09+145. No transactions were reported in the morning session. PTA futures fluctuated at low levels in the afternoon, with generally subdued trading in the spot market and a weak spot basis. This week and next weeks offers are expected to be around 09+130-135. 5. MEG domestic futures weakened in the morning, with the basis strengthening moderately. Currently, the spot basis is around a premium of 103-110 yuan/ton over the 09 contract, with negotiations around 4813-4820 yuan/ton. Several transactions in the morning were made around a premium of 96-110 yuan/ton for the 09 contract. The June futures basis is around a premium of 132-140 yuan/ton over the 09 contract, with negotiations around 4842-4850 yuan/ton. MEG domestic futures consolidated at low levels in the afternoon, with generally subdued trading. Currently, the spot basis is around 104-112 yuan/ton premium over the September contract, with negotiations around 4789-4797 yuan/ton. Next week, the spot September contract premium is expected to be around 110 yuan/ton. The June futures basis is around 135-145 yuan/ton premium over the September contract, with negotiations around 4820-4830 yuan/ton. 6. In the morning, the MEG international market weakened, and market negotiations were weak. A moderate amount of June paper contracts were negotiated around 615-620 USD/ton, with relatively stagnant trading. In the afternoon, the MEG international market consolidated at lower levels. Near-term shipments were negotiated below 620 USD/ton at the close, with intraday transactions around 615-630 USD/ton. A moderate amount of declared goods were traded around 640 USD/ton. 7. The third 600,000-ton unit of a 1.8 million-ton/year syngas-to-ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi Province began scheduled maintenance yesterday, expected to last approximately 18 days. II. Downstream Dynamics 1. Overall, production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak today, with average production and sales estimated at 20-30% around 3:30 PM. Production and sales figures for several factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 50%, 30%, 100%, 75%, 20%, 0%, 15%, 30%, 30%, 10%, 50%, 60%, 20%, 30%, 0%, 50%, 40%, 40%, and 20% respectively. 2. Sales of polyester staple fiber factories varied today. As of around 3:00 PM, the average production and sales were 79%, with some factories showing production and sales figures of 70%, 50%, 60%, 80%, 40%, 100%, 20%, 200%, 30%, 40%, and 20%. 3. Semi-dull 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber was mainly negotiated at 7950-8300 RMB/ton ex-factory or short-distance delivery in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, 8000-8300 RMB/ton cash on delivery in Fujian, and 8050-8450 RMB/ton delivered in Shandong and Hebei. 4. Today, the polyester chip market saw mixed trading activity, but overall remained positive. Semi-dull and bright polyester chips were mainly traded around 7320-7500 and 7550-7700 yuan/ton respectively. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, several semi-dull or bright polyester chips were traded at 7320, 7330, 7350, 7370, 7380, 7400, 7500, 7550, 7600, 7650, and 7700 yuan/ton for cash on delivery. 5. Trading activity in the polyester bottle chip market rebounded today, with significant price differences between high and low prices. Orders for May and June were mostly traded at 8700-8970 yuan/ton ex-factory, with some slightly lower at 8550-8680 yuan/ton ex-factory, and a small number slightly higher at 9040-9250 yuan/ton ex-factory. Prices varied slightly depending on the brand. 6. Polyester bottle chip factories continued to lower their export prices, with overall transactions mainly based on actual negotiations. In East China, mainstream bottle-grade PET chip manufacturers are negotiating prices ranging from $1180-1210/ton FOB Shanghai port, with slight variations in some areas and differences depending on the brand. In South China, mainstream prices are ranging from $1175-1205/ton FOB main port, with slight variations in some areas, and overall, discounts are negotiated based on volume. 7. A 200,000-ton polyester plant in Fujian has recently restarted, mainly producing polyester filament and a small amount of chips. 8. Due to reduced natural gas supply, Wankais Chongqing polyester bottle-grade PET chip plant reduced its overall operating rate by 10% in June.2018-2019: Trade Friction "Stress Test" 1. Challenges: Frequent tariff increases by the US government and heightened international trade tensions brought significant uncertainty to US economic growth and business investment. 2. Response Policies: Powell insisted on a gradual interest rate hike policy to consolidate the economy, while publicly stating that higher tariffs would ultimately harm the US economy and emphasizing that the Federal Reserve would not participate in trade policy formulation. After observing rising economic risks in 2019, he shifted to "preemptive interest rate cuts." 2020: COVID-19 Pandemic "Unlimited Market Rescue" 1. Challenges: The global spread of COVID-19 triggered a stock market crash in the US, with four circuit breakers triggered within 10 days; the US unemployment rate soared, once approaching 15%. 2. Response Policies: Powell demonstrated the qualities of a "crisis manager," taking unprecedentedly aggressive measures. ① A lightning-fast interest rate cut, rapidly lowering the benchmark interest rate to an ultra-low level of 0% to 0.25%. ② The launch of open-ended quantitative easing, massively purchasing Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, injecting massive liquidity into the market. ③ The establishment of multiple emergency lending programs, providing large-scale liquidity support to areas such as corporate bonds and municipal financing for the first time. 2021-2023: Inflation Misjudgment and the Most Aggressive Interest Rate Hike in 40 Years 1. Challenge: Massive monetary and fiscal stimulus, coupled with supply chain disruptions, pushed US inflation to a 40-year high, with the overall PCE annual rate surging to nearly 7% in June 2022. 2. Policy Response: Powell and the Federal Reserve adhered to the "inflation is temporary" theory for a long period in 2021, resulting in a significant lag in policy implementation. After acknowledging the misjudgment, Powell quickly initiated the most aggressive interest rate hike cycle since the 1980s. From March 2022, interest rates were rapidly raised to a 20-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%. 2023: Emergency Firefighting of the Banking Crisis 1. Challenge: Aggressive interest rate hikes exposed "interest rate risk," leading to the rapid collapse of several regional banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, due to the devaluation of their bond assets and depositor runs. 2. Policy Response: On the one hand, despite the impact of the banking crisis, the Federal Reserve persisted in raising interest rates by 25 basis points to control inflation, but its policy statement no longer committed to "continuous rate hikes." On the other hand, the Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the government, announced a new bank term funding program to provide loans to eligible banks and prevent the crisis from spreading. 2024-2026: The Dual Challenges at the End of the Term 1. Challenges: Powells final two years in office face two major challenges. ① Economic and Inflation Dilemma—The process of inflation decline has stalled, while the US economy is slowing and the job market is cooling; coupled with the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in 2026, the Federal Reserve will have to make a difficult trade-off between its dual mandates. ② Political Pressure Storm—After Trumps re-election, due to dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserves interest rate policy, he exerted unprecedented political pressure on Powell and the Federal Reserve through public pressure, threats of congressional investigations, and public calls for rate cuts, challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve. 2. Policy Responses: ① In monetary policy, Powell adopted a "stop-and-go" approach, initiating a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, but pausing again after inflation stickiness became apparent. This year, the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict and soaring energy prices exacerbated inflation concerns, leading Powell to maintain a wait-and-see stance, repeatedly emphasizing the need to be wary of the impact of geopolitical shocks on inflation expectations. ② In defending the Feds independence, Powell repeatedly and firmly refuted Trumps rate-cutting orders with legal and economic facts, issued statements strongly responding to the Justice Departments "criminal threats," and announced that he would remain a member of the Feds Board of Governors after his term as chairman ended.On May 14th, it was reported that in April 2026, the national used car market saw 1.6712 million transactions, a decrease of 6.73% month-on-month and 1.76% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 113.476 billion yuan. From January to April 2026, the cumulative used car transaction volume reached 6.4932 million vehicles, an increase of 2.93% year-on-year, representing an increase of 184,600 vehicles compared to the same period last year, with a cumulative transaction value of 426.358 billion yuan.Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK): It expects its sales revenue for the second quarter of 2026 to be between US$690 million and US$700 million.On May 14th, the Peoples Bank of China released its April financial statistics report. Preliminary statistics show that the total social financing in the first four months of 2026 reached 15.45 trillion yuan, 893 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Specifically, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 8.5 trillion yuan, 1.29 trillion yuan less than the same period last year; foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 103.6 billion yuan (equivalent to RMB), 213.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year; entrusted loans decreased by 94.1 billion yuan, a larger decrease of 99.4 billion yuan than the same period last year; trust loans increased by 300 million yuan, 45.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 51.3 billion yuan, 199.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year; net financing of corporate bonds reached 1.5 trillion yuan, 739.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year; net financing of government bonds reached 4.45 trillion yuan, 399 billion yuan less than the same period last year; and domestic equity financing of non-financial enterprises reached 200.8 billion yuan, 65.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
